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SEC Exposed

Even after a weekend of poor performances: Florida's blah-fest at Vandy, Georgia (supposedly on the fringes of respectability and a "quality win") falling to Kentucky, and Alabama losing to Miss State, America woke up again to another SEC love-fest.

SMQ, this is a looming topic that only you can handle: irrational love for the SEC is ruining college football.

This week Jason Whitlock told the AP that


"After watching the West Virginia-Louisville game Thursday night I was shocked at how poorly the defenses played," Whitlock said in an e-mail to the AP on Sunday. "I don't think either one of those teams would survive against the best teams in the SEC. So there are four SEC teams that I think are better than Louisville. I also think Ohio State, Texas, USC and Michigan are better than Louisville."

Four?

Really?

Every week, Florida/Auburn/UT/Ark/LSU will just barely get by against one of the mediocre SEC teams, but somehow the eternal toughness of the league is cited.

Alabama is not a good football team.

Georgia is not a good football team.

South Carolina is not a good football team.

Vanderbilt is not a good football team.

I haven't even mentioned the state of Mississippi yet.

Every year the naked emperors of the South play a weak non-conference schedule (see Georgia, Alabama) benefit from a general belief that Southern football is King and everyone has a nice home upset and its declared the toughest g-- d---ed conference of all time. As such, Tennessee's 3 point victory over Alabama is somehow a positive, while Notre Dame's 3 point victory over UCLA is something that isn't dinner table appropriate.

Is the SEC really that different from the Big Ten or Pac-10? A medicore tier, an elite crust and some dogs?

To be fair, I think Auburn and Florida belong somewhere solidly in the top 10. LSU, Arkansas and Tennessee are dangerous teams that you don't want to catch on the wrong day, and, if they get a flukey TD catch (ark, last night) or about 3 flukey interceptions from tipped balls (tennessee) they'll beat you. Just like about 25 other teams in America.

All comments on 'Sunday Morning Quarterback' are the views of the individual commenter and do not necessarily reflect the genius of SMQ, Sports Blog Nation, etc.

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Take the statement at face
Whilock's got five teams that one could reasonably believe to be better than Louisville: Tennessee, Florida, Auburn, LSU, and Arkansas. It's not unreasonable for him to believe that Ohio State, Michigan, Texas and USC could beat Louisville. So, is that such a stretch of a statement? I don't know that it would be reasonable to rank the Cardinals 10th, but it's also not that egregious a statement.

Re: your larger point, I think there's some truth to that. The SEC is probably getting more credit than it deserves because the middle tier isn't much to brag about this year. Bama, SC, Georgia aren't very good this year. At all.

And I think it might be reasonable to say that - top to bottom - the Pac 10 is better this season.

I'd hesitate before lumping the Big 10 in this conversation, though. They've got tOSU, Michigan, a solid Wisconsin, and then total garbage.

by Peter Bean on Nov 6, 2006 10:17 AM EST reply actions  

Total Garbage???
I'd hesitate before lumping the Big 10 in this conversation, though. They've got tOSU, Michigan, a solid Wisconsin, and then total garbage.

Total garbage? Hey! Well, maybe you have a point.

by Mike @ Sunday Morning Quarterback on Nov 6, 2006 1:33 PM EST up reply actions  

You're not alone
The Big 12 blows sack, too. It's Texas, then kinda OU, then garbage.

Everyone's top heavy this year.

by Peter Bean on Nov 6, 2006 1:57 PM EST up reply actions  

The data and intangibles
It is an interesting question, however I think the SEC is the best conference for the often overlooked intangibles. While it is accurate to point out most big conferences are top heavy, that measurement only addresses wins and losses. Other measurements are required in college football, otherwise we have to accept what the computers say as gospel.

Assuming we ignore the statistical data, which I'll admit can be deceiving in the middle of any season due to who has played who and what games remain on a schedule, and assuming we ignore historical statistical data over 5 year trends which also puts the SEC near the top in most offensive and defensive categories, there are other intangibles that can be measured.

Players and Coaches are usually the first place fans look at when comparing teams, whose players are better and which coaches have had success over a period of time. This is useful before the season, but as individual football team seasons develop I think these questions are better asked after the games are played, but before the bowls, otherwise you can get caught up in the trap that a single group of players or single coach makes a team. See Miami or Florida State for respective examples of how teams can be more hype than substance if players and coaches were the only criteria.

I think conferences can  also be measured by intangibles though. There is a big difference between playing at Tennessee and Boise St. despite Bronco stadiums legendary status as the Blue Turf field. Both are great stadiums, both house good football teams, but in the end Bronco stadium has a capacity of only 30,000 fans. Compare that to the 106,000+ fans in Rocky Top, and you can see where one might consider playing at Tennessee a major advantage.

Carry that to the next logical step, consider a football team that can walk in and beat Tennessee, in Tennessee...

In my opinion, that is one example of an intangible that props up the SEC, legitimately. A road game in the SEC is always fighting a 12th man intangible that simply isn't imitated very well in other conferences. The stadiums are bigger, the seats sell even when the teams aren't very good, and the fans make it more difficult on opponents. Whether it is cowbells that are supposedly outlawed by the NCAA in Starkville, a Marti Gras style 12+ hour tailgate in Baton Rogue, or an all day Party in the Swamp road teams in the SEC are facing very large, loud home teams that add to momentum and can disrupt an unprepared opponent.

It isn't `only' the size and speed of the players, the reputations of the coaches, or the depth and quality of the quality teams that makes the SEC the best conference, it is also the difficulty of winning road games, usually including more than one high quality opponent road game in a SEC conference season, that makes the SEC so good. Remember, 5 of the top 10 and 8 of the top 20 D-1 NCAA team's total attendance so far this season are SEC teams, and the 8th team in that list for total attendance so far this season, Arkansas, is averaging over 73,000 fans per home game.

Check it yourself.
http://web1.ncaa.org/d1mfb/2006/Internet/attendance/IA_AVGATTENDANCE.pdf

The SEC has the best home field advantage of any conference, so a road SEC game is never easy. Even Vanderbilt, seen as the cupcake of the SEC and last in attendance in the SEC, averages over 85% stadium capacity for home games, nearly 34,000 fans, and the road team never gets more than around 4,000 tickets even in Vandy. 34,000 is 7,000 fewer fans than number #11 in attendance Mississippi St, but 39,000 few fans than #8 Arkansas.  

No other conference in college football even comes close.

Using the above as a guide, and factoring in the statistics, we can accurately measure college football. It turns out, Ohio St is a really good team, they beat Texas, in Texas. Michigan beat Notre Dame, in Notre Dame. Texas has 2 big road wins, at Nebraska and at Oklahoma. In fact, of the top 10 teams in the country, only 3 do not have a big road win; Auburn, Louisville, and West Virgina.

Auburn has 2 big home wins though (although 1 big home loss), so we know they are a pretty good team. Louisville also has 2 big home wins, with no such home loss. West Virginia, well, maybe that is why they can't get any respect... they still need to earn it.

"Never argue with an idiot; they'll drag you down to their level and beat you with experience." - #14 Dilbert's 35 Rules Of Order

by Raymond on Nov 6, 2006 3:17 PM EST reply actions  

Part Duex
"Every year the naked emperors of the South play a weak non-conference schedule (see Georgia, Alabama) benefit from a general belief that Southern football is King and everyone has a nice home upset and its declared the toughest g-- d---ed conference of all time. As such, Tennessee's 3 point victory over Alabama is somehow a positive, while Notre Dame's 3 point victory over UCLA is something that isn't dinner table appropriate."

I don't think the facts support your argument.

Taking a quick look, it appears the SEC does a good job scheduling non conference games, better than many conferences top to bottom.

Examples:

Alabama is not a good football team, yet beat Hawaii, whose only other loss is to Boise St.
Georgia still has to play Georgia Tech
South Carolina still has to play Clemson.
Vanderbilt lost to Michigan.
Kentucky lost to Louisville
Arkansas lost to USC
Tennessee beat California
Florida still has to play Florida St., historically a big game
Auburn beat Washington St.
Miss St. lost to West Virginia
Ole Miss lost to Wake Forest, without that win, nobody would talk about Wake Forest the same
LSU beat Arizona

That is a weak non-conference schedule? The list above includes 10 of top 15 teams in today's top 25 poll, and notables like Florida St, Alabama, Georgia, and Clemson are not apart of that 10, although traditionally could be. The top 10 of 15 list also doesn't include Wake Forest who is 8-1, or Georgia Tech which is 7-2 and in the top 25.

If the SEC is scheduling cupcakes, try that exercise with other conferences. The PAC-10 is the only other conference that can make a list worthy of note, thanks in no small part to the 4 contributions from the SEC also listed above.

"Never argue with an idiot; they'll drag you down to their level and beat you with experience." - #14 Dilbert's 35 Rules Of Order

by Raymond on Nov 6, 2006 4:27 PM EST reply actions  

I disagree.. sortof
I agree Washington St isn't eyepopping, but they are a bowl eligible team, and they did beat a good Oregon team, and were ranked in the top 25 until losing to a not so good Arizona team, who btw, lost to LSU...

Another point on how to measure big conferences is how many teams win the games they are supposed to. Auburn should beat Washington St at home. Washington St. should of beaten Arizona at home, but because they didn't, thus they aren't considered a very good team. Had they beaten Arizona they would be 7-3, with losses to USC, Cal., and at Auburn. That would be more respectible, wouldn't you agree?

What then do we make of Oregon State, the 3rd best team in the PAC-10, who lost to Washington St. at home? What do we make of Boise St, who blew out Oregon State in Bronco Staduim?

What about Texas A&M, the third best team in the Big 12, who lost to Texas Tech at home? Is Texas Tech underrated, and if so how can we ignore the blow out loss Texas Tech had at Colorado?

The reality is, Arkansas, Auburn, LSU, Florida, and Tennessee have beat the teams they are supposed to, and with the exception of USC over an Arkansas team that was banged up (started 3rd string QB and Second string RB if you recall), those 5 teams have collectively beaten all other contenders.

Like the SEC, the ACC also has 5 teams ranked in the top 25. Of the 5, only Boston College has a really bad loss to a non respectable team, specifically at NC State. The rest of the teams have tough conference losses or losses to top 15 teams, and by tough conference losses I mean that Boston College, Maryland, Clemson, Wake Forest, Virginia Tech, and Georgia Tech are 6 good teams currently claiming 5 top 25 spots, and they are beating each other up. I haven't even mentioned Miami, which could run the table beating two teams mentioned above and go 8-4, realistically. Is the ACC a top conference? Depends, they don't have a single top 15 teams in the country, but they might legitimately have as many as seven teams that could rank 16-30 in the country.

The Big East and Big 10 are the only conferences with 3 teams that have won the games they are supposed to win. Rutgars, West Virginia, and Louisville have won the games they are supposed to win, and that alone is the best claim the Big East has for being a good conference. Wisconson rounds out the Big Ten's Michigan and Ohio State for teams that conference has without bad losses, unless we count Penn State as a Big Ten 4th team, although Penn State has 0 quality wins.

The thing about the Big East though, which is why I don't understand how people are so worked up, is thanks to a scheduling quark, last Thursday night was only the second big game for the conference as a whole. The first big conference game was Rutgers vs South Florida back in September, and nobody even knew it. South Florida, Pitt, West Virginia, Rutgers, and Louisville all still have 2 or 3 big games against each other.

I know, South Florida sounds stupid, but in the Big East they are the 4th best team. The 4th best team in the other BCS conferences is Boston College, Nebraska, Oregon State, Penn State, and LSU.

What about the 5th best team in the Big East Pittsburg. Where would they stack up against Missouri, Purdue, Maryland, Washington State, or Tennessee?

But in conferences, we can't just measure the top and the middle, we need to measure the bottom as well. The 9th best team in the SEC is Alabama. The 9th best team in the other BCS conferences is Baylor, Washington, Miami, Michigan St., and if the Big East had 9 teams, any team worse than Syracuse (ouch).

Michigan State, a 4 win team does have a good road win, at 5th place Big East team Pitt. 9th place in the ACC Miami is #3 Louisville's best non conference win, and Louisville was at home. Washington's best win of the season was San Jose State, the 3rd best WAC team (which doesn't help Boise States case any). Alabama is supposed to suck, but they beat Hawaii, the second best WAC team (again hurting Boise State). Baylor is a bad football team, but they beat Kansas, and Kansas beat the 4th best Big East team.

Think about it. If the SEC is overrated, who then is underrated? The ACC has 5 teams in the top 25. The Big 10, PAC-10, and Big 12 are really good at the top, but the dropoff in those conferences is big unless we are ready to say South Florida and Pittsburg are high quality teams.

Can someone present a factual argument the SEC is overrated? THe evidence would be compelling, if it exists...

"Never argue with an idiot; they'll drag you down to their level and beat you with experience." - #14 Dilbert's 35 Rules Of Order

by Raymond on Nov 6, 2006 10:25 PM EST up reply actions  

UGA
This is admittedly a small nit to pick, but it's a bit unfair to hate on UGA's OOC scheduling this year.  When the Georgia/Colorado series was scheduled, no one could have known that CU would be in a down year... or that Georgia would suck, too.

by RacketMan on Nov 7, 2006 2:12 PM EST reply actions  

Agree and disagree
First off, I agree that the talking heads are mouthing bromides, not actually thinking. Comparing conferences is kind of pointless, unless (and this is important) you're using conference records for something important (this matters more in hoops than football).

Conferences don't play games, so any analysis has to be at the team level. It doesn't matter as much that the SEC is 3-1 vs the Pac 10 as it does that it was Arizona @ LSU, Washington State @ Auburn, Cal @ Tennessee, and USC @ Arkansas. (And no, I'm not saying game location made a differnce in any of those, 3-45, 14-40, 18-35, and 50-14 weren't within a hypothetical HFA).

My point is, those specific teams were better (or not, in Arkansas' case) than the other specific teams. I have a summary report that takes into account the relative team strengths - the Big 10 might be "better" than the SEC this year, but tied-for-1st-in-the-B10 Michigan's win over last-in-the-SEC-East-Vanderbilt isn't exactly evidence of that.

What is really funny to me is the perspective of "insiders" down here in SEC country. The general perception amongst the talk radio hosts and newspaper columnists is that "the SEC is down this year compared to last year", mostly because the middle teams aren't doing well in conference. What makes that funny is that by my objective report the SEC was at best the 5th-best in interconference play last year, with the 10th-toughest interconference schedule, and has been 1st or close to it this year, also with the 10th-toughest IC schedule.

For reference, last year the Big East was 6th with a slightly tougher SOS than the SEC, this year also 1st or 2nd with a slightly tougher SOS. Interconference-wise, the Big East actually is better so far this year.

It's close enough that the SEC can pass the Big East in the last week of the season, though, if they win enough of the rivalry games with ACC teams, since the Big East is done with interconference play.

by JPK on Nov 7, 2006 10:03 PM EST reply actions  

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