MEET YOUR FRONTRUNNER: OHIO STATE
by SMQ on Oct 24, 2007 5:37 PM EDT
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There's one area this year in which Ohio State has been consistently terrible: kick returns. The Buckeyes average under 17 yards per return, worst in the nation, with a single return over 30 yards and none over 40.
This could be because OSU intensely misses Ted Ginn. Or, more likely, a simple lack of opportunity: the Buckeyes have only returned 16 kickoffs in eight games, by far the fewest in the country (the only team even close to so few returns, Kansas, actually leads the nation in return average), which is just a cross to bear, I guess, for any team that leads the nation in scoring defense, total defense and pass efficiency defense, that ranks second against the run and has held seven of eight opposing offense to seven points or less.
| Points | Total Yards | Yds./Play | |
| AKRON | -18.5 | -219.6 | -3.1 |
| WASHINGTON | -13.0 | + 8.5 | -1.1 |
| NORTHWESTERN* | -27.9 | -330.9 | -4.0 |
| MINNESOTA | -22.8 | -161.3 | -2.0 |
| PURDUE | -28.8 | -162.3 | -2.0 |
| KENT STATE | -18.3 | -124.3 | -1.8 |
| MICHIGAN STATE* | -27.4 | -150.6 | -2.4 |
| Average | -22.4 | -162.9 | -2.3 |
* - Northwestern scored on a kickoff return and Michigan State on two defensive touchdowns, included in season scoring averages but not in points vs. OSU.
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Carl Bonnell's H*i*m*n moment was on 4th-and-13 at the OSU 32, with Washington hopelessly trailing at home, 27-7, with about a minute to play, when he hit Marcel Reese for a 25-yard gain that put Washington over its season average in total yards against the Buckeyes. It took a while to get there, but no other team has come anywhere near the outer limits of the adjacent zip code to its typical output, so we have to assume it was a titanic effort on the part of Bonnell and Reese and the spirits of great Huskies past filling them with the desire to persevere for one last, meaningless touchdown (which U-Dub got two plays later to cut the final to a slightly misleading 27-14).
As a matter of fact, while we're reviewing historic lows for Minnesota's defense and Notre Dame's offense, there's this to note about the Buckeyes:
| Year | Team | Yds. Allowed/Game | Yds./Play |
| 2000 | TCU | 245.0 | 3.8 |
| 2001 | Texas | 236.2 | 3.8 |
| 2002 | TCU | 240.3 | 3.6 |
| 2003 | LSU | 252.0 | 4.02 |
| 2004 | N.C. State | 221.4 | 3.5 |
| 2005 | Virginia Tech | 247.6 | 4.1 |
| 2006 | Virginia Tech | 219.5 | 3.8 |
| 2007 | Ohio State | 208.5 | 3.3 |
Someone wrote me and wanted to point out that the Buckeyes had forced more punts this season (73) than they had allowed points (63, including the non-offensive scores), so throw that in there, too.
This may or may not mean anything for the next month, or beyond it, to the mythical championship. It's not possible to overlook the relative wimpiness of that schedule - of the seven I-A opponents, there are three wins against teams with winning records, those three teams with two wins over teams with winning records, those two with just one win over a team with a winning record, and so on - and it's not like Ohio State is foreign to the position of poll frontrunner, assumed for part of 1995, most of 1998 and all of last year by great teams that fell short of the mythical championship. The 2002 team that won the crystal ball was never number one and was so unimpressive at times on its route to the Fiesta Bowl that there was even some wistful chatter that one-loss Georgia or Iowa might be more deserving.
Boeckman: Better than you think. So far.
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This team seems to most closely resemble that one in philosophy, for obvious reasons, but is possibly better in every phase (excluding kick returns, of course). Certainly it's showed more alpha, throat-stomping killer instict than never-say-die will. Todd Boeckman is a beacon of efficiency but also, contrary to the lo-fi reputation of Tressel Ball, the national leader in
We do not know yet whether all that is a mirage born of schedule that, at year's end, more likely than not will fail to feature an opponent ranked in the top 20. Right now, the concern is only that the schedule to date has either inflated OSU's dominance or somehow left it unprepared for the unquestionably stiffer stretch run; because this is Ohio State, after all, there is none of the skepticism currently hounding its fellow unbeatens about OSU's legitimacy as a mythical championship contender or its chances of securing a spot . Ohio State doesn't need any help - we're all aware of the scenario here: if the Buckeyes win, they're in, whatever the proven merits of Arizona State or Boston College at the end of the year.
The general consensus seems to be that Penn State will be the first team to challenge the premises, so to speak, on the same field OSU last lost in the regular season two years ago, but after watching the Lions against Indiana, I find this dubious - Jay Paterno and Anthony Morelli, against the defense of the decade? I should note that I've barely seen snap one of Ohio State, and might find some of the hyperbole suggested by the numbers equally sketchy, as I did with last year's defense, right up to the point I picked it to stifle Florida for the championship. This closing month, Penn State, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan, it may be the best the Big Ten has to offer, but it's not much. All four of those teams have played two consecutive, head-slappingly bad games at some point already this season. So if Ohio State really is all that, I'm not sure we'll know it before January. And by that time, well, you know.
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OSU
I started into a post comparing last year's OSU D to this year's, realized it was going to be far too long given my current time constraints, and thus scrapped it. Suffice to say that the '07 back seven >> the '06 back seven, while the '06 front four > the '07 front four. Thus, '07 D > '06 D. Or so I think. Bummer this is the year OSU doesn't have a marquee non-conference game (the next decade sees home-and-homes w/ Southern Cal, Miami, Cal, Va Tech, and Oklahoma...fun times).
One last note: OSU starts zero seniors on D and just one on O (though early entry will inevitably take its toll on that).
by osuvandy on Oct 24, 2007 7:42 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Vandy/OSU
Is there more than one of us Vandy/OSU hybrids?
by TallBill on Oct 25, 2007 10:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
OSU to Vandy
by osuvandy on Oct 25, 2007 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The 2007 Buckeyes
On Defense:
The secondary is spectacular -- better than that really great 2002 defense. Lots of depth, even in a very young crew. They do this weird thing where they take the #1 lockdown corner, Malcolm Jenkins, and they switch him to safety in the nickel package. Thus, he's not "taken out of the play" by the opposing team's best receiver. He's free to roam the field and make plays on the ball.
It is very dangerous to pass against the OSU defense. I doubt there is a team that will have more TD passes than interceptions against this D.
The linebackers are outstanding, with Laurinaitis anchoring the middle and having an incredible nose for the ball, and Freeman and Grant both being big, fast, and experienced.
The d-line distinguishes itself from this group in being merely good, rather than great. This is how the 2007 D differs from the 2002 national championship squad. The 2002 D had a dominant d-line and an adequate secondary (they relied on moving Chris Gamble from receiver to corner early in the year and having him pick it up through the season). They won by overwhelming the opponent at the line and getting pressure. The 2007 D has an awesome secondary and great linebackers, but relies less on pressure up front.
On Offense:
The team is chock full of young talent with a potentially devistating combination of speed and power. Chris Wells is obviously a load to bring down. Brandon Saine is a true freshman, but already seeing the field a good bit. He's the guy who broke Ted Ginn's state track records in high school. In addition to hand-offs, those short passes to him are always a threat to go the distance. Brian Robiskie has some of the best technique of any receiver in college football. Brian Hartline runs great routes and catches everything thrown his way.
Todd Boekman is in his first year as a starter, and playing much better than could have been expected. He's somewhat in the mold of Craig Krenzel in that he's big and tough. He doesn't quite have Krenzel's athleticism, but has a much better arm that gives the offense that devastating balance of pass and run. With Todd going long to Robiskie, dumping off to Saine, or hitting Hartline or one of the tight ends, it becomes much harder for any defense to deal with Chris Wells at running back.
Even with all this talent and a diverse attack, the offense is where this team might falter if indeed it does get beat in these last four games. The offensive line has improved in run blocking, but can be inconsistent in pass protection. With Todd being a first-year guy, he will make sketchy decisions under pressure. That combination led to a pick-6 and fumble-6 last week versus Michigan State, and it's enough to cause a loss against a good defense, if the ball bounces the wrong way.
I expect this weekend's game at Penn State to be a key test. The weather is expected to be bad, which means the PSU offense may be less inclined to throw (thus negating some of OSU's advantage in the secondary). If OSU's offense has to pound it out, they may lose some of their balance and dynamism. Plus it's a night game in their stadium in front of 109,000 totally pumped up fans.
That said, I'm still predicting an OSU sweep of the final four games and a trip to the national title game. I'm a believer in this team, with a truly great defense and a less consistent offense that is chock full of weapons. I also sense a steady confidence in the players and coaches this week that I think is what they need to deal with the pressure cooker in Happy Valley.
by TallBill on Oct 25, 2007 10:46 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Tested
Before game with Purdue: "This is the week OSU will be tested, on the road, hostile crowd, night game." Nah.
I am sure this is the week OSU will be tested: "on the road, hostile crowd, night game". Nah, heard it before.
We have learned more about each of these teams now that OSU beat them, but before those games, those were supposed to be tests too. If OSU beats Penn State, in a couple of weeks, they too will not be remembered as being a benchmark game.
by mikeg on Oct 25, 2007 11:35 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
First real test for the offense though...
However, we have played some good offenses, which makes our defensive stats even more impressive. MSU, Purdue, NU and even Wash and Minny have been putting up big numbers on O. Even Kent State went well over 400 total yards against Kentucky. Of the SEC!!1ONE!
PSU is a much stronger test, since they have a true homefield advantage, and excellent defense. It will be interesting to see how our offense performs. On the other hand, I cannot fathom how PSU's offense, under Morelli, will be able to do much of anything against this defense.
by Pants McPants on Oct 25, 2007 12:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed.
by SMQ on Oct 25, 2007 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
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