Sunday Morning Quarterback: FanPosts

The Real Final NCAA Football Poll

2009-01-09T22:53:32Z

Like any right-minded College Football fan out there I would obviously like the Championship to be settled on the field in a Playoff system. But unfortunately we have to play with the cards we were dealt and this year’s season is yet another year of BCS football travesty.

RESUMES RESUMES RESUMES!!! This is the way we have to judge teams, when ranking them when there is no playoff system to crown a True Champion. This is not a pre season poll where you just vote for the team with the most talent. Analysis of these top teams in necessary to decide on a champion, and this takes a deep looking into because the answers aren’t right on the table and as obvious as many may think.

When analyzing these contenders the key factors in ranking them is not only the obvious elements like wins, losses, talent, and performance, but strength of schedule, home and road results, and the quality of their wins and losses. And yes there is such thing as a quality loss for all of you out there who don’t think so, especially in a league that is set up this way, so deal with it. A home loss is much worse then a road loss. A loss to a middle of the pack or unranked team is much worse then losing to a top 5 team. But in no way does a loss in week 1 count as less of a loss, then a loss in week 12 to me. Something I have never understood. Putting all this into play here are my final rankings.

My Final Top 10

10. TCU (11-2)

The Horned Frogs put together an excellent under the radar season. They had 5 key games on the schedule including their bowl game that provide clear criteria of where they rank in the country.

Vs Stanford 31-14

At #2 Oklahoma 10-35

Vs #9 BYU 32-7

At #8 Utah 10-13

Bowl #9 Boise St 17-16

Not only did they impress in these 5 tough matchups, but they also took care of business in style against the rest of their schedule. In their 8 other victories only 1 of them was by less then 23 points. The only thing that holds me back from putting them higher in the rankings is that missing big win vs a big name team, as shallow as that may sound.

9. OHIO ST (10-3)

The Buckeyes had a more then solid season despite the false high expectations in the preseason. They managed to work in freshmen quarterback Terrelle Pryor without giving up that Top 10 status in the end of the story.

At #1 USC 3-35

At #18 Wisconsin 20-17

At #20 Michigan St 45-7

Vs #3 Penn St 6-13

At #24 Northwestern 45-10

Vs Michigan 42-7

Bowl #3 Texas 21-24

Getting spanked in USC early in the year was definitely embarrassing, but Tressel always has control of his team, and they did a great job recovering for the rest of the regular season. They had another tough big publicized loss at home vs Paterno’s Penn St team, but a really strong showing in the Fiesta Bowl vs a much stronger Texas team really impressed me. Tressel got the most out of this team in my opinion and a year of experience for Pryor will do nothing but benefit Ohio St in the years to come. And of course you can never forget the fact they beat Michigan.

8. PENN ST (11-2)

The Nittany Lions had an outstanding year, spending the majority of the season in Championship contention. Joe Pa continues to add to his legacy as Penn St arrived back on the National Stage by winning the less respected Big 10.

Vs Oregon St 45-14

At Wisconsin 48-7

At #9 Ohio St 13-6

At Iowa 23-24

Vs #15 Michigan St 49-18

Bowl #5 USC 24-38

An enormous win at Ohio St is what really legitimized Penn St on the national scene, but a slip up in Iowa cost them a shot at the title in a tough Big 10 game. They were extremely overmatched in the Rose Bowl vs USC.

7. TEXAS TECH (11-2)

The Red Raiders and their Cinderella story lasted longer then anyone predicted, as they went to the third weekend in November undefeated. A huge miracle ending vs Texas was the best finish of the NCAA Football season and legitimized Texas Tech’s resume.

Vs Nebraska 37-31 ot

At #23 Kansas 63-21

Vs #1 Texas 39-33

Vs #9 Oklahoma St 56-20

At #5 Oklahoma 21-65

Bowl #25 Ole Miss 34-47

A follow up spanking of Oklahoma St continued the growing respect for the Red Raiders, but the biggest challenge was on the road vs the Sooners where they were completely out of their element. This loss had most followers of the game lose a lot of respect for this team immediately when it came to National Championship contention debates. This loss snowballed for Texas Tech as the disappointment was clearly still in the heads of the Red Raiders when they played their bowl game vs Ole Miss.

6. ALABAMA (12-2)

The Crimson Tide had a tremendous season, despite the disappointing 2 consecutive losses to end it. They spent the bulk of the end of the regular season as the #1 team in the nation with head coach Nick Saban leading the way. The fact that Saban was able to turn this program into a National Champion contender instantly shows how great of a college coach he is. Once he gets a team full of his guys, and more Nick Saban SEC speed, they are sure to be regular contenders every season.

N #9 Clemson 34-10

At #3 Georgia 41-30

Vs Ole Miss 24-20

At #16 LSU 27-21 ot

SEC C #4 Florida 20-31

Bowl #6 Utah 17-31

Huge unexpected wins against Clemson and Georgia set the tide for Bama, but the postseason collapses pushes them to the 6 spot. The Andre Smith absence was clearly a factor vs Utah in the bowl game, but would it really have mattered enough to make up for the difference in heart that was shown in that game.

5. USC (12-1)

The Trojans once again had all the tremendous talent you could wish for on an NCAA roster. They proved when they play their A game they can beat any team in the country, BUT their big slip up at Oregon St and lack of a real supreme tough game on the schedule dismisses them from the National Championship discussion.

Vs #5 Ohio St 35-3

At Oregon St 21-27

Vs #23 Oregon 44-10

Vs #21 California 17-3

Bowl #8 Penn St 38-24

One thing I do respect a lot about the USC team though is the pro style offense they run. It fits my interest to watch a team play real football rather then gimmicks or a repeated system over and over. Back to the rankings though, and USC fits in perfectly at #5. Most will think they should be higher but the resume doesn’t support them, bottom line.

4. OKLAHOMA (12-2)

The Sooners probably will be disappointed seeing their final rank be around the #4 spot on most polls, but besides losing in the BCS Championship game they will walk away from this season with their heads held high. With Heisman Trophy Winner Sam Bradford, and a Big 12 Title added to the trophy case, they had a fantastic season.

Vs Cincinnati 52-26

Vs #24 TCU 35-10

N #5 Texas 35-45

Vs #16 Kansas 45-31

Vs Nebraska 62-28

Vs #2 Texas Tech 65-21

At #12 Oklahoma St 61-41

B12 C #20 Mizzou 62-21

BCS C #2 Florida 14-24

Yes, Bob Stoops has continued to disappoint in all of his big games since his title, but they still are the runner up of the season and had some of the best statistics offensively that we will ever see.

There is no better way to complete a BCS ran College Football season then with complete chaos and no clear champion. And not by coincidence that is exactly how I end mine, as I have a 3-way tie for the National Champion.

1. UTAH (13-0)

The Utes have the ultimate argument on their side, and its in plain black and white, they are the ONLY undefeated College Football team in the nation.

At Michigan 25-23

Vs Oregon St 31-28

Vs #12 TCU 13-10

Vs #14 BYU 48-24

Bowl #4 Alabama 31-17

They impressed us all with their Sugar Bowl performance vs Bama, with their heart and preparation it looked as if they could have played anyone in the nation on that night. They had two nice victories vs middle of the pack BCS conference teams, one of which beat USC.

Utah proved they definitely aren’t undefeated just because they played a lesser schedule as they beat Alabama worse then the Gators did. That zero in the loss column solidifies their argument when its all said and done.

1. FLORIDA (13-1)

The Gators best argument for the rights to the National Championship is they won the Championship Game, no matter how flawed the system is. They may have had a early hiccup vs Ole Miss, but they recovered just like team leader Tim Tebow promised.

Vs Ole Miss 30-31

Vs #4 LSU 51-21

Vs #6 Georgia 49-10

Vs #25 South Carolina 56-6

At #20 Florida St 45-15

SEC C #1 Alabama 31-20

BCS C #1 Oklahoma 24-14

The fact that the Gators went on to defeat conference foes LSU and Georgia by such margins, made most forget about the Ole Miss HOME loss. The postseason wins vs Alabama and Oklahoma both ranked #1 at the moment in polls, clearly makes any argument without the Gators as partial champions unacceptable. But the I do feel that the Gators could have put the nail in the coffin to be lone champions if they really came out and impressed vs the Sooners. If they were able to put it to Oklahoma, the critics would most likely to ignore a lot of these arguments that I have presented for the other teams. But they didn’t.

1. TEXAS (12-1)

The Longhorns argument needs to be made, as they have been the overlooked team in the National Championship discussion all season. The team that got the raw deal all season is the Texas Longhorns. There is no if ands or buts about that. Robbing them of a Big 12 Conference Championship appearance basiclly cost them any shot they had at all heralded accomplishments. Bye Bye National Title Game hopes. Bye Bye Colt McCoy Heisman Trophy votes and bye bye public perception and support. The only loss Texas received was on the road vs an undefeated team that was ranked in the top 3 for a bulk of the year. It was also on a miracle touchdown as time expired (things that need to be recognized).

N #1 Oklahoma 45-35

Vs #11 Mizzou 56-31

Vs #6 Oklahoma St 28-24

At #7 Texas Tech 33-39

At Kansas 35-7

Bowl #10 Ohio St 24-21

Yes, I have supported Texas all season as I labeled them what I thought was the best team in the nation for the majority of the season. And when they had the opportunity to make a statement in the Fiesta Bowl they didn’t make the most of it, but when putting more thought into, they also played an extremely well coached Ohio St team on a neutral site. This team had 6 weeks to prepare for Texas, and Texas not bringing their A game was still good enough to win the game when it counted.

So sorry for the let down guys, but as long as the BCS is deciding things, these are the Championship results that are to be expected.

Peter Lomuscio

Nestor Walker is going to take your dee comitts

2009-01-05T06:04:51Z

Yes you good Defense players will go with Walker and again you will be lost in Westwoodie at the Mother Load. I know you hang out their because the seats are the way you like it. so have a terrible day and make sure you step on that banana peel. OH by the way your QB recuit looked like Craft out there tonight only thing that was good for you was Pressy, but that was when Barkley was hitting him on the numbers. Maybe Chow Chow can steal him or maybe Weissel Man can teach him Texas holdem or how to bet a pool? So I guess it is time to say yo bartender Jo Boo needs a refill!

The Heisman Trophy

2008-12-13T07:29:48Z

Tonight will be the 74th Heisman Trophy presentation, and despite not knowing who will receive this honor yet, I am already disappointed. Is this disappointment because a very deserving quarterback from Texas tech isn’t even at the ceremony after an amazing statistical season? Or is it because a fan favorite and constant nationally publicized quarterback from Florida might repeat as the winner because of regional voting and the bigger spotlight? Either way I’m prepared for yet another miserable Heisman result.

It needs to be pointed out how the Heisman trophy has began to lose its luster in my lifetime. What was once argued to be one of the most prestigious honors in all of sports has started to become an award that guarantees lack of success in the NFL. I know this award is for the best college player, but it has to bother the NCAA that this celebrated player has had such a tough time succeeding in his football future.

Let me move on to another part of the Heisman presentation that annoys me this year. Can someone tell me how Graham Harrell isn’t even invited to this ceremony after the year he just had? Harrell threw for 4747 passing yards with 47 total tds and 7 interceptions, with a 71.5 completion percentage. And in case you think he ran up his stats against lesser opponents in his 3 games against Oklahoma, Oklahoma St, and Texas he had 1291 passing yards with 11 tds and 1 interception. I know he is apart of a great offensive system at Texas Tech, but after the success not only statistically, but the winning he has been robbed of this honor that he has earned.

Now to the biggest argument of all, who should win the Heisman Trophy? When looking at the statistics of the 3 invited finalists for this trophy, Sam Bradford and Colt McCoy clearly have the lead over Tim Tebow. But many experts because of the fascination with Florida quartback Tim Tebow have overlooked this. Let me first say Tim Tebow is a tremendous college football player. He is the leader of this Florida Gators team, and is an even better man off the field. I have a great amount of respect for the man, but in saying that he doesn’t deserve the Heisman Trophy. He has received a big advantage because of his final win being so big on national TV vs. Alabama. But the competition has outplayed him handedly. The Tebow argument I hear from all of Tebow’s supporters is, “it’s not all about statistics, he is just a winner,” which I completely understand, and I completely understand this as I take the full picture into effect. But I bet they weren’t saying that last year when Tebow had the stats, but not the record last season. Back to this season, for all the, “Tebow’s a winner,” guys out there, Tebow and the Gators lost to Ole Miss with the game in Tebow’s hands, as he got stopped on a 4th and 1 play. Colt McCoy on the other hand got his lone loss after because his defense couldn’t hold the lead with under a minute left after Colt led his team to a game-leading touchdown. Then there is Sam Bradford who has just been the engine to the most prolific offense in College Football history. He has all the stats and has been extremely impressive in leading Oklahoma to the National Championship game.

So my ballot would go 1 Colt McCoy 2 Sam Bradford 3 Tim Tebow. Colt has in my opinion had the best overall season and has done more individually then his fellow college quarterbacks. He has also done this with the worst supporting cast of the 3, no offense to the Longhorn offense.

Peter Lomuscio

Question: What percentage of teams win based on the Vegas point spread?

2008-11-13T22:42:55Z

Question: What percentage of teams win based on the Vegas point spread?

Why I asked the Question: I entered my first NFL survivor pool this year and wanted to know at what point spreads do the chances increase for guessing the correct winner between two teams.

Analysis: I did an online search trying to find the past lines with little luck. There are a ton websites on gambling and after going through a few hundred, I found the following that had the lines:

http://www.footballlocks.com/nfl_point_spreads.shtml

- NFL lines for 2006 and 2007 (towards bottom of page):

http://www.collegefootballpoll.com/weekly_picks.html

- College lines back to the 2003 season.

Even though I was not looking for the college number, I decided to run the numbers anyway. I did want more data for the NFL , especially since they have about 200 less games with point spreads than college games do (in 2007 there were 677 college games with lines vice 353 NFL games). I then noticed that Phil Steele's Pro Football publication had the lines back to 2003. I asked them where they got there numbers and they gave me the following website which has NFL and college lines back to 2001:

http://www.ncsports.com/online/schedulepage.html

A combo of the two databases could be used, but Vegas and the people betting on the games seemed to be less accurate guessing college games (probably for less information available), so the two were kept separate.

Games with ½ point spreads had less games than the other games around them, so I also created a weighted percentage. It is 50% from that specific line, 16 % for each ½ point away and 9% for each 1 point away. This helps with evening out impacts a huge upset in the extreme values. For example Stanford's 24-23 upset of USC when they were a 39.5 point underdog. There were much more lines at even numbers vice ½ so this help to smooth the winning percentages from one value to the next.

Note: The college games from 2005 don't have ½ point lines.

So far I have complete comparisons on NFL 2004 to 2007 and college 2005 to 2007 and here is the results. I will add data as I find time to go back through the previous years..

NFL – Vegas's line's year by year winning percentage:

2007 69.6%

2006 59.6%

2005 75.1%

2004 64.1%

Total 67.1%

College - Vegas's line's year by year winning percentage:

2007 73.7%

2006 75.4%

2005 72.3%

Total 73.8%

Percent chance for a team to win the game base on point spread (using the weighted values)

Percentage	NFL	College
100	15	41
95+	14	21.5
90+	14	16.5
85+	11.5	16
80+	8	14
75+	8	13.5
70+	7	6.5
65+	5	5.5
60+	3.5	5
55+	1	2
50+	--	1
45+	--	--

Complete NFL list (2004 to 2007)

Vegas Spread	Total wins	Total losses	Winning Percent	Weighted (50%,34,16%)	Percentage break points
24.5	1	0	100	100
22	1	0	100	100
20	1	0	100	100
19	1	0	100	100
18	1	0	100	100
16.5	4	0	100	100
16	2	0	100	100
15.5	3	0	100	100
15	4	0	100	100	100%
14.5	3	0	100	98.77
14	2	0	100	95.67	90%-95%
13.5	11	2	84.62	87.78
13	11	3	78.57	83.45
12.5	8	1	88.89	85.74
12	5	1	83.33	84.34
11.5	7	1	87.5	85.63	85%
11	12	3	80	82.42
10.5	14	2	87.5	84.35
10	21	7	75	80.3
9.5	29	3	90.63	85.26
9	26	8	76.47	81.94
8.5	9	1	90	85.09
8	21	3	87.5	81.94	75%-80%
7.5	18	11	62.07	71.5
7	49	14	77.78	72.44	70%
6.5	31	17	64.58	67.08
6	37	22	62.71	66.72
5.5	26	9	74.29	69.31
5	18	8	69.23	67.37	65%
4.5	16	12	57.14	62.96
4	31	15	67.39	64.39
3.5	62	33	65.26	62.17	60%
3	107	90	54.31	57.91
2.5	23	20	53.49	56.47
2	22	12	64.71	59.28
1.5	16	14	53.33	55.78
1	26	21	55.32	55.73	55%
	679	333

Complete College list (2005 to 2007)

Vegas Spread	Total wins	Total losses	Winning Percent	Weighted (50%,34,16%)	Percentage break points
46	1	0	100	100
45	1	0	100	100
44	1	0	100	100
43	1	0	100	100
42	2	0	100	100
41	1	0	100	100	100%
40.5	1	0	100	96
40	2	0	100	91.5
39.5	1	1	50	75
39	4	0	100	91.5
38.5	2	0	100	96
38	2	0	100	97.33
37.5	1	0	100	93.19
37	2	1	66.67	80.9
36	6	1	85.71	87.19
35	4	0	100	94.9
34.5	2	0	100	98.86
34	8	0	100	100
33.5	1	0	100	100
33	4	0	100	100
32.5	1	0	100	100
32	6	0	100	100
31.5	3	0	100	100
31	9	0	100	100
30.5	1	0	100	100
30	10	0	100	99
29.5	2	0	100	96.28
29	7	1	87.5	90.35
28.5	4	1	80	87.88
28	14	0	100	94.93
27.5	5	0	100	96.98
27	11	1	91.67	95.83
26.5	2	0	100	98.58
26	20	0	100	98.61
25.5	4	0	100	98.45
25	10	1	90.91	95.45
24.5	6	0	100	98.45
24	14	0	100	98.83
23.5	4	0	100	99.06
23	17	1	94.44	97.22
22.5	4	0	100	99.06
22	18	0	100	99.1
21.5	5	0	100	98.03	95%
21	33	2	94.29	94.08
20.5	7	1	87.5	89.18
20	30	4	88.24	86.9
19.5	4	1	80	84.38
19	22	4	84.62	87.71
18.5	5	0	100	94.35
18	30	1	96.77	94.79
17.5	16	2	88.89	92.88
17	47	3	94	93.22
16.5	15	0	100	92.61	90%
16	35	9	79.55	83.87	85%
15.5	9	3	75	79.84
15	29	5	85.29	81.95
14.5	15	4	78.95	80.58
14	55	10	84.62	81.69	80%
13.5	21	6	77.78	76.97	75%
13	37	13	74	73.93
12.5	6	4	60	70.23
12	48	9	84.21	80.17
11.5	8	1	88.89	84.2
11	41	7	85.42	82.75
10.5	13	4	76.47	77.3
10	37	20	64.91	71.76
9.5	8	2	80	75.62
9	44	16	73.33	73.85
8.5	9	3	75	75.07
8	43	18	70.49	73.17
7.5	21	4	84	77.44
7	61	36	62.89	70.71
6.5	33	6	84.62	75.71	70%
6	54	33	62.07	67.1
5.5	17	8	68	66.54	65%
5	49	28	63.64	62.51	60%
4.5	11	9	55	58.44
4	50	33	60.24	58.49
3.5	25	20	55.56	56.65
3	65	51	56.03	56.84
2.5	30	21	58.82	57.07
2	53	40	56.99	55.79	55%
1.5	11	11	50	52.87
1	55	47	53.92	53.5
	1426	507

It doesn't have to be Sunday to talk about the sham that is the BCS!

2008-11-06T19:14:10Z

In light of recent comments about the BCS format by Pete Carroll and Joe "Pa" Paterno, I'd like to go ahead and begin the discussion about the BCS versus a playoff system. I'm quite sure there are as many ideas for a playoff system as there are conspiracy theories about the JFK assassination. Well, here's another idea. Heck! It's probably been thought of already. If so, I haven't heard of it. Here goes.

At the end of the regular college football season (to include the completion of conference championship games), take the top eight ranked teams and put them in a playoff system. (Surely, the six current BCS teams who won their conference outright would be in the top eight). "WAIT A MINUTE" YOU MAY BE SAYING! Just because a team won their division doesn't necessarily mean they're going to be in the top eight. True. If they aren't, then something definitely must have been wrong with that team and/or the conference they were in for that particular year. (Lousy teams, poor strength of schedule or ridiculous parody in that particular conference are a few examples).

The BCS people (whoever that mysterious lot is) can still call it the BCS because the four major bowl games are what initially determines who will continue on to a National Title game. The playoff system would run like this:

Use each of the four major bowl games; Rose, Fiesta, Sugar, and Orange as the start off point for the playoffs. New Years day could host the Rose and Fiesta bowls and Jan 2nd could host the Sugar and Orange bowls. If Jan 1st and 2nd don't fall on a Friday and Saturday, then ensure that the games are held on the 1st Friday and Saturday of the month. Can you imagine all the hype that using bowl games as the "jump off" point for a college football playoff would create? Whoa man! It would be glorious!

The following Saturday would host the two semi-final games on two neutral sites and the Saturday after that would host the championship game at a neutral site as well. If this format were used for Jan. 2009, the last game would be on Jan 17. Can you imagine a college football playoff coinciding with the NFL playoffs? Hallelujah! Holy &%*#! Where's the tylenol? :-)

For those that feel that the regular season would lose its luster, (hello John Saunders) that's just completely silly. Every week still counts just as much, but now, even more so! Everyone vying for a shot at eight elite spots? How on earth does that diminish the excitement of the regular season?

Any argument for the bowl games losing their luster is silly as well. Your bowl game has just been given added value! And as for the four major bowl cities; Los Angeles, Tempe, New Orleans & Miami, you could still host the final championship game just as you do now with the BCS. Every year, one of the four major cities would take turns hosting. The college football season would only be extended by two weeks. Surely the coaches and players can live with that. Below is a purely hypothetical scenario using current rankings and the dates of January, 2009 as an example:

Final Rankings:

SEC (Alabama)
Big 12 (Texas Tech)
Big 10 (Penn State)
Pac 10 (USC)
Big East (West Virginia) - Good example of a team that probably wouldn't be ranked in the top eight. If not, so be it. Whatever team is ranked 5th (in this scenario) would be the fortunate team. It may even be a team that already has a representative from their respective conference. A division title doesn't automatically give you the right to be in the elite eight. (Texas) would be next in line based on current BCS standings.
ACC (Georgia Tech) - Another example of a divsion winner not in the elite eight. (Florida) would be next in line based on current BCS standings.
At large (Oklahoma)
At large (Utah)

*** Yes, I know. In this scenario it would be possible that the Big 12 would have three teams in the playoffs. It's not their fault that they're good. ***

# 1 Alabama vs. #8 Utah (Sugar Bowl) Friday, Jan 2nd

# 2 Texas Tech vs. # 7 Oklahoma (Fiesta Bowl) Saturday, Jan 3rd - REMATCH!!!

# 3 Penn State vs. # 6 Georgia Tech or Florida (Orange Bowl) Friday, Jan 2nd - ugh! not very neutral.

# 4 USC vs. # 5 West Virginia or Texas (Rose Bowl) Saturday, Jan 3rd

Following Saturday, Jan 10th (Again, hypothetical scenario / results)

#1 Alabama vs. #4 USC - Neutral site

# 2 Texas Tech vs. #3 Penn State - Neutral Site

Following Saturday, Jan 17th (Again, hypothetical scenario / results)

#1 Alabama vs. #2 Texas Tech - Los Angeles, Tempe, New Orleans, or Miami in succession.

*** Result? Fans get their playoff championship and the BCS gets their money...And then some! *** Any takers?

OU 42 UT28

2008-10-08T13:41:24Z

Oklahoma is going to roll this Saturday!

UT's secondary can not handle Juaquin Iglesias, Manny Johnson, Ryan Broyles and Jermaine Gresham... especially with Sam Bradford standing tall behind a huge O-Line. I know, I know... "Will Muschamp has energized the UT defense"... Whatever. Unless he's suited up and on the field; he will not be able to help his young secondary.

UT can't run the football. Colt McCoy will get his head knocked off if he trys to be the hero and run all over the place. Chris Ogbonaya is not the answer, sorry 'Horns.

OU has tons of wrinkles up their sleeves. Remember last year... OU threw the wide receiver screen about 1,001 times and it worked every time. UT was dumbfounded by it. Stoops will expose the weaknesses of the UT defense.

Boomer Sooner!

Poll

Who will win the Red River Shootout?

OU

2 votes

UT

9 votes

11 votes | Poll has closed

College Football Question: Penn State University

2008-10-04T22:50:01Z

Among all the questions coming into this week regarding weather or not the Penn State University Nittany Lions were "the real deal," I have to pose another question. I was watching the PSU-Purdue game today, and I understand all the traditions that are carried by the PSU football team, but would it be too much to ask for PSU to put the Nittany Lion logo on their helmet? Or, if you don't want to put the logo on the helmet, what about just a plain block letter "S" in Nittany Lion Blue? I don't know, but the plain white helmet just seems like it has something missing.

Additionally, for news and scores on the Collegiate and Pro-Football level, head on over to The Pigskin Report. It offers news and analysis from college and pro level games, as well as scores, rankings, and polls in College Football Gameday Central, and NFL Gameday Central.

Tiger Walk

2008-10-03T17:49:56Z

Good game against Tennessee last although a little closer than should have been. Big game tomorrow against a conference rival, Vanderbilt. Lets give it to em! Auburns really got the talent to go far this year. We're 4-1 so far we got to just conintue playing tough and who knows maybe we'll go to the champinoship. We got the talent and the coaching, lets just put it together on the field. Check out the Tiger Walk

USC Song Girls

2008-09-25T18:20:35Z

Yeahhh Trojans!!! Way to kick buckeyes butt! And they thought they even had a chance. Are they out of their minds??? I mean come on we are stackeddd. Maybe now they’ll realize how much better we are than them. I sure hope Oregon St. is ready for us cuz if not it'll be another shellacking. Check out the Sensational Song Girls of USC GO TROJANS!!!!! Lets get ready for the bowl game!! :) # 1 babyyy

College Football Question: The Big East

2008-09-22T14:16:29Z

Before I get to my question of the week, I'd like to congratulate Mizzou's Chase Daniel for another spectacular performance in which he passed for 439 yards and completed a Big 12 best. As it stands right now, Daniel looks to be the clear cut front runner for the Heisman (based on stats alone, mind you). I don't want to get too anxious yet, however, because It is fairly easy to put up those kinds of numbers when the toughest team on your schedule to this point was Illinois. The next three weeks will be very interesting, and could make or break Daniel's ligitimacy, as Mizzou travels to Nebraska, heads back home for Oklahoma State, and then travels to Texas to take on the Longhorns. I'll consider Daniel ligit if and when he comes away with wins from those teams.

As for this edition of College Football Question, I hail from outside of Pittsburgh, and with Pittsburgh being part of the Big East, I thought I'd gear my question towards that conference. As it stands right now, the only team ranked in the top 25 is the University of South Florida. Yes, you heard me right, USF. The Mountaineers of West Virginia University keep laying eggs against teams that they should flat out beat. Pittsburgh isn't doing so well. Even though they did win on Saturday against Iowa, they won by a point, and had to battle back to do so. Additionally, the Panthers already have a loss against Bowling Green. Right now, it seems to me that the Big East is the weakest conference in college football, which is why I pose the question how strong is the Big East conference? Do you think that it can rebound from its near complete departure from the world of "rankedhood?"

College Football Question: Thursday Night Football

2008-08-20T11:49:18Z

They say in college the weekend begins on Thursday and often goes through until Wednesday. Thursday Night Football on ESPN and ESPN 2 helps to solidify that fact by broadcasting some interesting match-ups in prime time. Thursday Night Football serves as a way for some of the lesser known programs in college football to get their schools some quality air-time. This season, some lesser known schools, as well as some big name programs, will be featured in the time slot. The gods of college football don't flake out on the fans either. There are some big time games on Thursdays this year, including a huge PAC-10 clash between USC and Oregon, as well as a titanic Big-East game between Pitt and South Florida. There's also the ever popular Lone Star Showdown between Texas and Texas A&M. Here's the complete schedule for the 2008 season of Thursday Night Football.

August 28
North Carolina State at South Carolina (ESPN)
Oregon State at Stanford (ESPN2)
September 4
South Carolina at Vanderbilt
September 11
North Carolina at Rutgers
September 18
West Virginia at Colorado
September 25
USC at Oregon State
October 2
Pittsburgh at South Florida
October 9
Clemson at Wake Forest
October 16
Florida State at North Carolina State
October 23
Auburn at West Virginia
October 30
South Florida at Cincinnati
November 6
Maryland at Virginia Tech
November 13
Virginia Tech at Miami
November 20
Miami at Georgia Tech
November 27 (Thanksgiving)
Texas A&M at Texas
December 4
Louisville at Rutgers

Out of these games, which game are you most looking forward to?

The New Location for SMQ!

2008-08-16T00:28:09Z

or "Why does this blog still have Richard Nixon's eerie smile as the most recent post"

As anyone can tell from the big honkin' "Farewell" in the middle of the front page the author of this great blog has moved on to new and, we assume, better paying ventures. Unfortunately that means for everyone who had come to rely on this site for its in-depth coverage a wide-angle view of the world of college football, your bookmarks are now obsolete. Fortunately, the same author, Matt Hinton, is still writing for the public and you can still read him regularly. Just update your favorites to include Dr. Saturday.* Whatever you crave from a college football blog the good doctor is still serving it up regularly, just under the protective umbrella of Internet monolith Yahoo!. Come and get your fill!

I suggest every fan of this site make it over to the new site and wish Matt well. Let him know we're still there for him. By my count his work has so far received just 2 comments after 4 days and 33 posts. I for one wish Mr. Hinton many more seasons of happy blogging, and sincerely hope no one tries to try and earn a few more bucks by subjugating Dr. Saturday to Yahoo! Insider status or something.

*If that link is not working for any reason just copy this URL directly into your browser.

http://sports.yahoo.com/ncaaf/blog/doc_saturday

Beyond the Box Score: SEC Edition (Part Two)

2008-08-03T20:40:12Z

We pick up today where Part One left off: with the West Division.

West Division

LSU (6-2)

Game-Changing Stats

Pass Defense.
Total Defense, Passing Downs.
Total Defense, close games.
Total Offense, 1st Downs.

Top Ranks

#2: Defensive 1st Down S&P+.
#2: Offensive 1st Down Line Yards+.
#3: Defensive 2nd Down S&P+, Passing.
#3: Defensive EqPts+.

Bottom Ranks

#91: Defensive Q3 S&P+, Passing.
#85: Defensive 3rd Down S&P+, Rushing.
#65: Offensive Q2 S&P+, Passing.
#60: Defensive Q4 Line Yards+.

How far does "They're LSU" get you? The #1 thing that impacted LSU's success in 2007 was pass defense. Overall, their pass defense numbers were great, but they had some Passing Down breakdowns here and there, and it sometimes kept opponents in games. So now All-American safety Craig Steltz is gone, stud CBs Chevis Jackson and Jonathan Zenon are gone...and all that remains is a whole mess of young 4- and 5-star recruits. They're LSU, after all. Phil Steele projects their starting secondary to be a senior FS (Curtis Taylor), two sophomores (Jai Eugene, Chad Jones) and a freshman (Patrick Johnson). You know that these players will end up strong one day, but...well, how much did an inexperienced pass D hold Florida back in 2007?

The one thing LSU will have that Florida didn't last year is an insanely good defensive line. It's amazing how much better you cover when opposing QBs only have about 1.5 seconds to find a target. DEs Kirston Pittman and Tyson Jackson return, as does DT Marlon Favorite. Granted, they have to replace new Kansas City Chief Glenn Dorsey, but...his replacement was the defensive MVP in the national title game last year. Folks are assuming that Ricky Jean-Francois is ready to dominate every bit as much as Dorsey did last year, and he's done nothing to prove that the assumptions are incorrect...as long as he can stay on the field (he was under academic suspension for the entire 2007 regular season). With possibly the best DL in the country, the DBs shouldn't find themselves in too many awkward situations.

As for their offense (particularly their 1st-down offense)...well, when you lose your leading rusher (Jacob Hester), it's nice to have the option of replacing him with any number of guys (Keiland Williams, Trindon Holliday, Charles Scott, Richard Murphy) who averaged well over 6 yards per carry. It's also nice to have them running behind one of the best OL's in the country.

Summary: Really, the only reason LSU's not a runaway #1 pick in 2008 is that Ryan Perrilloux went and got himself kicked off the team, and LSU's starting QB will either be a RSFr (Jarrett Lee), a true Fr (Jordan Jefferson), or a Harvard transfer (Andrew Hatch). But let's be honest--Matt Flynn wasn't exactly Joe Montana. LSU's QB just has to not be a liability, and whoever wins this job should do fine in that regard.

Verdict: When Perrilloux got kicked off the team, LSU fell a bit further in everybody's rankings...I saw them pretty consistently in the #8-11 range, and as a fan of a fellow Top 10 team, I was hoping those projections were correct. But this is still going to be a really, really good team. I can see a QB mistake or pass defense breakdown costing them a shot at the national title, but from week to week there's still no other West team this good.

Auburn (5-3)

Game-Changing Stats

Total Defense, Passing Downs.
Q1 Offense.
Passing Offense, close games.
Rushing Defense.

Top Ranks

#1: Defensive Q3 S&P+.
#1: Defensive Q3 S&P+, Rushing.
#3: Defensive Q1 S&P+, Passing.
#5: Defensive Close-Game S&P+, Passing.

Bottom Ranks

#109: Defensive Q4 S&P+, Rushing.
#104: Offensive 3rd Down S&P+, Passing.
#102: Offensive Q3 S&P+, Passing.
#100: Offensive Redzone S&P+, Passing.

Another fun split. They were the best rushing defense in the country in Q3...and one of the worst in Q4. In all, though, the Auburn defense was outstanding in 2007 (though, like LSU, they were prone to some Passing Down breakdowns), while the offense (passing offense in particular) held them back. So they lose their defensive coordinator to Texas and change up their offense to a more spread attack...what's the result of that? If you trust Phil Steele, then these changes mean great things for Auburn--he's picking them to win the West over LSU.

So if we assume that "This is Auburn--their defense will be just fine," let's get right to the major question: will the pass offense get better? Stationary target Brandon Cox just was seemingly around forever, but he just wasn't very good. Now with a spread offense and a QB (Kodi Burns) as suited to running as passing (he subbed in for a change of pace a lot in '07), the identity of the offense will change, and that might not be a bad thing...I'm not even sure they had an identity last year. And honestly, I think that'll help the passing game as much as anything. Burns might not be as good a pure passer as Cox, but the offense should very well suit his skills, and with decent receivers around him--the awesomely named Rodgeriqus Smith, Montez Billings, a couple of highly-touted sophomores in Chris Slaughter and Tim Hawthorne--things might click pretty well. However, with a young, run-first QB, staying out of Passing Downs will be key.

Summary: Phil Steele predicts two things from the Auburn defense: they'll be extremely young (he projects 4 sophomore starters, 6 junior starters, and only 1 senior), and they'll be extremely good. I think their young defense could cost them at some point, but it helps that the road conference slate (Miss. St., Vandy, Ole Miss, Alabama) is extremely manageable. I understand the hype for Auburn, and I think Auburn in general is always a bit too overshadowed compared to their SEC counterparts, but the young defense and the new offense are a bit too much for me to completely back them. But then again...

Verdict: ...their home-away split for the conference season rules. If they didn't play LSU so damn early in the season (September 20), while the growing pains are still in existence, I think they really could win the West. But they do, so...no.

Arkansas (4-4)

Game-Changing Stats

Rushing Offense, 1st Downs.
Total Offense, Non-Passing Downs.
Passing Offense.
Total Defense, close games.

Top Ranks

#3: Defensive 1st Down S&P+, Passing.
#3: Defensive 3rd Down S&P+, Passing.
#3: Offensive 1st Down S&P+, Passing.
#3: Offensive Non-Passing Down S&P+, Passing.

Bottom Ranks

#117: Offensive 2nd Down S&P+, Passing.
#91: Offensive Q1 Line Yards+.
#90: Defensive Q2 S&P+, Rushing.
#88: Offensive 3rd Down S&P+, Rushing.

These numbers are my favorite. How much did opponents gameplan for defending Darren McFadden and Felix Jones? Quite a bit, if you take "#3 in the country on 1st-down passing and Non-Passing Down passing" into account. Any time Arkansas wasn't in a Passing Down situation, their opponents assumed they'd be running. And when Arkansas tried to pass on 2nd downs (with it being much more likely that they were facing a passing down)...well...they dropped from #3 to #117.

Of course, it all changes in 2008. No Darren McFadden...no Felix Jones...hell, no Houston Nutt. The offense will be a) completely retooled and b) probably not very good. Jonathan Luigs and Mitch Petrus lead a solid O-Line, but they'll be blocking for super-young RBs (stud freshman De'Anthony Curtis is a possible starter) and...Casey Dick. So the question becomes this: will the defense be able to keep them in games if the offense is strugg-a-ling?

Signs point to no. The Hogs lost their six leading tacklers (five to graduation, one to being a violent idiot), and while Arkansas always has good athletes, the likely poor offense will put the defense in a lot of awkward situations.

Summary: Bobby Petrino succeeds wherever he goes, but he's really not going to have a lot to work with in 2008. Michigan transfer Ryan Mallett becomes available in 2009, and the young guys likely going through growing pains in '08 will be more experienced, so...

Verdict: Expect good things from Arkansas in 2009. And expect Bobby Petrino to be back in the NFL by 2010. Just kidding.

Mississippi State (4-4)

Game-Changing Stats

Total Defense, Non-Passing Downs.
Offensive Success Rates.
Q4 Defense.
Rushing Offense (including Line Yards).

Top Ranks

#3: Defensive Q1 Line Yards+.
#7: Defensive Q4 S&P+.
#9: Defensive Non-Passing Down S&P+.
#10: Defensive Non-Passing Down S&P+, Passing.

Bottom Ranks

#124: Offensive Q4 S&P+, Passing.
#123: Offensive Q2 S&P+.
#121: Offensive Q2 S&P+, Passing.
#119: Offensive Close-Game S&P+, Passing.

The Bulldogs were the poster boys for my 'leverage' idea. They shut offenses down on Non-Passing Downs, played great defense late...and managed to make a bowl game because of it, despite an absolutely horrendous passing offense. This was encapsulated by their Liberty Bowl win over UCF (what was the score in that game, Miss St 3, UCF -2?). They focused all their energies in leveraging UCF into Passing Downs and didn't even try to take a chance offensively. And it worked. It was a dangerous game to play--if the defense ever didn't play well, the offense really had no ability to bring them back into the game--but they pulled off a nice 2007 season. Can they improve in 2008?

The answer to that question, I think, starts with the defensive front seven. They were most instrumental in MSU's success despite not having any specific stars (LB Jamar Chaney is the only truly notable guy), and their success seems to derive as much from philosophy and execution as anything else. Led by LBs Chaney and Dominic Douglas and a super-experienced D-Line, this will again be a strength for MSU.

Despite that, you have to figure that the passing offense will need to improve in '08 to duplicate '07 success. They were playing with fire last year, and it worked, but they can't count on it working again. Wesley Carroll's no longer a freshman, so that will help...and leading receiver Jamayel Smith (the "leading" receiver despite catching only 33 passes) does as well, but...this unit's still limited. They'll probably improve simply because they really can't get much worse, but the improvement will only be marginal.

Summary: Mississippi State was a great story last year--Sylvester Croom's such a likeable guy, and it was great to see him succeed. That said...they'll be playing the same dangerous "don't screw up on offense, and hope your defense makes the big plays" game in 2008, and with road games against Georgia Tech, LSU, Tennessee, Alabama and a likely-much-improved Ole Miss, the margin for error here is certainly pretty small.

Verdict: I hope they succeed, I really do. But it's pretty damn hard to predict it.

Alabama (4-4)

Game-Changing Stats

Rushing Offense.
Offensive Points Per Play, close games.
Total Defense, Non-Passing Downs.
2nd Down Offense.

Top Ranks

#4: Defensive Q4 Line Yards+.
#14: Offensive Q4 S&P+.
#17: Offensive Q1 Line Yards+.
#20: Offensive 3rd Down S&P+, Rushing.

Bottom Ranks

#117: Offensive 3rd Down S&P+, Passing.
#111: Defensive Q3 S&P+, Passing.
#106: Offensive Redzone S&P+, Passing.
#105: Offensive Q3 S&P+, Rushing.

So 'Bama was horrendous in Q3 and pretty good in Q4...my "Q1/Q3 vs Q2/Q4" theory suggests, then, that the talent level was pretty high already last year. And they just added the #1 recruiting class in the country, so...I'm thinking the bar should be set pretty high for 2008, right?

Looking at the Game-Changing Stats, I'm going to say that the following two positions are most important for The Tide in '08: #1 RB, #1 WR. First, the RB. The O-line was pretty damn strong last year, and four of five starters return. So the onus falls on sophomore Terry Grant...or junior Roy Upchurch...or one of the incoming freshmen...whoever the starter is, will need to produce.

Next, the WR: a deep threat has to emerge. DJ Hall and Keith Brown were the only two 'Bama receivers last year to a) catch more than 10 passes and b) average more than 13 yards per reception. Even with them, overall Points Per Play was an issue. Guys like Mike McCoy and Terry Grant caught plenty of passes last year...but they averaged 7.4 and 6.8 yards per catch, respectively. That's hideous. Somebody has to be able to go deep, and it appears likely that that guy (if one exists) will be a newcomer. From Rivals.com:

4. Who will emerge at the wide receiver position?

When camp opens, a cast of veteran candidates and a trio of redshirt freshmen will try to show incomers Julio Jones and Burton Scott where their place in line is. None of those returning has shown potential to be a No.1 target, however, so playmakers of any age will find themselves in the forefront quickly. A major contribution from either Jones or Scott would make a huge difference, but finding more reliable options among those returning is equally important. It's safe to fit veteran Mike McCoy for playing time, but whether that's as a leading man or a supporting actor remains to be seen. It's also a now-or-never season for senior Nikita Stover.

Summary: I don't like John Parker Wilson very much at all, but if strong, reliable talent is around him, I think this team could threaten for the West division crown. But that's miles from being a given right now. We know Julio Jones was all-world in high school, but...is he going to be immediately ready for SEC play? He'll need to be. Alabama will be strong in the trenches, and their overall defense should be decent despite the losses of DE Wallace Gilberry and LB Darren Mustin, and CB Simeon Castille, but you need to be able to score some easy points, and Alabama didn't have that ability last year.

Verdict: I want to take a risk and put them at the top of the West, but that would be under the assumption that a true freshman WR takes over and dominates...and I can't make that assumption, not with how strong LSU and Auburn look. So I'm chickening out and sticking them in the #3 slot like everybody else.

Ole Miss (0-8)

Game-Changing Stats

Passing Offense, Q4.
Total Defense, close games.
2nd Down Offense.
Rushing Defense.

Top Ranks

#8: Offensive Q2 Line Yards+.
#17: Offensive Non-Passing Down Line Yards+.
#18: Offensive Line Yards+.
#18: Offensive Q1 Line Yards+.

Bottom Ranks

#125: Defensive 2nd Down S&P+, Rushing.
#124: Defensive Q4 S&P+, Rushing.
#124: Defensive Q4 S&P+.
#121: Defensive 2nd Down Line Yards+.

They were good at one thing--run blocking--and #100 or worse in 33 categories overall...33 more than LSU. They seem to have always had some decent size and raw athleticism under Ed Orgeron, but...Orgeron was not ready for prime time. So now Houston Nutt, who proved at Arkansas that he could take raw athleticism and create something decent out of it, steps in. He inherits a strong O-line, a strong D-line, a highly-touted transfer in QB Jevan Snead, a potential sleeper star in WR Mike Wallace, and all sorts of potential in the LB corps and secondary.

Summary: Nutt hit the ground running at Arkansas, winning 17 games in his first two seasons in Fayetteville (Arkansas had won only 8 the previous two years). A quick turnaround is possible here too, though road games against Wake Forest, Florida, Alabama, Arkansas, and LSU will likely only make for a limited turnaround in year one.

Verdict: Shreveport or bust for the Right Reverend Nutt. Ole Miss is in much better shape as a program now than they were about eight months ago, but the schedule's too tough to expect too much in Year One.

BALANCE OF POWER

LSU
Auburn
Alabama
Ole Miss
Mississippi State
Arkansas

SCHEDULE

Okay, so we've got our SEC power structure. What does the schedule have to say about things?

East Division

Georgia

Likely wins (8): Georgia Southern, Central Michigan, @ South Carolina, Alabama, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, @ Kentucky, Georgia Tech

Likely losses: none

Tossups (4): @ Arizona State, @ LSU, vs Florida, @ Auburn

Prediction: Beat Arizona State, Florida. Lose to LSU, Auburn (that one just screams 'upset'). 10-2 (6-2).

Florida

Likely wins (8): Hawaii, Miami-FL, Ole Miss, @ Arkansas, Kentucky, @ Vanderbilt, South Carolina, The Citadel

Likely losses: none

Tossups (4): @ Tennessee, LSU, vs Georgia, @ Florida State

Prediction: Beat LSU, FSU. Lose to Georgia, Tennessee (upset!). 10-2 (6-2).

Tennessee

Likely wins (5): UAB, Northern Illinois, Mississippi State, Wyoming, Kentucky

Likely losses (2): @ Auburn, @ Georgia

Tossups (5): @ UCLA, Florida, Alabama, @ South Carolina, @ Vanderbilt

Prediction: Upset Florida, beat Alabama and Vanderbilt. Lose to UCLA, SC. 8-4 (5-3).

South Carolina

Likely wins (4): NC State, Wofford, UAB, Arkansas

Likely losses (3): Georgia, @ Florida, @ Clemson

Tossups (5): @ Vanderbilt, LSU, @ Ole Miss, @ Kentucky, Tennessee

Prediction: Beat Vandy, Kentucky, Tennessee. Lose to Ole Miss, LSU (though I came really close to picking the upset here). 7-5 (4-4).

Kentucky

Likely wins (4): Norfolk State, Middle Tennessee, W'ern Kentucky, Arkansas

Likely losses (4): @ Alabama, @ Florida, Georgia, @ Tennessee

Tossups (4): @ Louisville, South Carolina, @ Mississippi State, Vanderbilt

Prediction: Beat Vandy, lose the other tossups. 5-7 (2-6).

Vanderbilt

Likely wins (2): Rice, Duke

Likely losses (6): @ Ole Miss, Auburn, @ Mississippi State, @ Georgia, Florida, @ Wake Forest

Tossups (4): @ Miami-OH, South Carolina, @ Kentucky, Tennessee

Prediction: As always, Vandy has to win all the tossups to have a chance at 6-6. Only...they won't even come close. Beat Miami-OH, lose the rest. 3-9 (0-8).

West Division

LSU

Likely wins (8): Appalachian State, Troy, North Texas, Mississippi State, Tulane, Alabama, Ole Miss, @ Arkansas.

Likely losses: none

Tossups (4): @ Auburn, @ Florida, @ South Carolina, Georgia

Prediction: Lose to Florida, win the other tossups. 11-1 (7-1).

Auburn

Likely wins (7): UL-Monroe, Southern Miss, @ Mississippi State, Tennessee, @ Vanderbilt, Arkansas, UT-Martin

Likely losses: none

Tossups (5): LSU, @ West Virginia, @ Ole Miss, Georgia, @ Alabama

Prediction: Lose to LSU, WV. Beat Ole Miss. Upset Georgia. Keep the win streak alive against Alabama (never bet against a streak!). 10-2 (7-1).

Alabama

Likely wins (7): Tulane, Western Kentucky, @ Arkansas, Kentucky, Ole Miss, Arkansas State, Mississippi State

Likely losses (3): @ Georgia, @ Tennessee, @ LSU

Tossups (2): vs Clemson, @ Auburn

Prediction: Lose the tossups...barely. Actually, no. Beat Clemson (upset!), lose to Auburn. 8-4 (4-4).

Ole Miss

Likely wins (4): Memphis, Samford, Vanderbilt, UL-Monroe

Likely losses (3): @ Florida, @ Alabama, @ LSU

Tossups (5): @ Wake Forest, South Carolina, @ Arkansas, Auburn, Mississippi State

Prediction: Upset Wake, SC. Beat up on Arkansas (Nutt's former team). Beat MSU. Lose to Auburn. 8-4 (4-4).

Mississippi State

Likely wins (5): @ Louisiana Tech, SE Louisiana, Vanderbilt, Middle Tennessee, Arkansas

Likely losses (4): Auburn, @ LSU, @ Tennessee, @ Alabama

Tossups (3): @ Georgia Tech, Kentucky, @ Ole Miss

Prediction: Lose to Ole Miss, beat Kentucky, beat Georgia Tech (can you tell I don't think much of the ACC?). 7-5 (3-5).

Arkansas

Likely wins (2): Western Illinois, UL-Monroe

Likely losses (8): @ Texas, Alabama, Florida, @ Auburn, @ Kentucky, @ South Carolina, @ Mississippi State, LSU

Tossups (2): Ole Miss, Tulsa

Prediction: Ouch. I have enough faith in Petrino to say that they'll beat Tulsa...barely. 3-9 (0-8).

FINAL STANDINGS

East

Georgia (6-2)
Florida (6-2)
Tennessee (5-3)
South Carolina (4-4)
Kentucky (2-6)
Vanderbilt (0-8)

West

LSU (7-1)
Auburn (7-1)
Alabama (4-4)
Ole Miss (4-4)
Mississippi State (3-5)
Arkansas (0-8)

SEC Championship

Georgia > LSU

Bowls

Sugar Bowl: Georgia (11-2)
Orange Bowl: Florida (10-2)
Capital One Bowl: LSU (11-2)
Outback Bowl: Auburn (10-2)
Cotton Bowl: Tennessee (8-4)
Chick-Fil-A Bowl: Alabama (8-4)
Music City Bowl: Ole Miss (8-4)
Independence Bowl: South Carolina (7-5)
Papajohns.com Bowl: Mississippi State (7-5)

Beyond the Box Score: SEC edition (Part One)

2008-08-03T15:12:00Z

So at my current rate over at Rock M Nation, I'll be sick of writing about the Big 12 by about Week Three of the season. I mean...how many words have I written about the Ne-----a defense at this point? 7,000? 8,000? And Ron Prince's JUCOs? 2,000? I've still got a few more BTBS previews of Big 12 teams to write there, but as I get the chance over the last month of the offseason, I'm going to branch out a bit and write about other conferences. And naturally we'll start with the OMG, greatest, fastest, most talented, most awesomely amazing conference known to man, the SEC.

Now, I'm calling this a "Beyond the Box Score" preview, but I'm going to make it as non-number friendly as possible. I'm going to use some BTBS concepts to set up the team previews, but the rest will be more standard analysis. And hopefully that will make you want to learn the BTBS concepts. Yeah, that's the ticket!

Here's what we're going to do: I'm going to address each team's four main "Game-Changing Stats" emerging from their WinCorr's (I didn't figure anybody would care if I didn't list out the top 20 statistical categories as I've been doing recently...correct me if I'm wrong). Then I'll look at their national '+' rankings and list their best and worst categories.

So let's get started. I'll list teams in order of where they finished last year, I'll determine a 'balance of power' for each division, and then I'll look at the schedules. East Division in Part One, West Division and schedules in Part Two.

(And one last note: I removed all 'pressure situation' categories from the list, as...well...pressure situations are important for everybody...we don't need stats to figure that one out...)

East Division

Tennessee (6-2)

Game-Changing Stats (i.e. stats with the highest impact on the team's W/L's, and what they mean for 2008)

Pass Defense, close games.
Q2 Defense.
Rushing Offense, Non-Passing Downs.
Q2 Offense.

Top Ranks

#11: Offensive Q4 Line Yards+.
#11: Offensive Q2 S&P+.
#12: Offensive Q2 S&P+, Passing.
#13: Defensive 2nd Down S&P+, Rushing.

Bottom Ranks

#117: Offensive 3rd Down Line Yards+.
#105: Offensive Q4 S&P+.
#102: Offensive Q4 S&P+, Passing.
#102: Offensive Q2 Line Yards+.

Remember how the Vols won the East last year instead of Florida or Georgia? Remember that?

I've expressed my theory (and that's all it is right now--a theory...postulate, even) in the past that, in general, teams are either 1st and 3rd quarter teams or 2nd and 4th quarter teams. The 1st/3rd's are generally teams who derive advantages from gameplanning and adjustments. The 2nd/4th's are the teams with talent and athleticism that overcome you once the gameplanning is exhausted. It's a relatively viable theory, I think, but UT blows that for now. You see, Tennessee's best quarters were Q2 and Q4. Their worst quarters were...Q2 and Q4 Their passing game found a rhythm in Q2, while their run blocking ground to a halt. Then, in Q4 the opposite happened...the run blocking in Q4 was top-notch, while the passing game faltered. How does this happen? And more importantly...what does it mean? Not totally sure.

All I know is this: their secondary returns intact, and though some new blood might not be a bad thing considering the occasional shakiness last year, I'll say this is a good thing.

Also tied to wins and losses: the rushing game. Let's see: a) the line appears to have blocked better as the game wore on, b) Arian Foster returns, and c) Phil Steele calls UT's OL the best in the SEC. Another good thing.

So now they just have to get this whole "Q2" thing figured out. They lose 18-year starting QB Erik Ainge, so that's bad, but if Q2 really is a "talent" quarter, former stud recruit Jonathan Crompton should lead the offense relatively well.

Summary: I'm pretty torn on this team. These numbers suggest that Tennessee should be as good or better at the things that where most important to them last year, and that could spell success. Only, the teams around them possibly improved more.

I always thought Erik Ainge was rather overrated, so I don't feel that replacing him will be completely murderous. The running game should click along pretty well as long as Crompton isn't a total liability in the passing game, and the defense isn't the best in the conference, but I think their success will come down to what's more important: the positive impact of getting better in the secondary, or the negative impact of getting worse on the D-Line. For now we'll say the offense is better, the defense the same.

Verdict: Tennessee could be a bit better than what most are assuming (then again, SMQ and others have them in the Top 20, so maybe i'm just making it up that nobody likes them). If they slip in the SEC East, it's because...well, they play in the SEC East, and Georgia, Florida, and South Carolina should all improve quite a bit in '08.

Georgia (6-2)

Game-Changing Stats

Total Offense, close games.
Q1 Defense.
Rushing Defense.
Passing Offense.

Top Ranks

#2: Defensive Q3 Line Yards+.
#5: Offensive Redzone S&P+, Passing.
#5: Defensive Q3 S&P+.
#6: Defensive Redzone S&P+, Passing.

Bottom Ranks

#119: Defensive Q2 Line Yards+.
#117: Defensive Q4 Line Yards+.
#113: Defensive 2nd Down Line Yards+.
#113: Offensive Q4 Line Yards+.

The Line Yards+ rankings are simply fascinating to me. Tennessee and Georgia (and others) were fantastic at run-blocking/stopping the run in some quarters and quite bad in others. For UGA, there was nobody better at stopping the run in the "talent" quarters (Q2, Q4), but they were pretty lacking on D in Q3. I think the Q1/Q3 vs Q2/Q4 thing is worthy of its own post in the future, but...well, I have to finish this post first.

What I also find interesting here is...not only were they great defensively in Q2 and Q4 and pretty poor in Q3...but that also left Q1 Defense as one of the "game-changing" stats. If they could keep you off the scoreboard early, before settling in in Q2, you were toast. You seemingly had to jump on the Bulldogs early to have a chance.

Okay, so obviously UGA's defense set the tone for UGA games--what does that mean for 2008? Well, they lose top sack man Marcus Howard and DB stalwarts Kelin Johnson and Thomas Flowers...and return everybody else. If they thrived in the "talent" quarters last year, they should thrive even more this year.

In 2007, the offense just had to take advantage of gift-wrapped opportunities and put together a couple other decent drives, and they were going to be successful. Matt Stafford's numbers were far from amazing, but they were certainly good enough with the defense he had working for him. I'm extremely far from an "It's Knowshon Moreno's Heisman to lose this year" guy--he did have Thomas White taking a lot of key carries last year, and you never know how a guy's going to react the first year his name is on the marquee. But while he could be ready for a Heisman push, he certainly won't have to be for UGA to be strong in '08. His backups are as highly-touted as ever, and the UGA offense should click along at least on the level of last year.

Summary: The conventional wisdom on Georgia is that they were an underachieving team until Mark Richt had them dance in the endzone in Jacksonville...and then poof, the switch flipped and Georgia was the best team in the country. Was it really that simple?

It was exactly that simple offensively. Before the Florida game, their average Offensive S&P+ number was 105.6; after, it was 135.6 (remember: anything over 100 on the '+' scale is good, anything over 150 is top-tier). Defensively, they averaged only a 98.4 Defensive S&P+ before Florida, and then a 87.9 after. So their identity changed more than their overall quality--they became an Offense First team (meanwhile, their overall defensive numbers were lower than you or I would have assumed...guess that Q3 lull really hurt them).

Is their offensive surge sustainable? Initial thoughts are...yes! Matt Stafford! Knowshon Moreno! Brilliant! And those initial thoughts are probably relatively correct; I just have one concern: their biggest improvement on offense came on passing downs (their Passing Down S&P+ went from 100.0 pre-Florida to 175.7 during-and-post-Florida). This improvement came at a time when they started rushing the ball more overall, meaning the entire offensive philosophy changed. Moreno (and White) carried the load (not necessarily doing much more with their carries--just getting many more carries), and when Matthew Stafford had to make a play on a 2nd-and-9 or 3rd-and-6, he did just that.

I mentioned before that, while I don't have trend data yet, I'm concerned that teams with strangely high Passing Down success one year will have trouble duplicating it the next. This concern, however, does not give me enough ammo to buck conventional wisdom. With the talent returning here, I can't not make Georgia one of my top teams in the country.

Verdict: This team is Top 5-6 caliber without a doubt, and maybe Top 1-2, but it comes with a caveat--their offense may not be as good as we all assume. They may not be able to bail themselves out on Passing Downs as well, and if they don't, the pressure will be on the defense to produce even more than it did in '07.

Florida (5-3)

Game-Changing Stats

Rushing Offense, redzone.
Total Offense, close games.
Total Defense, Non-Passing Downs.
Passing Offense, close games.

Top Ranks

#1: Offensive S&P+, Rushing.
#1: Offensive 1st Down S&P+, 2nd Down S&P+, 3rd Down S&P+, Non-Passing Down S&P+.
#1: Offensive Redzone S&P+, Rushing.
#1: Offensive Q1 S&P+, Q2 S&P+

Bottom Ranks

#118: Defensive Passing Down S&P+.
#110: Defensive 2nd Down S&P+, Passing.
#104: Defensive Close-Game S&P+, Passing.
#103: Defensive Q2 S&P+, Passing.

In total, they were #1 in 22 offensive categories and 1 defensive category (Defensive 2nd Down Line Yards+)...and pretty damn low-ranked in almost every pass defense category.

For 2008, they've lost next to nothing in the WR corps, have added a (for now) healthier, bigger Percy Harvin*, and they return all their key rushers while adding Emmanuel Moody. Yikes. Add to this Urban Meyer's coaching prowess, and this is pretty clearly (to me) the best offense in the country.

* Am I the only one a bit alarmed by just how much weight Harvin has (supposedly) gained in one offseason? I don't mean this in a "cough cough steroids cough cough" way, but in a "how in the hell does he not lose at least some of his agility?" way. I mean, it might be worth it to lose a little agility if it means he's healthy all year, but...does it even mean that? Stacking on a ton of muscle quickly isn't always known to lead immediately to fewer injuries.

Defensively? I guess the question is, how much can a defense improve in one year? Just about everybody on the Florida Defense was highly-touted on the recruiting end, they're all super-athletic, and just about everybody returns for '08. The D-Line does have to replace Derrick Harvey, their leader sacker, but they replace him with a variety of highly-touted recruits like sophomore Carlos Dunlap or freshman William Green or RSFr Jaye Howard. They should be fine there. Maybe not better, but fine. Sophomores and juniors now litter the secondary, and I think all the prognosticators picking UF #1 are just assuming that they'll get their act together at some point. But they were soooooo bad defending the pass for much of 2007. It's hard to ignore that.

Summary: Florida was just about the worst team in the country at having Passing Down breakdowns in '07, and that will almost certainly improve in '08; however, the pass rush might not be any better, so the pressure will be on all those '07 frosh and sophs to develop on the job. They will, but it might not be enough to dodge all the landmines on the schedule. Then again, with the #1 offense in the country in their back pocket, they don't have to improve much. So if the offense and defense both improve just incrementally...well...yikes.

Verdict: Unbelievable offense, improved-but-maybe-not-enough-to-win-a-national-title defense, decent slate for an SEC slate (they leave the state all of three times, and two of those trips are to Arkansas and Vanderbilt), great coach...like I said about Georgia, this is clearly a Top 5-6 team, but they have an Achilles Heel in that their pass defense just has so far to go. They could be the most improved defense in the country, but...until they actually prove that, it's going to hold them back a spot or two in my mind.

Kentucky (3-5)

Game-Changing Stats

Passing Offense, Non-Passing Downs.
Total Offense, Non-Passing Downs.
Rushing Offense (particularly in Q3).
2nd Down Defense.

Top Ranks

#2: Offensive Line Yards+, close games.
#4: Offensive Q3 S&P+.
#5: Offensive Q3 S&P+, passing.
#6: Offensive Passing-Down S&P+.

Bottom Ranks

#116: Defensive 3rd-Down S&P+.
#115: Defensive Q4 S&P+, Rushing.
#111: Defensive Q2 S&P+.
#110: Defensive 3rd-Down S&P+, Rushing.

Andre Woodson was a hit-or-miss magician in 2007. One moment, he was cutting a coin out of his arm (beating LSU in OT), the next he was accidentally breaking car windows (waiting way too damn long to make a decision in OT against Tennessee). But even with all the good magic tricks, UK only went 3-5 in conference. And now they're starting from scratch from a leadership perspective.

So...looking at their Game-Changing Stats, I'm pretty sure we can say that the Passing Game is going to suffer, what with the QB situation in disarray and the receiving corps losing four of its top five targets. The RB corps is strong, and the OL is decent, but with a potentially disastrous passing game, it's hard to predict great things from the offense. Meanwhile, the defense should be better across the board, but if they still struggle with 3rd down breakdowns, then they've pretty much got no major chance of competing in '08.

Summary: Rich Brooks has their program on a much healthier trajectory than it was on before he got here, and I didn't have a problem with him having enough pull to name his own successor. But this year is going to be a step backwards; there's just no way around it.

Verdict: Chances are this season will look more like Rich Brooks' first three years (average wins: 3) than his last two (average wins: 8). But they've got a couple good RBs!

South Carolina (3-5)

Game-Changing Stats

Rushing Offense (particularly line yards).
Q1 Passing Defense.
Rushing Offense (Non-Passing Downs).
Total Defense.

Top Ranks

#5: Defensive 1st Down S&P+, Passing.
#9: Defensive Non-Passing Down S&P+, Passing.
#11: Defensive Passing EqPts+.
#11: Offensive Passing EqPts+.

Bottom Ranks

#122*: Defensive 2nd Down Line Yards+.
#118: Defensive Redzone S&P+, Rushing.
#116: Defensive Q3 Line Yards+.
#110: Defensive Q2 S&P+, Rushing.

* Now's a good time to mention that these rankings are based on 126 teams: the 120 D1 teams and the 6 ''generic' 1-AA teams (separated into Tiers 1-6, based on record). I probably should have mentioned this earlier, actually, but oh well.

Great passing defense in 2007...bad, bad, bad rushing defense. Solid passing offense despite the lack of a solid #1 QB. Despite these two things, what was most likely to swing a South Carolina game last year? The rushing offense. If the O-line was knocking people over, SC was doing pretty well. And you don't need BTBS numbers to see that--their game-to-game stats show that they were 5-2 when rushing for over 100 yards (which, let's face it, is not a grandiose total)...and 1-4 when not reaching that benchmark.

So will the rushing game improve in 2008? Well, the O-line returns 8 players from it's 10-man 2-deep, so that's a good thing...and senior Mike Davis could be ready to carry the load--at least to the tune of hitting 100 yards more often than not--so that bodes well.

Summary: They have a higher ceiling at QB if RSFr Stephen Garcia is involved, but he's been busy getting into trouble just like UK's Curtis Pulley, so we'll see. Either way, incremental improvement throughout the offense is likely, and hey...Phil Steele says "I think SC will have one of the most improved rush defenses in the country", so who am I to question that? SC should take a step forward in '08, but not a huge one.

Verdict: Steve Spurrier is being tripped up at South Carolina by the same thing that nailed him with the Washington Redskins--he's only as good a coach as the athletes around him. He got the best of the best at Florida, and they were unbeatable for long stretches of his tenure there. He went to the Redskins, didn't have the best athletes anymore, and found that his Playstation style didn't work quite as well. Now at SC, he hasn't had many recruiting breakthroughs, and until he does, SC will only be a solid team, not a great one. The competition is too fierce.

Vanderbilt (2-6)

Game-Changing Stats

Q1 Offense.
Rushing Defense (particularly line yards).
Q1 Defense.
Total Defense, close games.

Top Ranks

#4: Defensive Q4 S&P+, Passing.
#10: Defensive Q4, S&P+.
#14: Defensive 2nd Down S&P+, Passing.
#18: Offensive 2nd Down S&P+, Passing.

Bottom Ranks

#123: Offensive Q2 Line Yards+.
#119: Offensive 2nd Down S&P+, Rushing.
#118: Offensive 2nd Down Line Yards+.
#115: Defensive Redzone S&P+, Passing.

On first blush, I think it's pretty easy to explain why Q1 was so important to Vanderbilt: because sometimes the game was somewhat out of reach by the end of the quarter.

I realize Vanderbilt is just seen as the Baylor of the SEC, and while that's more or less true in overall results, 2007's Vandy team was far more competitive than their counterparts in Waco. Of their 7 losses, 5 were by 14 points or less, including a 3-point home loss to Georgia and a 1-point road loss to Tennessee. Bobby Johnson has built a competitive program in Nashville--the question is just, can he ever actually get the talent in place to win more than 4-5 games? The talent gap in the SEC East* is just too wide right now.

And here's a sad inconvenience for Vandy: they actually shouldn't even be in the SEC East--Auburn is further east than Nashville, and Tuscaloosa is just about equally east...only you can't break up Auburn and Alabama (then again, you could just stick them in different divisions but still have them play every year--SEC schedule makers have no trouble doing weird things like that), so Vandy got stuck in the division in which they can never really compete. Poor smart kids...

So anyway, the talent gap. Vandy came close to two major upsets last year (UGA, UT), which would have made them 7-5 and been a major statement overall. They appeared close to turning the corner...and now they have to replace 8 offensive starters in 2008, including stud WR Earl Bennett (75 catches in '07), leading rusher Cassen Jackson-Garrison...oh yeah, and the entire starting OL. Two experienced QBs--Mackenzi Adams and Chris Nickson--return, but...they'll be protected by an entirely new OL and won't have the bailout option of Bennett. Ouch.

Defensively, things are a bit more encouraging. Looking at the rankings, it's pretty easy to see why the rushing defense was such a big variable on Vandy's wins/losses as well--because their pass defense was pretty damn solid. And the longer they were able to keep the game close, the better their pass defense appeared to play. DJ Moore is an absolute stud at CB (he's also a good kick returner), and the rest of the secondary returns as well. However...the entire starting DL has to be replaced, along with all-conference LB Jonathan Goff.

Summary: It kind of appears that Bobby Johnson was building toward the 2007 season. A lot of experience and talent came to the forefront for Vandy last season...and now they're all gone. If Johnson is going to break through with the Commodores, it's going to be with a new batch of players...and it's almost certainly not going to be in 2008.

Verdict: I like Bobby Johnson, but 2008 is not his year. Not sure his year will ever come.

BALANCE OF POWER

Okay, so after this discusssion, how do I see the balance of power in the East for 2008?

Georgia
Florida
Tennessee
South Carolina
Kentucky
Vanderbilt

These aren't my predictions, mind you...those will come at the end of Part Two when we look at the schedule. Stay tuned.

The Coaches Poll

2008-08-01T19:01:43Z

	Team (first-place votes)	Record	Points	Final 2007 rankings
1.	Georgia (22)	11-2	1,438	3
2.	Southern California (14)	11-2	1,430	2
3.	Ohio State (14)	11-2	1,392	4
4.	Oklahoma (3)	11-3	1,329	8
5.	Florida (5)	9-4	1,293	16
6.	LSU (3)	12-2	1,163	1
7.	Missouri	12-2	1,143	5
8.	West Virginia	11-2	1,008	6
9.	Clemson	9-4	999	22
10.	Texas	10-3	979	10
11.	Auburn	9-4	888	14t
12.	Wisconsin	9-4	747	21
13.	Kansas	12-1	714	7
14.	Texas Tech	9-4	644	23
15.	Virginia Tech	11-3	568	9
16.	Arizona State	10-3	560	13
17.	Brigham Young	11-2	547	14t
18.	Tennessee	10-4	506	12
19.	Illinois	9-4	422	18
20.	Oregon	9-4	399	24
21.	South Florida	9-4	350	NR
22.	Penn State	9-4	313	25
23.	Wake Forest	9-4	203	NR
24.	Michigan	9-4	112	19
25.	Fresno State	9-4	91	NR

Others receiving votes
Alabama (7-6) 83; South Carolina (6-6) 64; Utah (9-4) 60; Florida State (7-6) 53; Rutgers (8-5) 53; Boston College (11-3) 47; California (7-6) 41; Pittsburgh (5-7) 34; Boise State (10-3) 25; Oregon State (9-4) 23; Nebraska (5-7) 17; Cincinnati (10-3) 13; Virginia (9-4) 12; Connecticut (9-4) 9; Michigan State (7-6) 9; Mississippi State (8-5) 6; Kentucky (8-5) 5; Notre Dame (3-9) 5; TCU (8-5) 5; Maryland (6-7) 4; North Carolina (4-8) 3; Texas A&M (7-6) 3; UCLA (6-7) 3; Central Florida (10-4) 2; Georgia Tech (7-6) 2; Louisville (6-6) 2; Arizona (5-7) 1; Colorado (6-7) 1; Oklahoma State (7-6) 1; Tulsa (10-4) 1.

The USA TODAY Board of Coaches is made up of 61 head coaches at Division I-A institutions. All are members of the American Football Coaches Association. This season's board: Frank Beamer, Virginia Tech; Mike Bellotti, Oregon; Bret Bielema, Wisconsin; Bobby Bowden, Florida State; Tommy Bowden, Clemson; Art Briles, Baylor; Mack Brown, Texas; Neil Callaway, Alabama-Birmingham; Gene Chizik, Iowa State; Mario Cristobal, Florida International; Sylvester Croom, Mississippi State; Mark Dantonio, Michigan State; Butch Davis, North Carolina; Todd Dodge, North Texas; Randy Edsall, Connecticut; Phillip Fulmer, Tennessee; Jeff Genyk, Eastern Michigan; Turner Gill, Buffalo; Joe Glenn, Wyoming; Todd Graham, Tulsa; Jim Grobe, Wake Forest; Dan Hawkins, Colorado; Pat Hill, Fresno State; Butch Jones, Central Michigan; Steve Kragthorpe, Louisville; Mike Leach, Texas Tech; Jim Leavitt, South Florida; Rocky Long, New Mexico; Bill Lynch, Indiana; Doug Martin, Kent State; Urban Meyer, Florida; Les Miles, LSU; Shane Montgomery, Miami (Ohio); Hal Mumme, New Mexico State; Rick Neuheisel, UCLA; Tom O'Brien, North Carolina State; George O'Leary, Central Florida; Gary Patterson, TCU; Bo Pelini, Nebraska; Chris Petersen, Boise State; Gary Pinkel, Missouri; Mike Price, Texas-El Paso; Mark Richt, Georgia; Mike Riley, Oregon State; Rich Rodriguez, Michigan; Greg Schiano, Rutgers; Howard Schnellenberger, Florida Atlantic; Mark Snyder, Marshall; Frank Solich, Ohio; Steve Spurrier, South Carolina; Rick Stockstill, Middle Tennessee; Jeff Tedford, California; Joe Tiller, Purdue; Bob Toledo, Tulane; Dick Tomey, San Jose State; Jim Tressel, Ohio State; Tommy Tuberville, Auburn; Charlie Weis, Notre Dame; Kyle Whittingham, Utah; Tyrone Willingham, Washington; Ron Zook, Illinois. The AFCA prohibits coaches from voting for schools on major NCAA probation.

Who's the Man: Stafford vs. Tebow

2008-07-31T19:17:04Z

I wanted to start a new segment in my blog posts that will run throughout the year during the off-season as well as in-season. The "Who's the Man?" segment will pit two of college football's most elite players (usually who play the same position), and give you the fan the opportunity to vote for your favorite out of the two choices.

First of all I'd like to apologize to the Georgia faithful fans out there who thought they were jipped when I didn't put Matt Stafford on my list of top ten returning quarterbacks. You guys are part of the reason I posted this poll.

In this edition of Who's the Man, I'd like to examine who the better quarterback is, Matt Stafford of the Georgia Bulldogs, or Tim Tebow of the Florida Gators.

Let me know your opinion in the comment section.

College Football Question: Saturday Night Football

2008-07-27T21:35:08Z

Saturday Night Football is fast becoming one of the biggest events in the world of sports. It has become an event where some of the best and biggest universities in the United States can showcase their school and their team. Below I have posted the 12 prime time games that will occur on Saturday Night this fall:

August 30: Michigan State at California (split-national)
August 30: Alabama vs. Clemson at Georgia Dome, Atlanta (split-national)
September 13: Ohio State at Southern California
September 20: Georgia at Arizona State
September 27: Illinois at Penn State (May be optioned to ESPN or ESPN2)
October 4: Ohio State at Wisconsin (May be optioned to ESPN or ESPN2)
October 4: Oregon at Southern California (May be optioned to ESPN or ESPN2)
October 25: Penn State at Ohio State (May be optioned to ESPN or ESPN2)
October 25: Notre Dame at Washington (May be optioned to ESPN or ESPN2)
November 8: California at Southern California
November 29: Oklahoma at Oklahoma State (May be optioned to earlier start time) (split-national)
November 29: Notre Dame at Southern California (May be optioned to ESPN or ESPN2) (split-national)

The Big 12 Championship game takes place the following week on December 6th. Out of all of those games, which is the most exciting/the game that you are most likely to watch?

A Tale of Two Cities (or something like that)

2008-07-26T08:17:16Z

I have a confession to make. Well, not really so much a confession as a lament. You see, I have the misfortune of being a fan of both the Southern Miss Golden Eagles and the New York Mets. That’s the sports equivalent of continuously punching yourself in the nuts year-round. While these two athletic entities may seem worlds apart: professional franchise in America’s biggest metropolis vs. college program in the moderately-urbanized Deep South, they actually have a lot in common—painfully. Both are forever seen as "the other team" in town, figuratively for Southern Miss and literally for the Mets, historically living in the shadows of the two SEC schools in north Mississippi and the almighty Yankees, respectively. Both the Golden Eagles and the Mets have a history of almost manic behavior, treating fans to both the highest of highs and also the lowest of lows.

The Mets had the miracle of 1969 and a decent run into the early ‘70s only to fall to horrific depths in the early ‘80s. They rebounded in the mid-80s, building a contender that peaked with a dominating regular season and near-miraculous World Series title in 1986 and what appeared to all to be a budding dynasty. After an injury-plagued year in ’87 came absolute domination of the National League in 1988, but that was derailed in the playoffs by a heavy underdog led by Orel Hershiser and Kirk Gibson: a Dodger team the Mets had handled 10 out of 11 times in the regular season. From there, the Mets became the Dynasty That Never Was, suffering through the early '90s with a futility only matched by the franchise’s early days as an expansion team.

Southern Miss has similarly had its moments of greatness during the modern era of college football: a 30-14 beatdown of Archie Manning’s #4 Ole Miss in 1970, a run into the Top 10 in 1981, a stunning 38-29 handling of Alabama in 1982 to end Bear Bryant’s 57-game home winning streak, a season-opening upending of #6 Florida State Seminoles in 1989, and an "Alabama State Championship" in 1990 with victories at both Alabama and Auburn, to name a few. As with the Mets though, the "dynasty" never manages to come together as the team invariably stumbles at the hands of an underdog in devastating fashion. The 1970 team finished 5-6 while dropping games to the likes of West Texas A&M and even losing its own Homecoming. A 3-point loss to Louisville in Game 10 killed the then-8-0-1 1981 team’s shot at the Sugar Bowl. The week after scoring those 38 points in Tuscaloosa, the ’82 team only managed 6 vs. Louisiana Tech in a losing effort in its home finale. The 1989 team lost to an unranked Mississippi State the week after shaking the earth in Tallahassee. A head-scratching loss to North Carolina State in the 1990 All-American Bowl dropped that team out of the national rankings heading into the off-season. Perhaps the worst loss of them all, though, was in 2000, when a Southern Miss team that had only lost 2 league games in the first 4 seasons of the newfangled Conference USA stood on the very edge of the Top 10 and perhaps permanent national significance after two Top 20 finishes in the previous 3 years, a nail-biting 3-point loss to Tennessee, a 21-0 thumping of Alabama, a 28-6 win over Oklahoma State, and 4 conference wins to start the year. Poised for a breakthrough before a full house ready to burst, the Eagles were blitzkrieged at their own homecoming by Louisville to the tune of 49-28. Honestly, as SMQ has alluded to previously, the program never fully recovered from that day.

The similarities between the Mets and Southern Miss don’t stop there, though. Take a look at the last two men chosen to lead their respective charges: Willie Randolph and Jeff Bower. Bower, as anyone who finds themselves reading this should already know, was the home-town kid made good. A prolific quarterback at Southern Miss during the early-to-mid '70s who later married the homecoming queen and had a stint as an assistant coach thereafter, Bower was hired as the Sothern Miss head coach in 1990 (just prior to the aforementioned All-American Bowl). The Mets made a similar move prior to their 2005 season, hiring Willie Randolph as their manager. Randolph was a Brooklyn native and actually grew up a Mets fan prior to eventually finishing his playing career with them. Both men were cheered by fans and media hoping for a storybook ending. Both also had promising spikes of success, Randolph’s 2006 squad won the National League East for the franchise’s first half-pennant in 18 years, and Bower’s aforementioned late ‘90s teams were arguably the best stretch of football season-for-season in school history.

However, both coaches also had their hard times. While the Louisville loss was the most devastating, Bower’s teams upheld the unfortunate Southern Miss tradition of tripping up at the most inopportune times. A season finale loss to a rather pedestrian Houston in 1996 cost the Eagles—ranked at the time--the first out-right CUSA championship, with the Cougars taking the tie-breaker and Liberty Bowl bid. How big was the loss? The Liberty Bowl felt so gypped it changed the rules for picking the conference representative and eliminated the tie-breaker the next season, thus allowing the bowl to pick its preferred co-champion should the situation ever arise again. Eight years later, a ranked (yet otherwise lifeless) Southern Miss managed to get throttled 52-24 at home by a Cincinnati team that had just earlier lost to Army, providing relief for the Black Knights 19-game losing streak. Similarly, Randolph’s Mets made their case for baseball infamy in 2007, losing in uglier and more original ways the entire month of September en route to blowing a 7-game lead with 17 left to play and finishing 2nd to the Philadelphia Phillies. Bower didn’t have a particularly good 2007 himself, as his consensus-1st-place-pick Golden Eagles struggled to a 7-6 regular season low-lighted by a 38-16 skull-dragging on the blue turf in Boise and 3 home conference losses: a outright whipping by UCF; a blown 10-point lead with 5 minutes left vs. Memphis; and a would-be thumping on ESPN Prime Time by Rice, who led at one point 31-7, but allowed to the Eagles to save some face with an inadequate comeback.

As well all know, Bower, famously (at least in Southern Miss circles) resistant to changing things up with the exception of offensive coordinators who somehow only manage to produce the same results of their predecessors, was pushed to resign shortly after the season ended. Having seen the team picked by everyone to own a weak conference fall flat on its face, Southern Miss fans and its administration came to the conclusion that they’d all already seen Bower’s best work…and it stopped being that about 5 years ago. It was time to try something different. As we all also know, the media along with other outsiders howled, especially about the circumstances of Bower being unceremoniously forced out after 14 straight winning seasons. Cries of, "Who does Southern Miss think they are?" and "You're Southern Miss! Who are you going to hire?" ruled the day. Some even went as far to say that there was no hope the move could possibly turn out well. Whether it will or not remains to be seen, as football doesn’t resume for another month or so, but the early returns have been encouraging.

Returning to the Mets for a moment, Randolph’s squad never seemed to recover from the 2007 collapse. Despite a $138 million payroll, three everyday players who started the 2007 All-Star Game, a 29-year-old ace with 2 Cy Young awards , and a handful of others not long removed from All-Star status, the Mets were only hanging around .500 and mired in inconsistency the first half of 2008. As the Mets found themselves at 34-35 and 6 ½ games out of the East lead in mid-June, team brass came to the same conclusion the Southern Miss brain trust did: the team’s performance as compared to its expectations was unacceptable and a change had to be made. Bench coach Jerry Manuel was named interim manager for the rest of the season. The media along with other outsiders howled, especially about the circumstances of Randolph being fired after a West Coast game. Mets ownership was ripped a new one. Nobody ever asked the Mets who they thought they were, but no one held back in telling the franchise that Willie Randolph was too good for them and wasn’t the problem in the first place.

A funny thing happened on the way to the Mets becoming the laughingstock of professional sports, though. The changes Manuel made appeared to start paying off. The Mets went on a 10-game winning streak through the All-Start break, and this past Thursday, the Mets took sole possession of first place in the National League East. The sports pundits, having already invested themselves so heavily in defending Randolph and castigating the Mets, were forced to resort to other, juvenile (or as a buddy of mine put it, "moronic") explanations for the turn around.

Perhaps the folks closest to a situation can make the best assessment after all. May Southern Miss once again enjoy the same fate as the Mets.

Best CFB Helmets

2008-07-22T18:19:56Z

This is a little off track, but I read about this at the very good Tide blog Roll Bama Roll and now have a deep need to purge this list from my head.

Traditional, plain helmets like Penn State's and old-school traditions like Michigan's wings and Alabama's numbers have their virtues, but the most important element of a good helmet design, if you ask me, is a strong, distinct logo unadorned by generics -- that is, words and/or letters, interlocking or otherwise. There's nothing wrong with, say, Tennessee or Illinois taking the easy route with the 'T' or block 'Illinois,' or North Carolina's interlocking 'NC.' If I was Carolina and my other options were a heel with tar on it or a goat, I'd definitely take that 'NC.'

But a few teams do it better:

1. Texas

2. Florida State (it always bothers me that the NCAA video games screw up this beauty by making it too small and too straight: the real thing wraps around the helmet with the subtle arc of a spear with killer intent)

3. Colorado (gets a pass on the interlocking letters because they're so well incorporated within an otherwise boring logo; also, as with FSU: love the gold)

4. Kansas State

5. Arkansas (best execution of a potentially sketchy concept: a drawing of a pig should be a disaster, but this is pretty clean and dynamic; quirky, completely original and only loses points for being monochromatic)

6. Southern Cal

7. Miami (unique, and like Texas, benefits from the clean white-on-white facemask)

8. Clemson

9. Michigan State (only with the Spartan helmet as shown - the big 'S' does not work)

10. Arizona State

Honorable Mention: Wyoming, Iowa, Auburn, Georgia Tech (after Colorado, the best use of interlocking letters), LSU (would score higher if it was just the cool Tiger head), South Carolina (again, love the chicken, hate the big 'C'), New Mexico (right idea, but not a great logo), SMU (ditto), Western Michigan (too close to the Denver Broncos) and Washington (only because of the colors). Washington is one of several teams, along with South Carolina, Illinois, Southern Miss, Missouri, Boston College, Arizona and many others with perfectly good logos but generic, word/letter-themed helmet designs. Washington would have kick-ass helmets if the sleek Husky replaced the block 'W.'

Dishonorable mention goes to schools that try to incorporate words/acronyms and a logo in one big, unwieldy mash-up: Iowa State, Oregon State, Boise State, Memphis, San Jose State and Akron. Western Kentucky gets a pass for its sorry "hand waving a towel" logo because it's just joining the show and obviously has no idea how to represent a Hilltopper. And to Washington State and NC State, because what the hell?

That is all.

Jahre Cheeseman: BleepingIdiots.com Interview

2008-07-22T02:36:30Z

This Week on BleepingIdiots.com we have a special treat for everyone as we sit down with Virginia Tech Hokies Redshirt Junior Running Back Jahre Cheeseman.

1. BleepingIdiots.com: First off tell us a bit about your injury, and the rehab process behind it. Do you feel you will be able to be back 100% and compete for the bulk of the carries this season?

Jahre Cheeseman: I broke my left fibula during a scrimmage in the spring. I been doin a lot of balance and flexibility exercise along with lifting. the agility came later this summer but are also going well. I think I will be ready for the season but i expect that we will have a two-back system once again at VT. kenny lewis is now clear to go and we are workin together to compliment each other.

2. BleepingIdiots.com: On November 1st last year against Georgia Tech, you showed the coaching staff as well as the whole nation what you are capable of with the ball in your hands when you broke off that 70 yard run. Do you feel that the GT game gave you stronger pull for more carries this upcoming season?

Jahre Cheeseman: I think it changed a couple of minds and opened some eyes. However I believe the spring determined alot of what kind of pt i will get this fall.

3. BleepingIdiots.com: Coming out High School, you were the #9 all purpose back in the nation. What was the toughest part of the transition from high school ball to the college game.

Jahre Cheeseman: I think the hardest transition was the mental aspect, and getting more involv ed in film and my reads on the field.

4. BleepingIdiots.com: Many scouts still consider you to be a running back / cornerback… where do you prefer to play and where are you most comfortable?

Jahre Cheeseman: I’d much rather play tailback. I feel more comfortabnle and able to produce more for the team at the running back spot, it is more natural to me.

5. BleepingIdiots.com: Which NFL running back do you compare most favorably to, and who do you feel you model your running style after?

Jahre Cheeseman: I dont really compare my running style to anyone, I kind of just do what comes natural on the field.

6. BleepingIdiots.com: What is your opinion on the Dual QB system with Tyrod and Sean? Do you think it has a negative, positive, or no effect on team chemistry?

Jahre Cheeseman: I really like the duel system that we have I think it brings out the best in each of them. Also I feel that it is great for the team and widely accepted

7. BleepingIdiots.com: You and Tyrod Taylor line up on the goal line, who gets to the 40 yardline first?

Jahre Cheeseman: I couldn’t even say, In my current status I would say easily he would take me. But prior to the injury I think it would be a good race.

8. BleepingIdiots.com: Every kid’s dream is to play as themselves in a video game. This Wednesday NCAA 09 comes out, any rating predictions for yourself?

Jahre Cheeseman: I didnt have any predictions for myself on the game I’m just curious to see what happens. I still have yet to pick it up. I’m just happy to even be in the game.