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New Blog: Voodoo Five for South Florida Bulls Fans!

SOUTH FLORIDA MAY BEGIN LOSING NOW

And Boston College and Missouri. Fun while it lasted. Mid-October, though, time to get real. Kansas and Cincinnati, we just assume you'll be going down, anyway, but for the record, hurry up with that, would ya? Actually, no. Scratch that: forget you were acknowleged at all.

The first BCS rankings drop Sunday on FOX, and USA Today deserves some credit for devoting the bulk of a roundup column this morning to the pre-emptive dissing of USF...on FOX:

The criticism of No. 5 South Florida began even before Sunday's release of the first Bowl Championship Series rankings. On Fox's NFL pregame show last weekend, former Miami Hurricanes coach Jimmy Johnson said USF doesn't belong in the Top 5. He also said there are several two-loss teams that could wear the Bulls out.
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Grothe, hmmm? Needs to be catchier...how about, 'Boeckman?' And maybe get him in some red...
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One of those teams, I'm guessing: Auburn, which, courtesy of its wins over Kansas State and Florida, has been the most impressive two-loss team of the first half of the season. The Tigers also lost to South Florida. Theoretically, yes, Auburn could wear the Bulls out, if Johnson is bent on institutionalizing a hypothetical reality because Bo Jackson was a man, I'll tell ya. Craig James and Doug Flutie were less outright dismissive during Wake Forest's win over Florida State Thursday night, but they did circle the Bulls in the top five, make comments to the effect of "WTF?" and "this is crazy!" and maintain a general air of incredulity.

And as USA Today makes clear in a separate article this morning by the same writer, Kelly Whiteside, devoted exclusively to the early BCS projections, there is no room for the Bulls or anyone else who was standing outside the club in August: in a scant analysis (a blistering 412 words) on the national picture as it's likely to appear Sunday afternoon, USF isn't mentioned once. Neither is any team, in fact, outside of the presumed top three, and since LSU is hermetically sealed at the top unless/until something drastic happens, we have our early narrative: it's Cal versus Ohio State.

After last week's games, analyst Jerry Palm of CollegeBCS.com had the Buckeyes No. 2 in his projected standings. However, Palm says it's too difficult to predict who will be No. 2 Sunday assuming LSU, Cal and Ohio State win.

"Since Cal and Ohio State are so close, it won't take a lot to flip them," Palm says. "For example, if Cal struggles against Oregon State and Ohio State blows up Kent State, Ohio State would be No. 2 in the polls (USA TODAY Coaches and Harris). Or turn it around and say Cal wins big and Ohio State struggles, and all of a sudden Cal's thin margin over Ohio State is huge."

Ohio State is No. 4 to Cal's No. 5 in the projected computer average, though Palm cautions, "There's a lot of variance in the computers this time of year."
- - -

"Variance" = "Malfunctioning," such as ranking some combination of South Florida, Boston College, Arizona State or Missouri second and third, respectively - the exact order is uncertain, since Palm's projections are behind a pay wall and the article doesn't once mention which teams they currently forecast in those not-at-all crucial positions. Don't worry, though, because "this isn't the one that counts," and those lovable underdogs will be out of the picture by the time it does. Until then, CAAALIFORNIA! High-flying princes of the Pacific!...OHIOOOO STATE! Omnipotent overlords of the Oooolentangy!...(And don't forget about USC!)

I'm not foolish enough to think there's any chance that any undefeated member of the LSU-OSU-Cal triumverate would be denied a championship slot unless it was by the other two, and really, it's way too early to be thinking about this. Which is, maybe...yes, okay, this is the point: it's too early to begin separating the "real" championship contenders from the chaffe when, in a month, when it's LSU and eight one-loss teams gnashing their teeth in the rearview, it will all look like chaffe. The narrative has changed on a weekly basis - lord, we're setting up Ohio State or Cal as a frontrunner - and will continue to change on a weekly basis, as is its nature. So of course Palm is right that these rankings do not matter.

The discussion about them will always matter, though, because the human element is responsible for two-thirds of the BCS championship formula and humans are swayed by these opinions. Mostly old humans who have never seen South Florida play a full game, some of whom, I guarantee, have never seen USF play a down, can't name the coach and don't know the mascot. It has to be demonstrated to them somehow that USF and Cincinnati and Boston College are what their records and subsequent rankings say they are, which is "good." If they keep winning - USF and Boston College should be favorites throughout, Cincinnati in every game but USF and probably West Virginia -  we'll be back to the same argument we had well into November last year, until Cincy knocked off Rutgers: Is the Big East/ACC good enough to send a champion to the mythical title game?

My tentative answers is "yes," depending on the specific resumé of that champion (undfeated USF would have an edge right now on undefeated Cincinnati, for example, by virtue of its win over Auburn), but it's too early to tell that story. Which is why the book should be still open to everyone.

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I should remind readers no blog wants South Florida to fail quite like this one. But facts is facts.

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Great point
Fantastic article - thanks for the link on the "narrative." Good stuff there.

by RotoJeff on Oct 12, 2007 12:11 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

You, too, can be a BCS pundit
Jerry Palm's site is subscription, but Kenneth Massey also publishes the rankings that go into the formula on his 1-A rankings summary page.

Most of the premium content on collegeBCS.com has to do with Jerry's analysis of what the voters in the human polls are likely to do (and prior to official publication, his estimations of what the computer components look like.)

Anyone who's followed the human polls for any length of time knows pretty much what they'll look like following a given weekend (pretty ugly...) and therefore what the BCS rankings will likely be.

by JPK on Oct 12, 2007 12:58 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

The narrative was interrupted...
...when USC had the audacity to lose, but it is impressive how quickly the shift to Cal against Ohio State has gathered force.

Cal is highly vulnerable, and I imagine they will have 1 or more losses far before the current storyline will have much time to germinate. Ohio State though, with what looks to be a genuine defense, might just make it through the Big 10 slate.

If so, the story will be OSU against the SEC again. That seems to be a storyline the media can sink its teeth into.

by Mergz on Oct 12, 2007 2:06 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Great post
It will only get worse for USF. Last year everyone in the college football universe sent their collective goodwill to rutgers/bad voodoo vibes to UofL after we beat WVU and made it to #3. All we heard was how bad Big East defenses were. Then OSU/Michigan scored MORE points and the re-match debate kept going and their offenses were praised as unstoppable. Sickening.

When really all pro-playoff or +1 game college football fans should have rooted for an undefeated UL to make the MNC over 1-loss Florida/USC/Michigan types last year, because that might have been the tipping point for the traditional powers to come up with another way to protect their self-appointed place at the top of the college football food chain.

Watch this year: If USF wins out, it will be despite their lackluster offense. But when they are being held up against a 1-loss historical power, their low scoring victories will be used against them.

And FOX having their NFL guys talk college football is about has helpful as having FOX News commentators debate Brazilian politics: they don't know what they're talking about but their biases are still going to shine through. I almost threw the remote at the TV when Bradshaw said Louisville didn't belong in the championship game even if we were undefeated last year just because of who we were. Or weren't, I guess is the best way to say it.

by CardsFan922 on Oct 12, 2007 3:16 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

i might be missing the sacrasm...
but do you really want teams like kansas and missouri and cincinnati and south florida to lose? that is the best part of college football, and i might be in the minority on this, but i would rather watch the stanford-usc ending compared to the florida-usc ending.

upsets are what make college sports tick, specifically college football, and right after that is underdog stories. sure, once espn does a billion fluff pieces on "how magical south florida is" and how they are a "cinderella" it will lose some of its luster, but it is still a 11 year old program in the top 5.

much better than seeing a traditional power like ohio state in the top 5 IMO, parity is the king of sports.

by rockchalk on Oct 12, 2007 7:16 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

sorry.
i do know some people who arent a big fan, so i was just making sure...

by rockchalk on Oct 12, 2007 10:41 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

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