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Phil's Forecast: U.S. Presidential Election '08

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Reps have won 4 of last 6 but Dems are 6-0 in bad economy since 1932.

Since 1932 Dems have just 9 losing POTUS elections, unfortunately five of them came from 1980-2004. McCain came to the Senate in 1991 and Gingrich established Reps as a Senate and HOR power from 1993-2000. They finished #2 in the polls in 2000 losing seats in DE, FL, MI, MN and MO. They led Congress for 24 straight months until they fell out of first in Nov 2002. I did not make many friends in the DP in 2004 when I pointed out that Kerry needed to win OH and that it would be a tough task with a young VP and an anti-gay marriage initiative on the ballot. The election was even worse than expected as they finished #2 in OH and FL and were outgained by 35 electoral votes with the campaign basically giving up down the stretch. That 2004 campaign was –31 in red state turnover and lost NM. The Dems returned 44 incumbents in ‘06 and I said they would have the most improved record of any house in Congress and could actually flirt with a winning season. After losing Lieberman and trailing the Reps by 11 they ended their 13-year losing streak. VHT Dem Obama won IL and was Senate Frosh of the Year. Despite the Surge in Iraq the key was a Rep culture that went from criticizing waste and corruption to getting indicted (Abramof) and justifying authorization of torture (Gonzales), and the Dems’ chances were the best here since 1976 (Wgate!). After knocking off Clinton 27-14 in IA, Barack suffered a tough loss in NH yielding voters over 40 yo but beat HC much worse than the final score indicated on Spr Tues with 13-9 edge in states and 838-826 delegate edge. BO won the next 11 before economy and latent racism did them in vs. HC in TX and OH, a loss that cost them a shot at locking up the nomination. McCain outgained Rep foes by a national best 26 delegates per state and this year actually brings more than the 1,575 listed delegates as he will add 85 superdelegates at the convention. Despite a winning record in the primaries, JM was outgained by $60m in fundraising. Obama does have Rev Wright but has 1m donors and a 4 pt lead in most polls w/ bigger leads in OH and PA. McCain is experienced and a vet but this is a loaded Obama campaign and 6 of my 8 sets of power rankings call for BO to become the first AfAm POTUS.