What's Wrong With: The Big East or The BCS Abhors a Vacuum
As the season hits its stretch run, SMQ cynically, foolishly commits to quick, dirty and only marginally relevant looks over the next few days at what's primarily ailing each of the six major conferences at the moment. He is not, however, a problem-solver, so solutions other than 'play better football' - or, if he wants to get really in-depth, 'recruit better players in order to play better football' - are optional.
Having seen the league's underdog heroes fight for respect and battle with much on the line before, SMQ is not among the chorus deeming tonight's Rutgers-Louisville tilt the second most important game in Big East history. Though he agrees last week's UL game with West Virginia was probably the first.
The difference: West Virginia beat Georgia, man, the SEC, and did it in very explosive, non-underdog-like fashion, defense be damned, to finish in the top five of every Official Poll at the end of last year. So the Mountaineers were at least somewhat legit; Louisville almost won at Miami a couple years ago, then wiped the field with the 'Canes in September during Football Nirvana, and since nobody else had challenged the Cards, presumably, they were legit, too.
And so two undefeated, high-scoring, highly-regarded teams show up, run roughshod over one another, one wins by double digits, and...well, nothing much changes. Too many fumbles. Not enough defense. And what did you expect? It's just the Big East.
Tonight's game, by contrast, is far less important, because Rutgers has not beaten a ranked opponent and has no one's respect; Louisville cannot win big here, regardless the score, and neither can the Knights, if the standard is the establishment of mythical championship credentials. But the Cardinals can lose big, and not just with an actual loss. As articulated by an anonymous commenter earlier in the week:
Louisville wins a close, low-scoring affair? Just shows their offense wasn't that good after all. Couldn't score against Rutgers!
Louisville wins a close, high-scoring affair? Again, no defense. Couldn't stop Rutgers!
Louisville blows them out? Who cares? It was Rutgers!
(Of course if Rutgers wins, it's because Louisville was never any good.)
Mike Freeman is not necessarily representative of the perception of the relevant national punditry as a whole, or necessarily even coherent, but it is beyond a good assumption that his, um, arguments do more or less represent a certain, stodgier segment of it: the absence of Miami and Virginia Tech, the two respectable stalwarts that virtually alone made the league worthy for a decade and a half, the plundering of smaller step-child schools with little to no tradition, and the brief, off-kilter, de facto ascension of Pittsburgh in the interim, has left the perception of the Big East above all as a stepchild league, a glorified Conference USA.
There are a few ways to dissect this. Taken independently, the Big East's collective members this season are winners: Cincinnati is one win away from becoming the league's sixth bowl-eligible team (out of eight teams, that's 75 percent, higher than any other conference), and its collective record outside of the conference (32-8, which includes no unbeaten teams) is second only to the SEC, which, at 35-6 against teams not in the SEC, is the only other conference with no teams under .500 outside the league.
Or, it can be pointed out Big East teams collectively have played five games against currently ranked opponents (West Virginia against Maryland, Cincinnati against Ohio State and Virginia Tech, Connecticut against Wake Forest and Syracuse against Wake Forest), and lost all but one by a healthy margin. Not that those are exactly exemplary matchups for the conference.
So, therefore, the trouble with the Big East: we still ultimately don't know much of anything about this league in terms of its viability as a BCS stalwart worthy of consistent respect and competitive enough to produce a legitimate mythical champion.If you want to argue the league is tough and legit, the win-loss evidence, the numbers, are there. If you want to degrade it as unworthy, the schedules are there. Who's got the jump here?
On that note, back to tonight's game: not important in the large scheme, because no reasonably probable outcomes will convert individual preconceived notions. Because of their schedules to date, Rutgers and Louisville are operating in a virtual vacuum, the same one that led such a skeptical buzz surrounding the Cardinals after last week. Louisville wins big, what is the context? Nobody's sure how good Rutgers really is. Rutgers manages an upset, what is the context? The Knights move up, sure, but were we really sure Louisville was all that great? We were not.
SMQ thinks, deep down, most people watching tonight are most confident of the assumption that Rutgers has not really changed, not really overcome the inept nature that defines its hollow core, and will assess Louisville's performance accordingly. If Rutgers wins, or loses very competitively, it's more widely considered an indictment of Louisville, not an affirmation of the Knights. SMQ does not feel that way about this game, but all we really, really know for sure is that Rutgers has been a very bad team for a very long time, and perceptions do not change that quickly.

Well, no, Mike, not exactly, unless you're trying to say "We're No. 11!"
Superficial Quick Fix: The general worth of the league to voters and recruits depends almost entirely on Louisville winning the mythical championship. For all the reasons above, Rutgers has zero opportunity to ride a late season wave, no matter how large, so far. The computers and enough voters seem to be willing to give the Cardinals their shot if UL takes care of its business over the last month. Once there, a close game can do a little to raise expectations, in the same fashion as West Virginia's win last January over a Georgia team with two losses already, but more enduring equality comes only with a championship win against an undefeated Ohio State or Michigan raised over a month and a half off to supernatural juggernaut status.
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Big East bits
One issue, that, as far as I know, has not been discussed by anyone--is the Big East this season any worse than the Big East when Miami was winning it during the 1990's, and considered a dominant national power for doing so? Admittedly, they were also playing FSU every year, but their conference slate was incredibly easy.
It's tough to measure, but consider the following:
At the top tier, Miami/VT then is comparable to UofL/WVU now. Rutgers/Pitt/USF this season is roughly comparable to Syracuse/BC/WVU then. The big difference, of course, is at the bottom; Rutgers and Temple were absolute jokes, among the worst teams in the nation every season, and certainly the worst teams from any BCS conference--but what most people forget is how bad Pitt was as well.
Between 1992 and 2005, Pitt went 32-37 in non-conference games, a winning % of .464--the only BCS teams that had a worse record during that time were Duke (.400) and Temple (.250)--even Rutgers was better. Against BCS teams, Pitt was an amazingly bad 8-26 (.235).
There's little doubt that UConn, Cincy, and Syracuse now are much, much better than Temple, Rutgers, and Pitt back then.
I've long wondered why no one pointed out that playing in the weak ACC and Big East gave the conference winners--usually Miami and FSU, although VT benefitted in 1999--a massive advantage in terms of getting to the BCS title game.
In any event, if no one had a problem sticking Miami and VT in the title game when they were in the Big East, it's foolish for them to take issue with Louisville making it now--because the conference is much better now than it was then.
by Solon on Nov 9, 2006 9:25 PM EST 0 recs
Excellent points all around
I think the real perception problem is the hangover from 2005, when the Big East teams collectively played as weak a schedule as this year, but lost a lot more games against it.
Last year the Big East was down and not just because it had lost its head(s).
But this year's Louisville is indeed probably as good as the old Miami or Virginia Tech teams, and this year's Big East probably is as good or better than the 1990s model.
by JPK on
Nov 9, 2006 9:44 PM EST
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2nd week in a row
The games are entertaining as hell though. I'm still not sure how talented the Big East teams are on defense, but I do think all 3 teams at the top are well coached and have some offensive studs.
by Raymond on Nov 9, 2006 11:53 PM EST 0 recs
RE: Big East Defenders
West Va had beaten ECU and Md outside the conference, handily. At this point, it looks as though Md will be in the ACC championship game, and it looks as though ECU will be in the ConfUSA championship game (sorry, SMQ).
Louisville had beaten Miami, K State, and Kentucky--not exactly the strongest schedule, but these three teams will likely all be bowl teams, and all are from BCS conferences.
Outside of conference, Rutgers played the following BCS teams: UNC and Illinois--these teams have 1 1-A win between them--and Rutgers just barely beat UNC. They also played Ohio and Navy--good teams, relatively speaking, but on a different level than the ones beaten by WVU and UofL (one could argue that Navy is as good as ECU, but given that Navy played 3Q without their starting QB it was not an overly impressive win for Rutgers). They also played Howard, who, while they may be having a fine season (I don't follow 1-AA too closely), is surely worse than any of the opponents played by WVU or Louisville.
Assuming Rutgers goes undefeated, I think it's reasonable to argue that their resume on the whole doesn't match up with the other contenders, even those with a loss.
For example, if USC runs the table (lots of suppositions here), they will have played 12 1-A opponents, and it's entirely possible they'll have beaten the Big 12 Champ, the SEC Champ, and a 10-2 ND team, along with winning the Pac 10 and only being a 2-pt conversion away from being undefeated. Given Rutgers' OOC schedule, I think you could make a compelling argument against Rutgers being left out in favor of USC.
I have not thought about it too much--still processing Louisville's loss--but I think you'd be hard pressed to make the argument for any other one-loss team over an undefeated Rutgers. Maybe Florida, but keep in mind that they are about to play Western Carolina, and their OOC schedule does not look especially impressive given how poor FSU is.
The worst thing about the entire situation to me, is that, for example, if FSU had exactly the same results as Rutgers, no one would be questioning their right to play for the title, because their brand is strong, even now.
by Solon on Nov 10, 2006 2:01 AM EST 0 recs






