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Around SBN: Which Players Will Join The 3,000-Hit Club?

DO NOT BE ALARMED BY MICHAEL CRABTREE


Unsustainable...in every way...
- - -
There is zero chance he will actually do it. But, for the record, if redshirt freshman Michael Crabtree contines his statistical pace through Texas Tech’s first six games over its last six games, this will be the line for his first season:
Catches Yards Yds./Catch TD
140 2,148 15.3 34

Just to drive home the complete absurdity of the thought, that production would have to come in tandem with the continued success of teammate Danny Amendola, whose pace over the first half of the season would leave him somewhere in the following neighborhood if duplicated:

Catches Yards Yds./Catch TD
108 1,370 12.7 8

And, since I know you’re wondering, assuming he finishes every game, Graham Harrell’s final production would look like this:

Att. Comp. Comp. % Yds. Yds./Att. TD:INT
620 456 73.5 5452 8.8 56:6

The point here is that, in life, there are boundaries. There are societal boundaries, which, thouhg staunchly and sometimes violently defended, ultimately are fluid, and then physical boundaries, which are fixed no matter the will or firepower. The Red Raiders have strained the latter in large part by facing the following defenses:

Ntl. Rank - TxTech First Six Oppnts.
Pass Eff. D Sacks
SMU 95 55
UTEP 88 118
Rice 117 72
Okla. State 94 96
N'wstrn. State 90 (I-AA) 113 (I-AA)
Iowa State 103 55

There is, of course, a chiken-egg component here: in every case above, one-sixth of the data came against Texas Tech. Yet certainly the Raiders don’t stand a chance of reproducing against the meat of the Big 12 schedule what they amassed against three secondaries from the bottom half of the C-USA West, one from the Championship Subdivision, another that allowed 388 yards passing in a loss to Troy and, most recently, a defense that found itself on the wrong of scores against Northern Illinois, Kent State and Toledo. Just to be sure:

Ntl. Rank - TT Last Six Oppnts.
Pass Eff. D Sacks
Texas A&M 69 105
Missouri 49 46
Colorado 33 62
Baylor 70 51
Texas 42 34
Oklahoma 57 6

Okay? It’s just not going to happen. Because it can’t. Michael Crabtree is not a god. He’s a redshirt freshman who dropped the game-winning touchdown on fourth down at Oklahoma State (in front of Mike Gundy, who did not laugh, because he is a man who has children. Because he is 40). Even if Crabtree caught 14 for 237 and three touchdowns right before that. Don’t fall for it. This has to end.

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Michael Crabtree
cares not for your "evidence" or "stats". It is going to happen, SMQ, and you're going to learn to love it.  Had he played four full quarters in all the games thus far, his numbers would be even sicker.

He hasn't yet had his 4 or 5 touchdown game, which is due. You need to learn to love the Crab.

by Red Blooded @ Sunday Morning Quarterback on Oct 10, 2007 4:24 PM EDT reply actions  

Michael Crabtree
If I'm not mistaken, TTU has actually toned down the passing in some early blowout losses, even running the ball upwards of (gasp) 30 times once, so it stands to reason when they're in actual competitive games they may pass even more (see Harrell's comical 67 attempts vs Oklahoma St in a 49-45 game)...

Either way, I'm all for rooting for Michael Crabtree and his silly numbers...I'm tired of seeing people like Matt Ryan on Heisman watch lists everywhere...I mean, Matt Ryan? Really? 37th in the nation in passing with UMass, Army and BG already on the schedule? Are things this bad?

by Pants McPants on Oct 10, 2007 4:38 PM EDT reply actions  

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