Introducing Pac Ten Week: The State of the League, or We For One Welcome Our Los Angelean Overlords
Rather than the usual parody, I thought it might be interesting to kick off Pac Ten Week with a look at the actual state of the conference under merciless Trojan rule. 2003 was USC's first outright conference title under Pete Carroll and the freshman campaign of this fall's fifth-year seniors (well, except Herschel Dennis):
| Pac 10 Win % | Avg. Margin | Avg. PS#* | |
| Southern Cal | .909 | + 21.2 | 16.9 |
| California | .697 | + 13.7 | 81.3 |
| Oregon | .606 | + 2.8 | 76.9 |
| UCLA | .576 | – 0.2 | 66.4 |
| Oregon State | .546 | + 0.7 | 100.1 |
| Arizona State | .455 | – 2.7 | 79.9 |
| Wash. State | .424 | – 2.9 | 152.0 |
| Arizona | .273 | – 10.7 | 77.8 |
| Stanford | .273 | – 12.9 | 93.7 |
| Washington | .242 | – 9.9 | 150.6 |
* - Starters only, according to the ratings and depth charts of Phil Steele. There are ambiguities and discrepancies in this number, and they are not significant.
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The initial goal of this post was to ask whether anyone had a shot at catching USC, but that's a boring exercise on a direct path to hyperbole (the answer, of course, is a decisive no: aside from the routine three-touchdown beatings and the outrageous advantage in the crucial right hand column above, the Trojans have finished #1, #1, #2 and #4 in the AP poll in the relevant seasons and return more game experience than in any of Carroll's first six years). Southern Cal is the king and will remain the king, hail, hail, etc.
But the parity through the middle of the league is more interesting: Oregon, UCLA, Arizona State, Oregon State and even Washington State, so indistinguishable to the rest of the country, really are indistinguishable year to year, so much so that the "average" conference game for each is decided by a field goal or less.

Everybody gets a turn.
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This is generally credited to the addition of a ninth conference game when the other power conferences are scrambling to take on I-AA fodder (only Arizona is dipping into the lower division in the Pac Ten this year, to play Northern Arizona), but those results don't begin to hold up according to opponents' win percentage, where the SEC rules without peer.
But consider that the Pac Ten hasn't put a second team in the BCS since 2002, evidence in itself of consistent intra-league sniping, and in that five-year span has sent four different runners-up to the Holiday Bowl, six different third place teams in six years to the Sun Bowl, four different programs in five years to the Las Vegas Bowl, etc. The class divisions beneath the king are too fluid for that.
Hence: no coup, no revolution. Just fighting for what you can get.
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15 comments
Comments
Differing Opinions
One might argue that those teams were not worthy of a BCS bid, but you would have a damned hard time proving it without resorting to fallacious reasoning.
Let us take the 2004 season as an example, because I am more familiar with its workings than that of the 2005 season. Without proving one's inability to understand elementary logic, can anyone provide any sort of reasoning to claim that Texas deserved the Rose Bowl bid more than Cal? If bowl results crossed your mind, then I demand that you be labeled an idiot. After the fact knowledge cannot be used as justification for the fact. Cal came within 7 yards (memory hazy due to repression) of beating the #1 team while Texas was FUCKING SHUT OUT by a team of infinitely lesser merit.
Where the hell is the intra-league sniping in that? 2005 was Oregon being passed over in favor of media darling Notre Dame.
2 of the 4 years disagree with your statement.
by Bear from Sacramento on Aug 14, 2007 8:01 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
It's a factual statement
Now, on your actual point, I have no opinion on Cal's snub - they were worthy, but so was Texas, somebody's getting screwed - but I never bought Oregon as a BCS team.
My point from a predictive standpoint is that, over time, no team has set itself up as a plausible contender with USC. Usually there is a viable second place team, but they're hard to peg, and it's a different team every year. Cal has built a little consistency, but they also lost to Arizona last year, same as UCLA did by a huge margin back in '05. I'm trying to say that there is very little stability year to year, or even week to week.
by SMQ on Aug 14, 2007 9:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
7-6 Does Not Mean Pushover.
You talk as though an intraleague hierarchy is somehow a good thing. My goodness, if we could only have Vandy/Miss State/Miss/Kentucky vs. LSU games every day of the week!
You've missed a key point about the Pac 10. All the major conferences have 2-4 cupcakes. As of 2006 (not prior!), the Pac 10 has just one, Stanford.
This is why the Pac 10 is the strongest CONFERENCE. They do NOT, as has been pointed out many times, have the best teams, that honor goes to the SEC. But top to bottom this is the toughest conference. Check out the Pac-10's record against the Big 10 and Big 12 over the past 2 years.
by Bay Area Bear on Aug 16, 2007 2:09 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I understand, and agree with the premise
No second team has managed to definitively remove themselves from the pack although I might be willing to argue that Cal has, but I would not have any hard evidence to support such assertions. It is worth mentioning that Cal's recruiting of Quarterbacks has been successful as of late which should prevent any 2005 scenarios from repeating (that team would have been a force had Rodgers stayed for his senior year). How often do teams lose their starting QBs to a season ending injury, then learn that their prized JC transfer back-up cannot "handle the mental aspects of being a starter at the D-1A level"?
Why did you have to mention the Arizona game? I had almost repressed all memories of that game, and then you bring it up. Murphy decided to take part in the outcome of that game which is not to absolve the team of the blame they deserve for the lackadaisical attitude in which that game was played.
When Cal wins the lawsuit against the city of Berkeley, and if Karl Dorrell manages to keep his job, then I am sure you will see Cal distance themselves from the rest of the muddled middle.
by Bear from Sacramento on Aug 14, 2007 10:09 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Not quite right
(only Arizona is dipping into the lower division in the Pac Ten this year, to play Northern Arizona)
Well, except for Oregon State hosting Idaho State on September 15th.
Turns out that despite everybody's fawning over the Pac 10's non-conference schedule, on average an SEC team plays more BCS NC opponents than a Pac 10 team (1.17 to 1.10)
by JPK on Aug 14, 2007 10:26 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
How Disingenuous of you
Oh, and Pac-10 teams happen to play 9 conference games which is more than the SEC.
by Bear from Sacramento on Aug 14, 2007 10:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
How un-ingenuous of you
Heck, the fact that they play 9 conference games is counterproductive. That gives 'em five easy wins with less opportunity to play somebody good.
by JPK on Aug 14, 2007 11:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Continued Southern Idiocy
Has the SEC used the added game as an opportunity to play more quality opponents? HELL NO. The Conference has used it to increase their winning percentage and the number of bowl eligible teams by scheduling patsies. The louts who follow the various conference teams then tout their conference winning percentages. The conference decided to make money at the expense of fair play or correctly determining a champion.
by Bear from Sacramento on Aug 14, 2007 11:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Awesome
by jonathantu on Aug 15, 2007 9:14 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
it's what we do
by SMQ on Aug 15, 2007 10:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well spoken, SMQ
On the flip side my commentators usually offered me Cialis, so... hey... Cialis.
by jonathantu on Aug 16, 2007 1:09 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Why is it SEC/Pac-10 getting into it so often?
by Beatuofa on Aug 16, 2007 3:42 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
or
by Bay Area Bear on Aug 16, 2007 11:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The SEC has been exposed.
If it weren't for the Bruin upset of Troy last year those guys in cardinal gold would be sporting some nice gator shoes.
by BruinBrujo on Aug 21, 2007 6:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I beg to differ
by jonathantu on Aug 21, 2007 8:44 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

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