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BLOG POLLIN': WEEK NINE BALLOT

BlogPoll Ballot, Week Nine
This is not a power poll.
1. LSU (7-1)
2. Arizona State (7-0)
3. Oregon (6-1)
4. Oklahoma (7-1)
5. Ohio State (8-0)
6. Boston College (7-0)
7. Kansas (7-0)
8. South Florida (6-1)
9. Missouri (6-1)
10. West Virginia (6-1)
11. Florida (5-2)
12. Virginia (7-1)
13. Georgia (5-2)
14. UCLA (5-2)
15. Alabama (6-2)
16. South Carolina (6-2)
17. Virginia Tech (6-1)
18. California (5-2)
19. Kentucky (6-2)
20. Auburn (5-3)
21. Penn State (6-2)
22. Connecticut (6-1)
23. Michigan (6-2)
24. Southern Cal (6-1)
25. Illinois (5-3)
Waiting: Texas, Texas A&M, Wake Forest, Wisconsin, Oklahoma State, Cincinnati, Tennessee, Rutgers, Boise State, Texas Tech
- - -
Unless you’re a Buckeye partisan or otherwise think Ohio State deserves its number one status everywhere else because it’s Ohio State, competition be damned, I think this is about as uncontroversial as ballots come – maybe a little too straight, under normal circumstances, too willing to promote and drop uncritically. LSU holds fast at number one, which is very obvious given the Tigers’ set of high profile wins, but the sextet behind them is virtually pure, conventional AP-ish advancement. Minus losers South Florida, South Carolina, Kentucky and California, the only change from the order of last week’s top dozen and this week’s top eight is OSU leapfrogging Boston College (adding Michigan State vs. adding a bye helps even those resumés) and Kansas hopping Missouri after its win in Boulder; the Arizona State-Oregon-Oklahoma trio just shifted upward by virtue of not losing. ASU didn’t play and Oregon and Oklahoma added just enough value in Washington and Iowa State to stay in front of the fast-gaining Buckeyes and Jayhawks. It’s not a wide margin:
AZ State Oregon Oklahoma Ohio State Boston Coll. Kansas
Michigan Missouri
Texas
Oregon St. Miami Purdue Wake Frst. K-State
Colorado Fresno St. Michigan St. GA Tech Colorado
Washington Washington Washington
Stanford Stanford Tulsa N'western
Wash. State Houston Iowa State NC State Baylor
Wash. State Minnesota Bwlng. Green Cent. Mich.
S.D. State No. Texas Kent State Notre Dame Toledo
S.J. State Utah State Akron Army Fla. Int'l.
Y'town State UMass SE Louisiana
California Colorado

This is pretty straightforward, although it should be noted it’s only a rough guide: for instance, I’d condense the sequence under Oregon from Fresno State through Washington State into one big mashup and take the average, because there aren’t that many tiers between those teams; as a loss, Colorado is much more damaging than Cal, especially under the specific circumstances of Oregon’s loss to the Bears. But as a rough guide, it works. I like the big wins at the top of Oklahoma’s schedule (even Miami, considering the extent of the beatdown) and the fact that ASU and Oregon, merely by virtue of playing in a league with nine conference games, where the presumptive bottom-dweller upset the five-time defending champion on the road, don’t have as much extraneous chaffe at the bottom of their resumés. North Texas, Utah State and Florida International are I-A teams in name only and, given what we’ve seen from the top of the Championship Subdivision this year, probably wouldn’t even qualify for the I-AA playoffs.

Under most circumstances, Arizona State wouldn’t be rewarded with a number two spot for its triumphs against mediocrity without a more valuable notch on its belt, but its competition is either in the same position, lacking a marquee win, or has other mitigating evidence, i.e. a loss. All the undefeated teams here will be stepping up in competition over the next month, and the order isn’t likely to change that much if they all keep winning, specifics of hypothetical wins notwithstanding.

Anyway, re: controversy, I’m still one of the leading contenders for both "Mr. Bold" and "Mr. Manic-Depressive," again, so either I’m crazy or the other five dozen voters in this week’s poll are. What is wrong with you people?

There’s only one element of this poll that’s really manic-depressive relative to last week’s effort, and it’s West Virginia rocketing ahead of Florida, Georgia and Virginia to the eleventh spot. Mississippi State is not a terrible team (MSU’s win over Auburn, and the Tigers’ subsequent success, is still a boon to strength of schedule in the SEC, even moreso than Stanford’s win over USC in the Pac Ten, because the Bulldogs are hovering around .500 for the time being by virtue of not losing to mid-major schools) and the Mountaineers did crush State more than any SEC team to date save LSU, but I’m having a hard time explaining how exactly that win allowed WVU to move past Florida after the Gators beat Kentucky. My only defense is that I’m beginning to feel like a dramatically overrated Florida last week, with great flops by Tennessee and Ole Miss and a third loss by Auburn Saturday pushing that idea along. Again, all I can say is that this is close and it is being monitored.

Biggest drop without losing: Southern Cal, whose win over Notre Dame actually detracted from the average value of the Trojans’ schedule – beating the Irish right now is about the equivalent of beating San Jose State  – and allowed SC to get hopped by a string of big wiinners: the aforementioned Gators and Mountaineers, Virginia, UCLA, Alabama, UConn and Michigan (hello, Michigan). On Penn State being in front of Michigan, I plead the Fifth, but e-mail me and I’ll send you a spreadsheet that may or may not explain anything and that your computer probably won’t be able to open, anyway. Ditto on Illinois remaining in the poll, which doesn’t quite seem right, but I ask you: who else? Wake Forest? Texas? Texas A&M? Wisconsin, which lost to Illinois two and a half weeks ago?

This will be completely different next week. Hopefully more on the Buckeyes this afternoon.

0 recs  |  Comment 7 comments

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two things
  1. Is Virginia really that good?  I feel that they would lose to a litany of teams you have ranked lower.
  2. PSU over Michigan?  Are the losses the basis for your rationale?  I guess I can't really gripe all that much.  Michigan has better wins (PSU, Illinios, Purdue, Northwestern all at least 5-3 vs Indiana, Wisconsin) but also worse losses (App St (!), Oregon (beatdown) vs Michigan, Illinois).  

by georgiablue on Oct 24, 2007 2:17 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Virginia
  1. "Is Virginia really that good?" It's won the games it's won. That's all I'm looking at. If not for the opening loss to Wyoming, which was a terrible, terrible performance by UVA, the rest of the resume would probably make the Cavs a top five team by these standards. Their strength of schedule - not the margins of victory, but the difficulty - is at least as good and probably slightly better than Ohio State's and Boston College's right now.
  2. I said I'd e-mail the PSU-Michigan breakdown to anyone who asks. It's not groundbreaking or anything. The exclamation point behind App State there pretty much explains it.

by SMQ on Oct 24, 2007 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Virginia
Really trying to understand the basis for putting Virginia so high. Their strength of schedule rank based on the games already played is 62. This is eight spots lower than Va Tech (54), who has the same record and lost to LSU, not Wyoming. That's not mentioning the four two-loss SEC teams you have ranked below the Hoos with SoS in the top 30. I've watched them eek out the wins against decent teams, yet haven't been too impressed. Maybe you know something I don't.  

 

by SMP on Oct 24, 2007 5:07 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

K State vs Wake Forest
I want to say that wins over K State and Wake Forest are not on the same level, except I can't decide which is worse

by FactPig on Oct 24, 2007 6:57 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

LSU
I continue to marvel that so many can have the opinion that LSU is the best team in the country yet they have proven that they are not better than Kentucky.
DaddyFads

by DaddyFads on Oct 25, 2007 11:06 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

That's a tired line
Nobody could ever come up with a top 20 poll if they always implemented the transitive rule.  On any given Saturday an inferior team can pull off an upset.  Take your example and expand on it:  LSU beat South Carolina who beat Kentucky who beat LSU.  How do you rate those three teams them by your simplistic criteria?

by crepuscular on Oct 25, 2007 2:45 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Thanks, crepuscular
There may be a valid argument against LSU at number one, Daddy, but that's not it.

by SMQ on Oct 26, 2007 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

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