A week-long look at SMQ’s preseason ballot.
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10. Wisconsin
There has to be a second banana in the Big Ten, and with Michigan presumably on a temporary hiatus from Rose Bowl ambitions, I don’t see a better candidate than the Badgers. No other Big Ten team behind Ohio State has been as consistent as Wisconsin the last four years, including the Wolverines, and the personnel on offense is ideal for UW’s prefered style of grinding defenses to dust: the backfield is deep, led by big, two-time 1,000-yard thumper P.J. Hill, behind a huge, experienced, deep offensive line with 104 career starts among the five likely starters, and Travis Beckum and likely up-and-coming Kyle Jefferson to keep defenses loose. The running game should be formidable enough to keep new, iffy quarterback Allan Evridge in his comfort zone, just as it did for similarly underwhelming athletes Tyler Donovan and Jon Stocco before him. Without impressing anyone very much, Donovan and Stocco were 47-17 as starters and led units that averaged 29 points or more the last three years, a testament to the offense’s ability to succeed consistently as a power running attack without a great quarterback, as long he makes defenses pay occasionally.

The difference in a run at the BCS (very likely the Rose Bowl, if Ohio State takes care of its business) and another New Year’s morning tilt in Florida (currently at four in a row) is whether the defense veers more towards last year’s mediocrity -- which allowed 241 yards rushing to Michigan State, 289 to Illinois, 221 to Penn State, 145 to Indiana and 211 to Ohio State (most after taking a brief lead in the second half) in one dismal midseason stretch -- or the killer 2006 unit, which finished in the top five nationally in scoring, total, and pass efficiency defense. Given Bret Bielema’s track record as a defensive guru at Kansas State, and the nine starters back on this defense, the better bet is probably on the 2006 version, or something closer to it. If they can get out of the midseason gauntlet of Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State, Iowa, Illinois, and Michigan State -- with the toughest games, against the Buckeyes, Lions, and Illini, all in Madison -- at 4-2 and avoid a stumble against, say Fresno State, I’d chalk up the Badgers as favorites for one of the big money affairs.

9. LSU
Ostensibly, the Tigers’ only question mark post-Perrilloux is quarterback, because there are no questions about their unfair talent and depth at running back, receiver, offensive line, safety, and especially defensive line, stocked with cadres of enough excessive blue chip firepower to blow up opposing quarterbacks a thousand times over.

But no matter how punishing any particular combination of the front four is on defense, the looming tribulation under center is hardly academic. Remember how many extremely close calls the Tigers had, not even including the pair of overtime games it lost: four points over Florida, six points over Auburn, seven points over Alabama, all fourth quarter LSU comebacks that were in doubt in the final minute -- in the case of Auburn, down the final harrowing second. Matt Flynn was probably an underrated leader last year, and essential in those games -- he led the winning drive against Florida, threw the winning touchdowns over Auburn (where he had a sky-high 166.8 efficiency rating) and Alabama and was nearly flawless in the mythical championship win over Ohio State (166 rating, four touchdowns, five of six passing on third down). Without him, the offense was held to a season-low 14 points in the SEC Championship and had to rely on the defense to provide the winning margin.

Last year’s edition would not have played for a shot at No. 1 with two losses in any other season in the history of such a designation -- in fact, no SEC West champion since 2003 had won the division with more than one conference loss, including LSU in ‘03 and ‘05 -- and it survived a trio of extremely close, back-and-forth games to survive long enough to back into that opportunity. With trips to Auburn and Florida and Georgia coming into Baton Rouge, it’s hard to see the Tigers walking the same tightrope again with any regression at quarterback (not to mention the graduation of two senior corners on defense), which seems inevitable. Even if they survive at Auburn and into the conference title game for a rematch with UF/UGA, the best bet is the Cotton, Outback or Bowl Formerly Known as the Citrus on Jan. 1.

8. Clemson
The more I think about the Tigers, the less I consider them as merely a default pick to win the ACC -- though some people aren’t even extending that consideration -- and the more I think of them as a team on the verge of legitimate breakthrough. Part of that does come from the schedule, which has the interesting neutral site game with Alabama to open but not much else that falls outside of "Taking Care of Business," depending on your opinion of the dangers inherent in a Thursday night trip to Wake Forest and back-to-back visits to Boston College and Florida State to open November. Contrary to popular myth, Clemson does not always fold at the end of the season (as often under Tommy Bowden, they’ve done the exact opposite), and it’s significant that it probably enters every game on the schedule, with the possible exception of Alabama, as at least a touchdown favorite, and is favored to win the ACC for the first time since Florida State joined the conference -- it only took four wins over Papa Bowden in five years for the prognostoscenti to give Tommy the benefit of the doubt.

Disregarding the schedule, though, there’s no denying Clemson has moved into position to finally conquer the ACC in the last four years: the Tigers’ recruiting classes have dramatically improved, from consistent finishes in the 50s and 60s in Rivals’ rankings -- behind the likes of Maryland, NC State, Virginia, and North Carolina, among others -- to four straight top 20 classes that have produced better records on the field (three straight eight-win seasons for the first time since 1989-91, again, just before FSU entered the conference) and NFL-bound talent like Cullen Harper, James Davis, C.J. Spiller, Michael Hamlin, Ricky Sapp, Thomas Austin, Chris Clemons, Jacoby Ford, and Dorell Scott, for starters.

Now boys, it’s time to fly.
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It is true that the Tigers have consistently lost games they shouldn’t lose (to Wake Forest, Maryland, Kentucky, and Georgia Tech since 2005, for example), and that precedent is probably keeping them on the fringe of the top ten and out of the mythical championship discussion. But there’s a strong argument, which probably couldn’t be made before, that Clemson is the most talented team in the conference, and it’s been building toward this season with incrementally greater expectations and results the last years; we’ve been waiting for a program to really take hold of this conference since it became obvious FSU and Miami weren’t up to it, and every possible factor points to Clemson taking that step this fall. If not now, then the doubts are really justified.

7. Missouri
If you think margins matter, Missouri is your team: the Tigers (this stretch of the countdown does love its Tigers, no?) outscored opponents last year by 17 points per game and only took two of their dozen wins by single digits, over Rose Bowl-bound Illinois in the opener and Orange Bowl-bound Kansas in the finale -- and both the Illini and Jayhawks had to stage late rallies to get the final score within a touchdown. They were felled by the pair of losses to Oklahoma, and basically dominated everyone else, including Nebraska (+35) and bowl teams Texas Tech (+31), Colorado (+45), Texas A&M (+14), and, maybe most memorably, Arkansas (+31) in a Cotton Bowl rout that wasn’t nearly that close. On a week-to-week basis, this may have been the best team in the country.

It seems part of that magic is bound to wear off, since Chase Daniel and the nearly point-a-minute offense can hardly be expected to be better than they were, and there’s only one way to go, etc. But Daniel didn’t come from nowhere: he was excellent as a sophomore, when he completed 63 percent of his passes for 3,500-plus yards and 28 touchdowns, and no one who watched him carve up Illinois, Kansas, and Arkansas on national TV (these are the games I watched personally, in addition to the much less impressive championship loss to Oklahoma) can possibly write him off as a fluke as long as he has a target of the caliber of Jeremy Maclin. It will be a disappointment if they don’t crack at least 35 points per game again, and it’s perfectly reasonable to expect 40. Daniel is all he’s cracked up to be.

The caveat is not so much the potential drop-off in the running game with the departure of Tony Temple, or the limitations of the good-not-great defense; it’s more that it seems impossible for Mizzou, a team that hasn’t won a conference championship in many of its players’ parents’ lifetimes and hasn’t made any remarkable inroads in recruiting, can threaten to go undefeated two years in a row. Like Clemson, it’s a presumptive favorite throughout the regular season, in specific games, but Illinois in St. Louis, at Nebraska (Mizzou is 0-15 in Lincoln since 1978), at Texas, and Kansas in Kansas City are serious tests, to say nothing of home games against potentially feisty Oklahoma State and Colorado. And if the Tigers do manage to achieve 12-0, there’s Oklahoma again -- or, just as daunting, some team that managed to beat OU for the South title -- waiting in the Big 12 Championship. In the context of the last four decades of this program, in a year with so many elite contenders, I guess it takes an encore before it deserves the benefit of the doubt.

6. West Virginia
I’ve focused consistently this offseason on the theme of the Mountaineers’ season, which as I see it is something along the lines of "Last, Best Chance" with Pat White and the unprecedented momentum of the RichRod era before falling from the national spotlight, content to compete within the Big East and make the odd run into the polls, as they did under Don Nehlen. That may be dramatic, but expecting WVU to field another combination on the order of White-Slaton or, presumably, White-Devine seems like a sucker’s bet to me. This year figures to be the Mountaineers’ fourth straight top ten finish, which is completely unprecedented (they’d never had two in a row prior to White/Slaton) and probably specific to this particular era.

Despite the overwhelming favor of the preseason polls, WVU has managed to lose two Big East games each of the last two years and must solve South Florida’s defense -- a season-low 19 points vs. USF in 2006, and just 13 in Tampa last year -- before it can take another conference championship for granted. By the time the Bulls roll into freezing Morgantown on Dec. 6, though, at least the stakes will be clear, and the Big East should be up for grabs, if not already sewn up; the Mountaineers’ national ambitions will be defined by two extremely interesting Thursday night games, at Colorado in September and at home against Auburn on Oct. 23, national showcases that could vault WVU onto the mythical championship short list if White remains healthy behind a fully intact, potentially dominant line and the spread ‘n shred remains sharp. Clearly, based on big bowl wins over heavily favored Georgia and Oklahoma since 2005, this team doesn’t mind the bright lights, or the baddest competition. As much as matching up athletically in the big games, it will be finding the consistency and versatility when things get tough against the Rutgers and Cincinnatis that will make the difference between another very good year and an all-time great one.

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Nos. 15-11: The Dreamers
Nos. 20-16: The Also-Rans
Nos. 21-25: The Wildcards

This time the last two last years, in two very different preseason poll environments (2006 was a mashup of unworthy-looking, poor man’s contenders; 2007 was all USC, all the time), I’ve assessed the rogue mythical championship insurgents over roughly the last dozen years, teams that finished at or near the top of the year-end polls despite scant preseason recognition, with the question:

What traits are common to teams that class-hop the 10-15 spots that separate them from the championship pack at the start of the season?
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Both years, I found the precedent from past underdogs favored some combination of five steady criteria, from most relevant to least:

• Kick-ass Run Defense (less than 3 yards per carry)
• Steady Junior or Senior Quarterback (Although not necessarily game-tested)
• Relatively New Coach (aka "The Big Hire")
• Upward Trend (in connection w/ the new coach, a noticeable upturn in fortune over a 2-3 year period prior to the breakthrough season -- although not necessarily the immediately preceding year)
• Biggest Win(s) at Home

Though this criteria made me correctly high on Louisville in 2006 and on board with Boston College last year, neither really challenged for the mythical championship in the end, and I failed to predict the unsung teams that actually came the closest to pulling off the surprise run, Wisconsin in 2006 and Ohio State, Kansas, and Missouri last year. And, though the Badgers fit the above-listed formula pretty well, OSU, KU, and Mizzou shot it all to hell in various ways:

Preseason rank courtesy Stassen.com’s Preseason Consensus.
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To the old, tattered list of indicators, I added another -- possibly the toughest to predict -- based on the tendency of most of the teams on this list (10 out of 16) to make its run in connection with the leadership of a spanking new addition to the lineup. This is not necessarily a first-year freshman or JUCO transfer, but any player who had contributed essentially nothing to the team in prior seasons yet eventually emerged as a star, or at least an essential spark in his team’s surge -- that includes Travis Henry and Todd Reesing, sophomores who had barely played as freshmen (Henry had two carries for 4 yards in 1997, then fell just short of 1,000 yards in UT’s run-oriented offense after Jamal Lewis was injured in 1998; Reesing, after redshirting in 2005, threw 24 passes in late action in 2006, but began ‘07 as a backup and had shown nothing to indicate he would throw for 3,500 yards and 33 touchdowns), and Brad Banks, who’d played very sparingly as a first-year JUCO transfer in 2001 (68 passes) and was a virtual no-name before finishing second for the Trophy Which Must Not Be Named following Iowa’s near-dream season in ‘02.

As you can tell, indicators along these lines are much more like suggestions than mandates -- if you throw enough categories against the wall, every team is bound to hit one of them, but only Ohio State in 2002 and LSU in ‘03 qualified under every one of them. Many of these teams are also strong, run-first offenses with extremely efficient passing games (Michigan, Tennessee, Virginia Tech, Iowa, Ohio State, LSU, Auburn, West Virginia, Penn State, Wisconsin, Ohio State again), but that is a very loose disitnction and doesn’t describe the particular versions of Arizona State, Oregon State, Oklahoma, Kansas or Missouri in question; the nature of the venture means most of the teams in question will be coming off three, four or five-loss seasons -- they’d be ranked higher if the previous record had been better, and losing teams virtually never have the talent to make such a wholesale turnaround in one year -- but there are far too many three-to-five-loss teams in any given year to count that as an indicator of impending darkhorse-dom. So this year’s candidates are the ones that best fit the profile, because none of them are perfect fits:

I would give Alabama a strong endorsement under Saban 2.0 -- remember, ‘Bama is only a couple years removed from starting 9-0 with a senior quarterback under Mike Shula -- if it didn’t have two killer trips to Athens and Baton Rouge; even if the Tide manages to win one of those games, they’d still have to survive Auburn at home, and the six-game losing streak, etc., so even the prospects of a breakthrough don’t lend themselves to legitimate mythical championship consideration. The Tide are also a little off the mark against the run and are replacing most of the front seven, making the requisite push on defense unlikely.

The most consistent indicator of darkhorse teams over the last decade has been their impenetrable run defense (11 of 16 allowed less than three yards per carry, and only one, the fringe example of Wisconsin in 2006, allowed more than 3.6), and among this year’s candidates -- while I'm still not convinced it's actually a good team -- Wake Forest has the best chance of pushing its opponents’ numbers into that range. The Deacons have been better-than-solid against the run the last two years (3.2 per carry in ‘07, 3.1 in ‘06), which is part and parcel of playing in the all-around lo-fi ACC, and return five of their starting front seven, including fourth-year starter Matt Robinson and third-year starters Boo Robinson, Stanley Arnoux and Aaron Curry, who (along with cornerback Alphonso Smith) is getting a lot of attention from draftniks and all-ACC teams alike and could be the pace-setting defensive star of a temporary Wake ascendency. The Deacons have no apparent game-breakers in their incoming class -- and minus their two best big-play guys on offense and special teams, Kevin Marion and Kenneth Moore, probably need to find one, at least to serve as a threat in the return game and occasional offensive spark -- but they have an experienced quarterback, a potentially smothering defense with eight senior starters, a proven clutch kicker in close games and a favorable schedule that offers up only one game (against Clemson, in Winston-Salem) in which they’re obvious underdogs. For a senior-stocked team that built a lot of credibility last year by sustaining the potentially fluky '06 championship run, in a wide-open conference wherein the window of opportunity figures to begin closing soon, it’s now or never, and if any of this fall’s potential darkhorses screams "now," it’s probably Wake.

As always, let the buyer beware.

A week-long look at SMQ’s preseason ballot.
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15. Texas Tech
Well, they can throw -- have you heard? -- and with a lot of people paying fairly close attention for a change, I imagine a rapid ascent from the mid-to-low teens into the top ten with a high-flying, probably record-breaking 5-0 start against Eastern Washington, Nevada, SMU, UMass, and Kansas State, against which Graham Harrell and Michael Crabtree will accumulate a season’s worth of statistical feats in the span of about a month. With that padding, the season actually begins in October.

The Raiders have a very real opportunity to move into the mythical title consciousness with a sweep of Nebraska, Texas A&M, and Kansas over the next three weeks, leading into a wild, possibly dangerous environment in Lubbock if Texas comes in on Nov. 1 with Tech sitting at 8-0. Its like an old video game with progressively tougher and tougher levels, until you reach the big, bad boss in the end -- in this case, from mid-major pushovers in September to the conference middleweights in October, then on to well-heeled overlords in November, with heavily-favored Oklahoma playing the role of big boss in Norman, where none of Leach’s teams have come within two scores of the Sooners in four tries. The Big 12 Championship would be like some kind of giddy but challenging bonus level, like the "Star Path" in "Super Mario World," only there are no shortcuts to get there.

Personally, although I might not be exactly surprsied by an 8-0 start prior to the Texas game, I’m not willing to bet on it. There are many reasons to doubt the alleged defensive transplant, in the first place -- especially against the run, where the Raiders were routinely gashed even after Ruffin McNeil took over the D in late September -- and it’s a significant point that Tech has been a quantifiably different team on the road lately:

The record doesn’t even account for the weird games that reinforce the position one way or another: at home, the Raiders put up 70 twice in a three-week span as one-score home favorites over TCU and Nebraska in 2004, but later lost to Texas A&M on the road; they trounced the Aggies and beat Oklahoma in Lubbock in 2005, but lost in Stillwater to last-place Oklahoma State; in 2006, Tech averaged 33 points but scored just three at TCU and six at Colorado, both surprise losses; and last year it was crushed by 31 at Missouri but came home to beat championship-bound Oklahoma a month later.

So Texas might find itself in a game in Lubbock, but the Raiders are unlikely to survive the midseason road swing of Kansas State, Texas A&M, and Kansas unscathed, and less likely to get out of Norman with championship hopes of any sort intact. It’s significant that there are championship hopes to begin with, and that the Raiders are considered a threat in every game, but this is a strong conference and a schedule frought with land mines, likely leading to the Alamo Bowl.

14. Penn State
The continuity on defense alone justifies a push at ten wins: PSU has finished in the top ten in rushing defense, scoring defense and sacks three years in a row, and in the top fifteen in total defense; it’s also the only defense to allow less than three yards per carry each of the last three years. So nine returning starters, with much expected of the youngsters moving into the vacant positions, is an appropriate foundation for high optimism. There is no chance with this group that the bottom will fall out.

Maurice Evans will, in fact, do everything around here, if necessary. If the quarterback sucks, or whatever. Just let him know, alright?
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As good as it’s been and should continue to be, though, it’s hard to imagine the D being very much better, which shifts the onus to the offense to improve its output in big games -- against teams that finished in the final polls the last two years, the Lions are 2-7 and have averaged 15.5 points. The hope is that most of the malaise is at the feet of Anthony Morelli more than it is an indictment of the offense in general, which has a lot of potential if outfitted with a competent quarterback -- there are multiple, attractive options at running back and receiver (for the time being, anyway) and the offensive line is completely intact. They’re not a challenger to Ohio State, especially with the game in Columbus (OSU has won the last seven vs. PSU at the Horseshoe by an average of three touchdowns), but if Daryll Clark can pass well enough, or Pat Devlin run well enough, to balance the much-publicized "Spread HD," the Lions are a BCS contender. But that probably means going 6-1 against Oregon State, Purdue, Illinois, Wisconsin, Michigan (the Lions get the rebuilding Wolverines at home but have lost nine straight in the series), Iowa, and Michigan State, which is going to take more than two touchdowns per game.

13. Auburn
The big-picture on the Tigers sounds almost identical to the skinny on Penn State: a consistent, veteran defense holding down the fort while the stagnant offense decides between an emphasis on running or passing in the shift from a ‘traditional’ scheme based on power running to a new, more spread-friendly philosophy. Auburn, too, returns all five offensive linemen and a good-not-great set of skill players, and, at last rid of a longstanding burden, also finds itself torn between the athlete who emerged in the bowl game (Kodi Burns) and the passer (Chris Todd) at quarterback.

The difference is that Auburn has been more competitive against good teams (a solid 5-5 the last two years over teams that finished in the final polls, including two straight wins over Florida), and against its main target, LSU, which has been trading wins based on the site the entire decade -- though the combined margin in the last four games is just 13 points, the home team’s won eight straight in the series, and an even-numbered year means it’s Auburn’s turn. If only that were all: regardless of what happens against LSU in September, AU still must look forward to Tennessee, West Virginia (on the road, at night, in late October) and Georgia, then, if all goes according to plan, either Florida or Georgia in the SEC Championship. For a team with a new quarterback and an uncertain identity on offense, that’s too small a margin of error to forecast great things.

12. Texas
The Longhorns are supposed to be vulnerable, for a change, but aside from a question mark at running back -- and, from Priest Holmes to Ricky Williams to Hodges Mitchell to Cedric Benson to Jamaal Charles, when hasTexas not had an outstanding tailback? -- I don’t see it. They’re devoid of some of the elite stars of the past few years, temporarily, but the well is too deep and too rich to go to sleep on this bunch.

Admittedly, they weren’t very exciting last year, except at the times ‘exciting’ is not exactly a good thing -- as in, "Texas must rally from large fourth quarter deficits against Nebraska and Oklahoma State, then score 50-plus to keep pace with Texas Tech to win exciting games in consecutive weeks." Back-to-back losses to Kansas State and Texas A&M are disheartening, especially when the Big 12 schedule stiffens this time around with the additions of Kansas, Missouri and a trip to Colorado and Texas Tech in Lubbock. The defense, while typically stacked, athletically, is relatively green, especially in the secondary, and the known commodities on offense -- Colt McCoy, Quan Cosby, maybe Jordan Shipley -- are all in the ‘reliable’ mold, with nary a true gamebreaker a la Jamaal Charles in sight. It’s hard to see the defense getting away with allowing 25 points per game again, as it did last year, by far the worst performance of the Mack Brown era.

USF: Okay, this time, totally ready for their close-up.
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Without the impressive bowl rout of Arizona State, I’d have more skepticism, but Brown seemed to instill a sense of urgency and aggression in that game with the explicit purpose of beginning 2008 on the right foot, and carried that over in the offseason by hiring Will Muschamp away from Auburn to whip the defense back into shape -- and he’s certainly got the groceries, as they say. I don’t expect UT to threaten Oklahoma’s hold on the South, but even with the increased degree of difficulty, this is an immensely talented, consistent program, and it’s still a disappointment if the ‘Horns drop more than two conference games.

11. South Florida
At the start of the process of putting this poll together, I probably would have balked at the prospect of the Bulls in the top 20, much less on the cusp of the top ten -- my image of USF, after it fell out of the top 25 with three straight losses last November and then was destroyed by previously foundering Oregon in the bowl game, was still essentially of the little underdog who could, briefly, but then was destined to fall more or less by the wayside.

But I looked at the offense, which lost only the right tackle, and the defense, which has successfully hemmed in West Virginia two years in a row and returns maybe the most feared pass rusher in the nation in George Selvie, and then I look at the schedule, and I have a hard time envisioning USF entering the finale in Morgantown at worse than 9-2. Really, with Kansas coming to Tampa in September for one of the most interesting early litmus tests of the season (for both teams), I’d rank the Bulls as a tentative favorite in all eleven, and, based on the last two years, a serious threat in a winner-take-all showdown with the Mountaineers. There are a lot of caveats to that: games with KU, Cincinnati, Rutgers, and Pitt are toss-ups, to say nothing of UConn and trips to Central Florida, Louisville, and NC State, which makes for a manageable schedule but still one frought with danger; the graduation of two tremendous cornerbacks is a glaring concern, and the offense can’t get away with being as reckless with the ball as it was in losses to UConn (–1 in turnovers despite a big advantage in total yards), Cincinnati (–6), and Oregon (–4). But as long as Selvie and Matt Grothe are healthy, the ceiling here is higher than it has any right to be for a program that’s only been in existence for a little more than a decade.

As we’ve seen the last two years, the addition of the fifth big money game has cast the BCS’ net almost as wide as it can go -- as long as only two teams per conference are eligible for the Series, and assuming the runners-up in the SEC, Big 12 and Big Ten are virtual locks for three of the four at-large spots, the only possibilities for the last spot are the runners-up of the Big East, Pac Ten and ACC, a mid-major insurgent, or Notre Dame. The Irish will be better, but not that much better; the ACC and Pac Ten, behind clear favorites in Clemson and USC, do not have strong candidates to run the table in those conference the way the Bulls can behind West Virginia in the Big East. USF has taken progressively larger steps on an annual basis, from mid-major obscurity to minor bowl team, to minor bowl winner, to surprise national insurgent and legit Big East contender. If it can get past the Jayhawks in the third game, that last at-large bid would be the next logical step.

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Nos. 20-16: The Also-Rans
Nos. 21-25: The Wildcards

Tomorrow’s All-Americans Today
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Click here for the Offense.

The rules for this team: all players are second or third-year guys -- no incoming freshmen or JUCOs -- set to start for the first time this year, or otherwise to contribute heavily after a redshirt year or a season (or two) as a backup; in other words, their move into the lineup should be less like a patient adjustment period and more like shooting a cannon. No one on the team was feted with awards or freshman all-America notices, and none has more than five career starts; many have none. Because they weren’t instant impact beasts, you won’t find many of these guys near the top of the preseason position lists, but you should expect to be well-acquainted with all of them by this time next year.

If your team’s budding star was left off, it’s probably because we know too much about him already. And what’s the fun in that?

DE: Allen Bailey Miami
Burned a redshirt year on special teams and spot duty in an injury-racked linebacker corps, but moved down to replace Calais Campbell at end in the spring and allegedly left coaches’ eyeballs lying on the practice field. His strength coach called him "freakish as they come ... a big Willis McGahee," and if he helps Miami turn the ship around at all, expect at least one soft-focus-y feature on his obscure island upbringing, and killing alligators with shovels, etc.

Griffen: Bring on the hype, children. Bring it loud.
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DE: Everson Griffen  Southern Cal
It’s almost unfair to include him here, since Griffen was too hyped coming in to be "under the radar" and lived up to the ink by starting the first game against Idaho and eventually logging 5.5 sacks in a crowded rotation of ends. But he only started one more game the rest of the year, and if that performance (three sacks against Oregon State) is any indication -- or his multifaceted performance in spring practice -- his absence from all-America teams this summer is shortsighted.
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Honorable Mention: Carlos Dunlap Florida • Ben Martin Tennessee

DT: Torrey Davis Florida
Along with Dunlap, Justin Trattou and John Brown, Davis was one of the gems of Florida’s absurdly rich defensive line class last year, and though Trattou played the most of that quartet, Davis got on the field enough to drag down a couple quarterbacks (including Chad Henne in the bowl game) and has the higher ceiling. The only way he doesn’t break out if healthy is if fellow VHTs Brown, Trattou, Javier Estopinan or incoming Omar Hunter and/or Troy Epps also force their way onto the field. You can’t double team them all.

DT/DE: Eddie Jones Texas
Jones could have made this list last year as a redshirt freshman, based on his recruiting hype, but he limped through an injury and was lost in yet another of these impossibly stacked front line shuffles. He finished with 28 tackles, two sacks, but got a lot of attention in the process and should pass sometime-starter Aaron Lewis on the first team, cementing his nightmare status in the process.
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Honorable Mention: Al Woods LSU • Justin Trattou Florida • Dexter Larimore Ohio State

LB: Martez Wilson Illinois
Logged a couple sacks from defensive end as a true freshman, but plans to slide back to linebacker to take over J Leman’s "all over the field" role. Another "workout warrior" guy that Zook compared to Jevon Kearse.

LB: Chris Colasanti Penn State
The direct beneficiary of Sean Lee’s debilitating spring injury: his role starts a year earlier than expected, Colasanti is the heir apparent to the Posluszny-Connor-Lee line of deceptively fast, Caucasian linebacking terrors, and should not cede any ground to Lee if the latter returns for a sixth year in ‘09.

Kindle: Hanging on, biding his time.
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LB: Sergio Kindle Texas
Observant Texas fans like Peter Bean spent all last season wondering why the nation’s top incoming linebacker of 2006 couldn’t surpass just-okay Rashad Bobino as the starter in the middle, and after seeing him in person against Nebraska, I sympathize with their frustration. One play stood out, an overlooked burst of dominance that helped turned the game for the Longhorns: with Nebraska leading 17-3 late in the third and facing a 3rd-and-1, Kindle ran through a much bigger blocker like he wasn’t there in pursuit to the ball and leveled the runner behind the line of scrimmage. Texas got the ball back and scored 25 unanswered points. For the year, Kindle added another 37 tackles, three for loss, off the bench. He’s still listed as a backup by most accounts coming into the season, behind either Bobino or Jared Norton on the strongside, but it would be a major upset -- or else a total lack of judgment -- if Kindle finished there for the third year in a row. It’s now or never to shed the looming "bust" tag.
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Honorable Mention: Ross Homan Ohio State • Quan Sturdivant North Carolina • Chris Galippo Southern Cal • Luke Lambert Missouri

CB: A.J. Wallace Penn State
One of the top-rated corner prospects of ‘06 moved into the starting lineup opposite Justin King over the last four games last year and should ease the transition from King’s early departure. Wallace is a little bigger than King (6’1", 190) and if he’s not a weak link, the Lion defense probably won’t have one.

CB: Jordan Bernstine Iowa
Like Wallace, an elite prospect moving into the lineup for the first time, although Bernstine only sat one year at Iowa instead of two. Bernstine -- who we can say pretty definitively is not of Hebrew descent, despite the name -- is replacing Adam Shada, and should be an immediate upgrade, athletically.
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Honorable Mention: Domonique Franks Oklahoma • Deon Beasley Texas

S: Chad Jones LSU
Jones returned punts, picked off André Woodson and made one the biggest plays of the year by blitzing and stripping John Parker Wilson to set up the winning touchdown at Alabama, so he’s already known as much for his play as for his considerable hype. But unlike fellow freshman star Eric Berry at Tennessee, he didn’t start a game, so his ascension won’t really begin until he takes over for Craig Steltz at strong safety this fall.

S: Reshad Jones Georgia
Jones started a couple games last year as a redshirt freshman, and played enough to get some impressive photos onto Google Images, at least. Recruiting gurus set the bar high here: Georgia fans are already expecting Jones to contend for all-SEC in his first year as the full-time free safety. It’s a crowded field, with Berry, Chad Jones, Derek Pegues, Rashad Jackson, Major Wright, Emmanuel Cook, Curtis Taylor and his own teammate, C.J. Byrd, but not necessarily unrealistic.
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Honorable Mention: Chykie Brown Texas • Mike McNeil Auburn • Stevie Brown Michigan

A week-long look at SMQ’s preseason ballot.
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20. Illinois
The Illini are a mixed bag: on one hand, they lose two of the best players in the conference, Mendenhall and Lehman, and carry the stigma of a one-hit wonder. But the Zook recruiting boost has dramatically upgraded the overall talent and depth, and this was still a pretty young team last year -- Juice Williams, while clearly improved from his abysmal freshman effort, was still a work in progress as a passer, sophomore Vontae Davis was rounding into first round material at cornerback, and future pros Arrelious Benn (freshman), Jeff Cumberland (sophomore), Xavier Fulton (junior, at a new position) and Will Davis (junior) were all just finding their footing as first-year starters. Add to that shirtless recruits Martez Wilson, a sophomore moving to linebacker after making minor waves at end, and D’Angelo McCray, who’ll start at defensive tackle after redshirting, [McCray has transferred; see comments -- ed.] and there’s no doubt last year’s surge was no fluke, physically.

Juice: All of a sudden, the man of the house.
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But doubt persists, largely because Mendenhall’s early exit is a potential back-breaker for the entire offense. Daniel Dufrene made something of a name for himself by busting the controversial 80-yarder at Ohio State, but actually had very few opportunities (50 touches, almost half against Western Illinois, Syracuse, Indiana, Ball State and Northwestern), and is a less reliable runner at this point than Williams. But Juice remained slightly below average as a passer, and his grasp of the offense at this point isn’t going to drastically improve, if it improves at all. Without at least a worthy complimentary threat in the backfield -- and Mendenhall, obviously, was much more than that -- it’s likely we’ve seen Juice’s ceiling, and the team’s.

19. Tennessee
Here is a victim of the format: I like the Vols, and in a power poll, they might rank among the top ten or twelve teams in the country. New offensive coordinator Dave Clawson has promised balance, but with a big, 1,000-yard back -- and a couple capable young ‘uns behind him -- and the most promising, experienced offensive line this side of Oklahoma (and maybe West Virginia), the personnel on offense bodes a welcome return to the straight-ahead, physical attack that defined the Vols in their late nineties hey day, as well as the last time they won a surprise division championship with a totally green quarterback, in 2004. The defense, as porous as it was for much of last year, would not seem to bear comparison to its usually fire-breathing predecessors, but the front seven remains as talented as ever (according to Phil Steele, probable starters on the line and at linebacker include PS#1, PS#6, PS#14, PS#5 and PS#8, for what it’s worth) and the equally talented secondary seemed to progress from flailing noobs to entrenched stalwarts after being torched by Alabama in October. There’s a dropoff to the new quarterback, maybe, but under normal circumstances the defending East champs should be right back in the thick of the race.

This particular edition of the SEC East, though, is not exactly normal. If Erik Ainge had another year (surely they would have redshirted the kid in 2005 if they had seen what was coming), UT would probably be considered a legitimate aspirant to the all-consuming Florida/Georgia debate. With Jonathan Crompton under center and Florida, Georgia and Auburn in the first three conference games -- to say nothing of the opening trip to UCLA and Alabama and South Carolina by the start of November -- the Vols are everywhere an afterthought, universally consigned to the usual New Year’s date in the Outback or Bowl Formerly Known as the Citrus with a minimum of three losses. Not that there’s anything wrong with that, but the conventional wisdom reigns here. As many potential contenders as there are in the SEC, even if Tennessee manages to upset UF or UGA early, the odds of surviving to even an at-large BCS bid are too long.

18. Virginia Tech
Here is a beneficiary of the format: I’m definitely down on the Hokies in general, and in a power poll, they probably wouldn’t rank in the top 25 at all. The quarterback is either a decidedly average, within-the-offense manager prone to making his own fans wail or a very young, probably one-dimensional sophomore; the running backs left spring either booted from the team or injured; the receivers are brand spanking new, and the only potentially viable option will miss the season; and any deference to the attrition-racked defense is out of respect for coordinator Bud Foster’s track record and its association with the dominant class of veterans that just graduated en masse. If the offensive line didn’t return almost intact, there’d be no hope of coherence on offense.

But Tech has won at least eight games every year for the last decade, and at least tean games all four years since joining the ACC. With the schedule, it’s hard to see short of an unprecedented collapse how it can possibly fall short of nine or ten wins again. Tech has survived for years without much explosiveness on offense, and most of the new starters on defense played a lot last year; the last three Hokie Ds have been so outrageously good, statistically, that the new edition can suffer some significant regression and still qualify as "good." Mainly, though, the unanimous opinion -- shared here -- is that whatever the Hokies lose, there’s still no other outfit in the ACC worth taking a flier on. Most teams in this conference -- all but Clemson, in fact, which Tech doesn’t play in the regular season -- still seem to be counting on winning games by dragging proceedings into the mud and grinding scoring to a halt, and none of them yet have matched Beamer Ball for that.

Johnson: Forgotten man, but not for long.
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17. Oregon
It’s encouraging that the Ducks pulled it together for a rousing bowl game, off the post-Dixon November that rivaled only the final months at Cal and Alabama for head-exploding frustration. Without that spark, I’m not sure I or anyone else could justify any faith in this team’s resiliency -- remember, the same team lost its last four and five of its last seven in 2006, mostly by wide margins, and the ‘04 Ducks missed a bowl by losing their last three. Three November collapses in four years = extreme caution, before you even begin to account for the departure of Dixon and Jonathan Stewart.

Everywhere but quarterback, though, the Ducks look alright. Assuming Jeremiah Johnson returns to ‘06/early ‘07 form after missing the last six games (he’s just shy of 1,000 yards on well over six per carry in essentially a year-and-a-half of splitting time with Stewart), or some combination of Johnson, Andre Crenshaw and incoming LaGarrette Blount adds up to Stewart’s Herculean junior production, UO already has very good talent at receiver (Jaison Williams, USC transfer/ex-blue chip Jamere Holland, tight end Ed Dickson) and on the offensive line (center Max Unger and tackle Fenuki Tupou were all-Pac Ten by the coaches). Patrick Chung and league sack leader Nick Reed were also all-conference on a defense that returns seven of its top nine tacklers; corner Walter Thurmond was snubbed despite a terriffic stat line for a DB (8 tackles for loss, 18 passes broken up, 5 INT) -- maybe that production is an indication that he was frequently picked on (the best corners are often invisible in the box score), but at least he made some plays, too.

Anyway, the point is, Oregon shouldn’t be significantly different -- except at quarterback. As the bowl game proved, the panicked decline that followed Dixon’s injury was a consequence of the circumstances of the moment and shouldn’t indicate the team will cease to function without a Heisman contender in the shotgun. That’s good news, because it won’t have anything close to that this time -- which, of course, is the bad news. The uncertainty of what to expect from Nate Costa or Justin Roper is probably the only thing keeping the Ducks from becoming a chic pick for the top ten and an at-large BCS spot behind USC. Despite my timid personal optimism for Costa’s potential -- itself based on nothing but the fact that the team apparently was much more confident with him in the No. 2 role before his own ACL injury kept him from replacing Dixon -- I’m not about to pull the trigger on that kind of expectation for any non-Trojan team in a league with so much parity.

16. Arizona State
The same holds for the Devils, who rank ahead of Oregon only because the two play in Tempe this year. ASU remains capable on offense, led by a durable, experienced quarterback who might turn out to be the conference’s offensive MVP, in spite of his line’s fundamental inability to keep him upright; when he has time, Rudy Carpenter has as many proven options to distribute the ball to as any QB in the league. They remain capable defensively, with a solid pass rush (via end Dexter Davis), long-in-the-tooth linebackers and a couple second-year guys in the secondary (Omar Bolden and Troy Nolan) generally assumed to have bright futures. The kicker, Thomas Weber, hit all seven field goal attempts beyond 40 yards as a freshman and comes back as everybody’s all-American (although -- and I have no empirical evidence whatsoever to back this up -- I’d be willing to bet that status is not the best indicator for previously on-target guys following the seasons that produced the accolades).

The real problem with Arizona State last year was its failure to stay within striking distance of the best teams it faced; taking it to Oregon State, Stanford and Washington is one thing, but Oregon, USC and Texas made quick work of the Devils in meaningful, hyped games that in reality were never in doubt. Again, that firing-on-all-cylinders version of Oregon doesn’t translate to the ‘08 edition, but with the addition of Georgia (a big step up in degree of difficulty from last year’s non-conference "heavy," Colorado) and a trip to Berkeley to play a non-foundering version of Cal, ASU will have to show some more big game fight to avoid another BCS snub.

Not that I actually expect them to be in the running -- the schedule is rather frontloaded, with Georgia, Cal, USC and Oregon coming back-to-back-to-back-to-back in one four-game, six-week stretch at midseason, so expect to lose track of the Devils before they hit a winning streak in the final month.

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Nos. 21-25: The Wildcards

Fans who recall Miami's surprisingly well-regarded recruiting class in February -- surprising because many of the most sought-after athletes in the country apparently looked hard at a program that's 12-14 over the last two years, with a relatively small, notoriously fickle fan base, no on-campus stadium, and fatal shooting deaths of both an active player and a recent alumnus in the span of a year, along with at least one other non-fatal shooting incident since 2006, and thought, "Where do I sign up?" -- might be interested in a small story in today's Palm Beach Post detailing the likely attrition from February's haul by the time practice starts next week:

Eligibility Concerns May Delay Seven UM Recruits

CORAL GABLES — As many as seven freshmen from Miami's recruiting class may not be on hand when the Hurricanes report to school Thursday.

According to coach Randy Shannon, four incoming freshmen still have issues to resolve with the NCAA Clearinghouse and two other recruits already have enrolled in prep school after they were unable to qualify academically.
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Attrition: All in the game, dawg.
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Hat tip, as usual, to The Wizard of Odds, a noted recruiting skeptic who advises readers its "time to adjust those recruiting rankings." Not quite. The story goes on to list five players, Zach Kane, C.J. Odom, Brandon Washington, Antonio Harper and Brandon Marti. According to Rivals' archives, Harper was a three-star prospect, and Kane, Odom and Marti were all two-star players. Only Washington was considered a high-profile, four-star guy.

At 33 players, Miami's class was the largest in the country, and, because the NCAA only allows 25 signees from a single class to actually arrive on a full scholarship, assumed attrition of at least seven or eight guys. Fortunately for the 'Canes -- although not for the young men themselves -- that attrition is mostly from the bottom of the class, rather than the top; expected stars like Marcus Fortson, Arthur Brown, Shawn Spence, Aldarius Johnson and Jacory Harris (all of whom happened to be in for the spring) are, we can assume, still on track. Washington's projected loss hurts because the class, for its size, was thin on offensive lineman (besides Washington, there was only Benjamin Jones, another hometown four-star). But as for the attrition in general, it's hard for anyone to wring hands now when we knew it was coming -- unless you joined Brian Cook's earnest call to require schools to show specifically where a scholarship is coming from before they're allowed to offer it, that's how the chips fall in this business.

Tomorrow’s All-Americans Today
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The rules for this team: all players are second or third-year guys -- no incoming freshmen or JUCOs -- set to start for the first time this year, or otherwise to contribute heavily after a redshirt year or a season (or two) as a backup. No one on the team was feted with awards or freshman all-America notices, and none has more than five career starts; many have none. Because they weren’t instant impact beasts, you won’t find many of these guys near the top of the preseason position lists, but you should expect to be well-acquainted with all of them by this time next year.

If your team’s budding star was left off, it’s probably because we know too much about him already. And what’s the fun in that?

QB: Nate Costa Oregon
The easy pick might be Tyrod Taylor, one of the few young, new starters we’ve actually seen a bit of, but Taylor -- like Kevin Riley at Cal -- is not assured of beating out an entrenched veteran. Costa is not assured of his job, either, with Sun Bowl hero Justin Roper vying for the spot, but given the handwringing and "if only" laments by Duck partisans who wonder if the team might have avoided collapse with Costa in the lineup (he was out for the year with an ACL tear) after Dennis Dixon went down at Arizona, he must be the favorite. Costa definitely has the size (6-1, 220), and allegedly has the athleticism to run the entire Duck offense in a way the more pocket-bound Roper (or, say, Brady Leaf) can’t. He’ll follow a solid string of successful quarterbacks at Oregon (Akili Smith, Joey Harrington, Kellen Clemens, Dennis Dixon) and, for a third year guy, has too much remaining talent around him to hide behind any claim of "rebuilding."
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Honorable Mention: Tyrod Taylor (Virginia Tech), Kodi Burns (Auburn), Jevan Snead (Ole Miss), Steven Threet (Michigan), Josh Nesbitt (Georgia Tech), Kevin Riley (California)

With Dwyer, get used to hanging on for dear life.
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RB: Jonathan Dwyer Georgia Tech
Most places, especially in the ACC, Dwyer would be ineligible for this list because he would have moved right into a starting role as a true freshman; at Georgia Tech, he was stuck behind workhorse Tashard Choice, didn’t start a game and only logged 82 carries. But he was impressive on those runs (5.3 per carry) and will get many, many more opportunities in Paul Johnson’s offense, wherein Dwyer is projected as a "B-Back," or fullback, which takes a huge share of the snaps right up the gut; if Johnson’s lumbering fullbacks at Navy could consistently average five yards on straight-ahead option dives, as they did each of the last four years, Dwyer will be a frequent terror on the second level.

RB: Jahvid Best California
Best was about as hyped but touched the ball even less than Dwyer as a true freshman -- just 28 carries before he was hurt in the tenth game -- but like Dwyer, he made the most of his chances, ripping off a 34-yarder in his first game, against Tennessee, and a 64-yard touchdown against Colorado State the next week, good for a 7.6 average. Marshawn Lynch did about the same off the bench as a freshman, as did Justin Forsett after him, and both went on to boffo seasons as the full-time starter; Best is a track guy and, unless he’s hurt again, a lock to become Jeff Tedford’s seventh straight 1,000-yard back in seven years.
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Honorable Mention: Chris Rainey (Florida), Greg Little (North Carolina), Kendall Hunter (Oklahoma State), Caleb King (Georgia)

WR: Deonte Thompson Florida
There was no reason to burn Thompson’s redshirt with the absurdity of receiving depth bestowed upon the Tebow Child, but Deonte was widely regarded as one of the six or eight best incoming receivers in the country last year, and allegedly measures in the upper reaches of the Harvin/Rainey Scale, speed-wise. The transfer talk is apparently behind him, and many soft, fluffy, perfectly-placed, satin-seamed touchdown balls to the front.

WR: Ronald Johnson Southern Cal
RoJo was about as high profile as a cornerback recruit can be, but his freshman contribution was limited to seven mostly short, unexciting catches and most of the kick-returning duties. But he took two of those -- one against Stanford, for a touchdown, and later at Arizona State -- for 47 and 33 yards. SC needs more consistency from its receivers, and Johnson is the best bet to emerge as the reliable deep threat in a group of mostly bigger, possession-type guys.
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Honorable Mention: Terrance Toliver (LSU), Damien Williams (Southern Cal), LaTerryal Savoy (Michigan)

Johnson: If all else fails, at least he’s got a nice fan site.
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TE: Andrew Szczerba Penn State
It’s way too far out to mean anything, especially among a group of players who haven’t played a snap, but Szczerba is the early favorite among tight ends in the 2012 Draft, and he received unanimously rave reviews for hauling in five passes in the Blue-White game. With trouble magnet Andrew Quarless in front of him, Szczerba is always just one DUI or impromptu club brawl away from his big break.
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Honorable Mention: Aaron Hernandez (Florida), Zach Pianalto (North Carolina)

OT: Blake DeChristopher Virginia Tech
Redshirted last year, but moves into the Hokies’ right tackle spot with the scouts’ full attention.

OT: Kyle Hix Texas
Teammate Tray Allen may have a brighter future in the long-term, but he’s still projected behind Hix on this fall’s depth chart. Hix played in every game as a true freshman and pulled his first start in the Holiday Bowl, which, considering the competition, also happened to be the Horns’ best offensive effort of the year.

OG: Bryan Bulaga Iowa
‘Scuse me while I whip out a PS# -- for Bulaga, it was PS#5 among incoming linemen last year (sixth by Rivals), and he wound up starting the last five games on the Hawkeyes’ train wreck of a line. He didn’t singlehandedly right a foundering ship (Jake Christensen was sacked 19 times in those five games), but it set a groundwork for the expected sophomore leap.

OG: Joseph Barksdale LSU
Hyped defensive tackle recruit earned plenty of time at guard as a true freshman -- no small feat on the Tigers’ line -- and looks like he’s going to settle in at right tackle for the next three years.

C: Kris O’Dowd Southern Cal
A top-rated, five-star guard, who immediately moved into the lineup as a stopgap when senior Matt Spanos went down at midseason. His three starts qualify him as one of the old men of this year’s line, since only one other lineman (guard Jeff Byers, who could have made this list three years in a row beginning in 2005) has more.
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Honorable Mention: Butch Lewis (Southern Cal), J’Marcus Webb (Arizona, nee Texas), John Moffitt (Wisconsin), Orlando Franklin (Miami)

A week-long look at SMQ’s preseason ballot.
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There’s always a debate about exactly what a preseason poll is supposed to be. In this case, rather than a "power poll" that attempts to order teams according some abstract notion of inherent strength, the goal is to predict as closely as possible what the final poll will look like in January -- that is, since all polls then look different, as well, what my poll will look like in January, when I won’t even remember what nonsense I projected here, much less care. As such, schedules factor in pretty heavily.

25. Oklahoma State
This is, to my knowledge, only the second vote in any poll for the Cowboys, although not a surprising one for regular readers given my optimism toward OSU when I looked closely in June. For all the Texas Tech love this summer, the Cowboys outpaced the Raiders for points in conference games, had the most balanced offense in history (243.2 per game rushing, 243.2 per game passing, a year after rushing for 208 and passing for 202 in 2006) beat Tech head-to-head and return eight starters from the offense, including a duel-threat quarterback who matched Graham Harrell’s efficiency rating in Big 12 games (with 847 yards and 9 touchdowns, Zac Robinson is also the leading returning rusher); possibly the best all-around tight end in the nation (Brandon Pettigrew was the coaches’ first-team all-Big 12 pick over Martin Rucker, Jermichael Finley, Martellus Bennett, Chase Coffman, Derek Fine and Jermaine Gresham); a sophomore tailback who ran for over 700 yards as a backup (Kendall Hunter), backed up by a junior (Keith Totson) who ran for over 800 yards as a true freshman in 2006; and another up-and-coming receiving star in Dez Bryant. If the system survives the departure of coordinator Larry Fedora, OSU should easily average about 35 points for the third year in a row.

OSU: just fingertips from breaking through. Well, fingertips and a pass rush.
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Defense, obviously, remains the hang up. But the talent level on that side is improving, and this group was very, very close to breaking through last year, if not for blow second half leads against Texas A&M (one-point loss) and Texas (three-point loss) and a two-point loss to Kansas State. Overall, last year’s schedule was fairly ridiculous and gets much nicer; assuming there’s not another September surprise, a la last year’s Friday night debacle at Troy, there is no non-conference heavy on the order of Georgia, which decisively ended the buzz surrounding this team at the start of last season. The Cowboys should start no worse than 5-2 (with A&M coming to Stillwater, I’d bet 6-1), and barring a complete nosedive in November -- which means at least splitting back-to-back road games at Texas Tech and Colorado before a likely loss to Oklahoma in the finale -- should finish no worse than 8-4.

24. Kansas
As I’ve said before, KU’s run was not a fluke -- the Jayhawks only took two games by less than a touchdown, a four-point win at Colorado and the three-point win in the Orange Bowl, tough games in tough environments that they led by double digits in both cases with under four minutes to play. Their average margin of victory (26 points per game) was the highest in the country, and even when not padded with non-conference cupcakes, was the highest in Big 12 games (just shy of 19 per game). By the numbers alone, KU was the most balanced, impressive team in the country. And after the Orange Bowl win over Virginia Tech, the "no big wins" argument rings hollow.

So this is not, like, they got lucky -- personnel-wise, anyway. The schedule is another story: as shocking as the 11-0 start was, once Nebraska’s defense decided to take a year off, the Cinderella run didn’t actually require KU to play Cinderella, at all; before the finale against Missouri, in fact, the Jayhawks were favored in every game but one, when they were a mere +3 at Kansas State, a vertiable toss-up. The inter-division draw from the South was Texas A&M, Oklahoma State and Baylor, i.e. the fourth, fifth, and sixth-place finishers, which meant Kansas didn’t actually beat a team all season that finished with a winning conference record. Forget that this time around. They’ve added a tough non-conference road game (at South Florida), and four games on the conference schedule -- Oklahoma, Texas, and Texas Tech from the South, and revamped Nebraska, in Lincoln, where KU hasn’t won since the Lyndon Johnson administration -- that project as tougher than any game last year’s team won in the regular season. Then there’s still Missouri at the end.

From that perspective, it’s a testament to the respect I have for Todd Reesing and the offense’s ability to keep up with the conference’s heavier hitters that I kept the Jayhawks in the mix at all over, say, Alabama. But even if they play as well as they did last year, it will be a stunning, stunning performance to threaten double-digit wins again.

23. Cincinnati
This looks like a sketchy pick, since the Bearcats have zero top 25 votes in any other outlet and in fact are widely expected to be gasping for air and a shot at a nowhere bowl game within the mediocre Big East. Actually, though, as far as limbs go, I feel pretty good about this one.

Sixth in the Big East? Really? I can only assume the prognostoscenti is reacting to Ben Mauk’s pending ascension to the peak of Mount Sinai, or whatever, and no doubt the opinions would be more optimistic if the school’s single-season passing leader gets his sixth year between now and the end of August. Even if he doesn’t, though, UC has a fine option in Notre Dame refugee Demetrius Jones, who was too hyped coming out of high school to let his two series’ worth of halfhearted spread option against Georgia Tech cloud his potential in Brian Kelly’s offense, which has had a hell of a three-year run -- unless, I guess, you think setting single-season records at two different schools while leading both to banner seasons (Central Michigan won the MAC championship in 2006 and ten games for the first time since 1979; last year, Cincinnati finished in the final polls for the first time ever in Kelly’s first go-round) is some kind of happy accident. Jones is more athletic than Mauk or CMU’s Dan LeFevour, and has four receivers back who combined for 26 touchdowns last year. The defense has all-Big East-caliber players on the interior line (Terrill Byrd), linebacker (Corey Smith) and at corner, where Mike Mickens is consistently listed among the best cover guys in the country, with DeAngelo Smith not far behind. Given Jones’ alleged physical ability and Kelly’s recent track record with multi-faceted quarterbacks, I’m not sure what the Bearcats are supposed to be missing that makes them significantly removed from last year’s ten-game winner.

Look, I’m not saying I don’t like you. I just don’t NEED you.
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They’ll lose at Oklahoma and at West Virginia; assuming defeats in those two, to get here UC will have to go at least 3-2 in games with Rutgers, South Florida, Connecticut, Pittsburgh and Louisville, and possibly 4-1. But the ‘Cats were 3-2 against those teams last year, with wins over Rutgers, USF and UConn. It took narrow upsets at the hands of Pitt and Louisville to keep this team from joining the party-crashing ranks of Kansas and Hawaii, so I don’t see that this position is out of order at all.

22. Wake Forest
I remain extremely wary of the Deacons, who scraped to the ACC championship by the skin of their teeth two years ago and were consistently outgained again last year; they're like the MacGuyver of nine-win seasons, cobbling together underwhelming, last-second victories from third-string, two-star running backs and a little bit of twine. I only have a little faith in within-the-offense pin-up boy Riley Skinner, who slightly regressed as a sophomore, and I think the offense and return game will badly miss their best athletes, Kenneth Moore and Kevin Marion, who are not as easily replaced here as they might be on teams with deeper talent pools.

But they did it twice, in the same superficially sketchy fashion, and the ACC is so wide open that Jim Grobe is beginning to pass for a stalwart -- your middle school nephew who just woke up to the outside world in 2004 probably thinks of Wake as "always pretty strong," or something. For now, amazingly, he’s right. I still don’t think much of the offense, but aside from maybe Clemson, none of the competition in this conference is set to start lighting up scoreboards, and the defense will keep it close with just about anyone on this schedule -- again, the Tigers serving as the only possible exception, especially after ripping Wake for 44 points last year. Otherwise, the defense has nine starters back and legitimate all-America/NFL prospects in linebacker Aaron Curry and cornerback Alphonso Smith. Clutch kicking maestro Sam Swank returns, too, to turn the tables in deadlocks.

The Deacons also miss Virginia Tech, North Carolina and Georgia Tech from the Coastal and don’t face a tougher non-conference test than Ole Miss, at home. So while I’m sure there are at least three losses in the schedule, the only one I can actually identify is Clemson -- and that’s in Winston-Salem, so who knows.

21. Nebraska
Again, I find myself completely alone in endorsing the Huskers, although in this case the reluctance is perfectly understandable: the lingering stench from last year’s "defense" continues to overwhelm whatever silver lining exists in luring one of the country’s best defensive architects to guide possibly the most talented team in the division. Only Steele picks the Huskers ahead of Kansas in the North, and even he’s not willing to pull the trigger on a top 25 bid.

I’ve already articulated why I think it’s unfair to hold last year as the measuring stick for a team that won the division in 2006 and, however far it had fallen from the power-running, chart-topping glory days, had never descended to such depths before. The pieces are in place for a quick recovery, mainly on the offense, which was crazy (600 yards, 54 points per game) in Joe Ganz’s three starts. Cut that by a full third, and it’s still pretty good, as long as the defense returns from oblivion to something remotely resembling competence. In terms of athleticism and experience, the odds are good, and the arrival of Pelini -- whose defense legitimately rocked here in his only season as coordinator, 2003 -- puts me on the optimistic side of that question. There is also no way the team has the misfortune of finishing –19 in turnover margin two years in a row. Again, going back to Pelini’s only season, the ‘03 Huskers were one of the best in the country at taking the ball away, finishing +23; they haven’t finished on the plus side of the turnover battle since. Success has followed Pelini so far, and this pick puts all its eggs in his basket.

As I’ve suggested, the key to the Huskers’ season is the date with Virginia Tech in Lincoln on Sept. 27. They’ll be 3-0 (god help them if they’re not 3-0 against Western Michigan, San Jose State and New Mexico State, god help us all), coming off a bye week and looking past the Hokies at back-to-back games Missouri and Texas Tech to open the conference season. Va Tech is vulnerable in their own right, and if Nebraska can get by that one, it can get away with a .500 record in-conference and still count the effort as a confident step forward.