or "Why does this blog still have Richard Nixon's eerie smile as the most recent post"

As anyone can tell from the big honkin' "Farewell" in the middle of the front page the author of this great blog has moved on to new and, we assume, better paying ventures. Unfortunately that means for everyone who had come to rely on this site for its in-depth coverage a wide-angle view of the world of college football, your bookmarks are now obsolete. Fortunately, the same author, Matt Hinton, is still writing for the public and you can still read him regularly. Just update your favorites to include Dr. Saturday.*  Whatever you crave from a college football blog the good doctor is still serving it up regularly, just under the protective umbrella of Internet monolith Yahoo!. Come and get your fill!

I suggest every fan of this site make it over to the new site and wish Matt well. Let him know we're still there for him. By my count his work has so far received just 2 comments after 4 days and 33 posts. I for one wish Mr. Hinton many more seasons of happy blogging, and sincerely hope no one tries to  try and earn a few more bucks by subjugating Dr. Saturday to Yahoo! Insider status or something.

*If that link is not working for any reason just copy this URL directly into your browser.

http://sports.yahoo.com/ncaaf/blog/doc_saturday

We pick up today where Part One left off: with the West Division.

West Division

LSU (6-2)

Game-Changing Stats

• Pass Defense.
• Total Defense, Passing Downs.
• Total Defense, close games.
  
• Total Offense, 1st Downs.
  

Top Ranks

#2: Defensive 1st Down S&P+.
#2: Offensive 1st Down Line Yards+.
#3: Defensive 2nd Down S&P+, Passing.
#3: Defensive EqPts+.

Bottom Ranks

#91: Defensive Q3 S&P+, Passing.
#85: Defensive 3rd Down S&P+, Rushing.
#65: Offensive Q2 S&P+, Passing.
#60: Defensive Q4 Line Yards+.

How far does "They're LSU" get you?  The #1 thing that impacted LSU's success in 2007 was pass defense. Overall, their pass defense numbers were great, but they had some Passing Down breakdowns here and there, and it sometimes kept opponents in games.  So now All-American safety Craig Steltz is gone, stud CBs Chevis Jackson and Jonathan Zenon are gone...and all that remains is a whole mess of young 4- and 5-star recruits.  They're LSU, after all.  Phil Steele projects their starting secondary to be a senior FS (Curtis Taylor), two sophomores (Jai Eugene, Chad Jones) and a freshman (Patrick Johnson).  You know that these players will end up strong one day, but...well, how much did an inexperienced pass D hold Florida back in 2007?

The one thing LSU will have that Florida didn't last year is an insanely good defensive line.  It's amazing how much better you cover when opposing QBs only have about 1.5 seconds to find a target.  DEs Kirston Pittman and Tyson Jackson return, as does DT Marlon Favorite.  Granted, they have to replace new Kansas City Chief Glenn Dorsey, but...his replacement was the defensive MVP in the national title game last year.  Folks are assuming that Ricky Jean-Francois is ready to dominate every bit as much as Dorsey did last year, and he's done nothing to prove that the assumptions are incorrect...as long as he can stay on the field (he was under academic suspension for the entire 2007 regular season).  With possibly the best DL in the country, the DBs shouldn't find themselves in too many awkward situations.

As for their offense (particularly their 1st-down offense)...well, when you lose your leading rusher (Jacob Hester), it's nice to have the option of replacing him with any number of guys (Keiland Williams, Trindon Holliday, Charles Scott, Richard Murphy) who averaged well over 6 yards per carry.  It's also nice to have them running behind one of the best OL's in the country.

Summary: Really, the only reason LSU's not a runaway #1 pick in 2008 is that Ryan Perrilloux went and got himself kicked off the team, and LSU's starting QB will either be a RSFr (Jarrett Lee), a true Fr (Jordan Jefferson), or a Harvard transfer (Andrew Hatch).  But let's be honest--Matt Flynn wasn't exactly Joe Montana.  LSU's QB just has to not be a liability, and whoever wins this job should do fine in that regard.

Verdict: When Perrilloux got kicked off the team, LSU fell a bit further in everybody's rankings...I saw them pretty consistently in the #8-11 range, and as a fan of a fellow Top 10 team, I was hoping those projections were correct.  But this is still going to be a really, really good team.  I can see a QB mistake or pass defense breakdown costing them a shot at the national title, but from week to week there's still no other West team this good.

Continue reading this post »

So at my current rate over at Rock M Nation, I'll be sick of writing about the Big 12 by about Week Three of the season.  I mean...how many words have I written about the Ne-----a defense at this point?  7,000?  8,000?  And Ron Prince's JUCOs?  2,000?  I've still got a few more BTBS previews of Big 12 teams to write there, but as I get the chance over the last month of the offseason, I'm going to branch out a bit and write about other conferences.  And naturally we'll start with the OMG, greatest, fastest, most talented, most awesomely amazing conference known to man, the SEC.

Now, I'm calling this a "Beyond the Box Score" preview, but I'm going to make it as non-number friendly as possible.  I'm going to use some BTBS concepts to set up the team previews, but the rest will be more standard analysis.  And hopefully that will make you want to learn the BTBS concepts.  Yeah, that's the ticket!

Here's what we're going to do: I'm going to address each team's four main "Game-Changing Stats" emerging from their WinCorr's (I didn't figure anybody would care if I didn't list out the top 20 statistical categories as I've been doing recently...correct me if I'm wrong).  Then I'll look at their national '+' rankings and list their best and worst categories.

So let's get started.  I'll list teams in order of where they finished last year, I'll determine a 'balance of power' for each division, and then I'll look at the schedules.  East Division in Part One, West Division and schedules in Part Two.

(And one last note: I removed all 'pressure situation' categories from the list, as...well...pressure situations are important for everybody...we don't need stats to figure that one out...)

East Division

Tennessee (6-2)

Game-Changing Stats (i.e. stats with the highest impact on the team's W/L's, and what they mean for 2008)

• Pass Defense, close games.
  
• Q2 Defense.
• Rushing Offense, Non-Passing Downs.
• Q2 Offense.

Top Ranks

#11: Offensive Q4 Line Yards+.
#11: Offensive Q2 S&P+.
#12: Offensive Q2 S&P+, Passing.
#13: Defensive 2nd Down S&P+, Rushing.

Bottom Ranks

#117: Offensive 3rd Down Line Yards+.
#105: Offensive Q4 S&P+.
#102: Offensive Q4 S&P+, Passing.
#102: Offensive Q2 Line Yards+.

Remember how the Vols won the East last year instead of Florida or Georgia?  Remember that?

I've expressed my theory (and that's all it is right now--a theory...postulate, even) in the past that, in general, teams are either 1st and 3rd quarter teams or 2nd and 4th quarter teams.  The 1st/3rd's are generally teams who derive advantages from gameplanning and adjustments.  The 2nd/4th's are the teams with talent and athleticism that overcome you once the gameplanning is exhausted.  It's a relatively viable theory, I think, but UT blows that for now.  You see, Tennessee's best quarters were Q2 and Q4.  Their worst quarters were...Q2 and Q4  Their passing game found a rhythm in Q2, while their run blocking ground to a halt.  Then, in Q4 the opposite happened...the run blocking in Q4 was top-notch, while the passing game faltered.  How does this happen?  And more importantly...what does it mean?  Not totally sure.

All I know is this: their secondary returns intact, and though some new blood might not be a bad thing considering the occasional shakiness last year, I'll say this is a good thing.

Also tied to wins and losses: the rushing game.  Let's see: a) the line appears to have blocked better as the game wore on, b) Arian Foster returns, and c) Phil Steele calls UT's OL the best in the SEC.  Another good thing.

So now they just have to get this whole "Q2" thing figured out.  They lose 18-year starting QB Erik Ainge, so that's bad, but if Q2 really is a "talent" quarter, former stud recruit Jonathan Crompton should lead the offense relatively well.

Summary: I'm pretty torn on this team.  These numbers suggest that Tennessee should be as good or better at the things that where most important to them last year, and that could spell success.  Only, the teams around them possibly improved more.

I always thought Erik Ainge was rather overrated, so I don't feel that replacing him will be completely murderous.  The running game should click along pretty well as long as Crompton isn't a total liability in the passing game, and the defense isn't the best in the conference, but I think their success will come down to what's more important: the positive impact of getting better in the secondary, or the negative impact of getting worse on the D-Line.  For now we'll say the offense is better, the defense the same.

Verdict: Tennessee could be a bit better than what most are assuming (then again, SMQ and others have them in the Top 20, so maybe i'm just making it up that nobody likes them).  If they slip in the SEC East, it's because...well, they play in the SEC East, and Georgia, Florida, and South Carolina should all improve quite a bit in '08.

Continue reading this post »

I wanted to start a new segment in my blog posts that will run throughout the year during the off-season as well as in-season.  The "Who's the Man?" segment will pit two of college football's most elite players (usually who play the same position), and give you the fan the opportunity to vote for your favorite out of the two choices. 

First of all I'd like to apologize to the Georgia faithful fans out there who thought they were jipped when I didn't put Matt Stafford on my list of top ten returning quarterbacks.  You guys are part of the reason I posted this poll.

In this edition of Who's the Man, I'd like to examine who the better quarterback is, Matt Stafford of the Georgia Bulldogs, or Tim Tebow of the Florida Gators.

Let me know your opinion in the comment section.

Saturday Night Football is fast becoming one of the biggest events in the world of sports.  It has become an event where some of the best and biggest universities in the United States can showcase their school and their team.  Below I have posted the 12 prime time games that will occur on Saturday Night this fall:

• August 30: Michigan State at California (split-national)
• August 30: Alabama vs. Clemson at Georgia Dome, Atlanta (split-national)
• September 13: Ohio State at Southern California
• September 20: Georgia at Arizona State
• September 27: Illinois at Penn State (May be optioned to ESPN or ESPN2)
• October 4: Ohio State at Wisconsin (May be optioned to ESPN or ESPN2)
• October 4: Oregon at Southern California (May be optioned to ESPN or ESPN2)
• October 25: Penn State at Ohio State (May be optioned to ESPN or ESPN2)
• October 25: Notre Dame at Washington (May be optioned to ESPN or ESPN2)
• November 8: California at Southern California
• November 29: Oklahoma at Oklahoma State (May be optioned to earlier start time) (split-national)
• November 29: Notre Dame at Southern California (May be optioned to ESPN or ESPN2) (split-national)

The Big 12 Championship game takes place the following week on December 6th.  Out of all of those games, which is the most exciting/the game that you are most likely to watch?

I have a confession to make.  Well, not really so much a confession as a lament.  You see, I have the misfortune of being a fan of both the Southern Miss Golden Eagles and the New York Mets.  That’s the sports equivalent of continuously punching yourself in the nuts year-round.  While these two athletic entities may seem worlds apart: professional franchise in America’s biggest metropolis vs. college program in the moderately-urbanized Deep South, they actually have a lot in common—painfully.  Both are forever seen as "the other team" in town, figuratively for Southern Miss and literally for the Mets, historically living in the shadows of the two SEC schools in north Mississippi and the almighty Yankees, respectively.  Both the Golden Eagles and the Mets have a history of almost manic behavior, treating fans to both the highest of highs and also the lowest of lows.

The Mets had the miracle of 1969 and a decent run into the early ‘70s only to fall to horrific depths in the early ‘80s.  They rebounded in the mid-80s, building a contender that peaked with a dominating regular season and near-miraculous World Series title in 1986 and what appeared to all to be a budding dynasty.  After an injury-plagued year in ’87 came absolute domination of the National League in 1988, but that was derailed in the playoffs by a heavy underdog led by Orel Hershiser and Kirk Gibson: a Dodger team the Mets had handled 10 out of 11 times in the regular season.  From there, the Mets became the Dynasty That Never Was, suffering through the early '90s with a futility only matched by the franchise’s early days as an expansion team.

Southern Miss has similarly had its moments of greatness during the modern era of college football: a 30-14 beatdown of Archie Manning’s #4 Ole Miss in 1970, a run into the Top 10 in 1981, a stunning 38-29 handling of Alabama in 1982 to end Bear Bryant’s 57-game home winning streak, a season-opening upending of #6 Florida State Seminoles in 1989, and an "Alabama State Championship" in 1990 with victories at both Alabama and Auburn, to name a few.  As with the Mets though, the "dynasty" never manages to come together as the team invariably stumbles at the hands of an underdog in devastating fashion.  The 1970 team finished 5-6 while dropping games to the likes of West Texas A&M and even losing its own Homecoming.  A 3-point loss to Louisville in Game 10 killed the then-8-0-1 1981 team’s shot at the Sugar Bowl.  The week after scoring those 38 points in Tuscaloosa, the ’82 team only managed 6 vs. Louisiana Tech in a losing effort in its home finale. The 1989 team lost to an unranked Mississippi State the week after shaking the earth in Tallahassee.  A head-scratching loss to North Carolina State in the 1990 All-American Bowl dropped that team out of the national rankings heading into the off-season.  Perhaps the worst loss of them all, though, was in 2000, when a Southern Miss team that had only lost 2 league games in the first 4 seasons of the newfangled Conference USA stood on the very edge of the Top 10 and perhaps permanent national significance after two Top 20 finishes in the previous 3 years, a nail-biting 3-point loss to Tennessee, a 21-0 thumping of Alabama, a 28-6 win over Oklahoma State, and 4 conference wins to start the year.  Poised for a breakthrough before a full house ready to burst, the Eagles were blitzkrieged at their own homecoming by Louisville to the tune of 49-28.  Honestly, as SMQ has alluded to previously, the program never fully recovered from that day.

The similarities between the Mets and Southern Miss don’t stop there, though.  Take a look at the last two men chosen to lead their respective charges: Willie Randolph and Jeff Bower.  Bower, as anyone who finds themselves reading this should already know, was the home-town kid made good.  A prolific quarterback at Southern Miss during the early-to-mid '70s who later married the homecoming queen and had a stint as an assistant coach thereafter, Bower was hired as the Sothern Miss head coach in 1990 (just prior to the aforementioned All-American Bowl).  The Mets made a similar move prior to their 2005 season, hiring Willie Randolph as their manager.  Randolph was a Brooklyn native and actually grew up a Mets fan prior to eventually finishing his playing career with them.  Both men were cheered by fans and media hoping for a storybook ending.  Both also had promising spikes of success, Randolph’s 2006 squad won the National League East for the franchise’s first half-pennant in 18 years, and Bower’s aforementioned late ‘90s teams were arguably the best stretch of football season-for-season in school history.

However, both coaches also had their hard times.  While the Louisville loss was the most devastating, Bower’s teams upheld the unfortunate Southern Miss tradition of tripping up at the most inopportune times.  A season finale loss to a rather pedestrian Houston in 1996 cost the Eagles—ranked at the time--the first out-right CUSA championship, with the Cougars taking the tie-breaker and Liberty Bowl bid.  How big was the loss?  The Liberty Bowl felt so gypped it changed the rules for picking the conference representative and eliminated the tie-breaker the next season, thus allowing the bowl to pick its preferred co-champion should the situation ever arise again.  Eight years later, a ranked (yet otherwise lifeless) Southern Miss managed to get throttled 52-24 at home by a Cincinnati team that had just earlier lost to Army, providing relief for the Black Knights 19-game losing streak.  Similarly, Randolph’s Mets made their case for baseball infamy in 2007, losing in uglier and more original ways the entire month of September en route to blowing a 7-game lead with 17 left to play and finishing 2nd to the Philadelphia Phillies.  Bower didn’t have a particularly good 2007 himself, as his consensus-1st-place-pick Golden Eagles struggled to a 7-6 regular season low-lighted by a 38-16 skull-dragging on the blue turf in Boise and 3 home conference losses: a outright whipping by UCF; a blown 10-point lead with 5 minutes left vs. Memphis; and a would-be thumping on ESPN Prime Time by Rice, who led at one point 31-7, but allowed to the Eagles to save some face with an inadequate comeback.

As well all know, Bower, famously (at least in Southern Miss circles) resistant to changing things up with the exception of offensive coordinators who somehow only manage to produce the same results of their predecessors, was pushed to resign shortly after the season ended.  Having seen the team picked by everyone to own a weak conference fall flat on its face, Southern Miss fans and its administration came to the conclusion that they’d all already seen Bower’s best work…and it stopped being that about 5 years ago.  It was time to try something different.  As we all also know, the media along with other outsiders howled, especially about the circumstances of Bower being unceremoniously forced out after 14 straight winning seasons.  Cries of, "Who does Southern Miss think they are?" and "You're Southern Miss!  Who are you going to hire?" ruled the day.  Some even went as far to say that there was no hope the move could possibly turn out well.  Whether it will or not remains to be seen, as football doesn’t resume for another month or so, but the early returns have been encouraging. 

Returning to the Mets for a moment, Randolph’s squad never seemed to recover from the 2007 collapse.  Despite a $138 million payroll, three everyday players who started the 2007 All-Star Game, a 29-year-old ace with 2 Cy Young awards , and a handful of others not long removed from All-Star status, the Mets were only hanging around .500 and mired in inconsistency the first half of 2008.  As the Mets found themselves at 34-35 and 6 ½ games out of the East lead in mid-June, team brass came to the same conclusion the Southern Miss brain trust did: the team’s performance as compared to its expectations was unacceptable and a change had to be made.  Bench coach Jerry Manuel was named interim manager for the rest of the season.  The media along with other outsiders howled, especially about the circumstances of Randolph being fired after a West Coast game.  Mets ownership was ripped a new one.  Nobody ever asked the Mets who they thought they were, but no one held back in telling the franchise that Willie Randolph was too good for them and wasn’t the problem in the first place.

A funny thing happened on the way to the Mets becoming the laughingstock of professional sports, though.  The changes Manuel made appeared to start paying off.  The Mets went on a 10-game winning streak through the All-Start break, and this past Thursday, the Mets took sole possession of first place in the National League East.  The sports pundits, having already invested themselves so heavily in defending Randolph and castigating the Mets, were forced to resort to other, juvenile (or as a buddy of mine put it, "moronic") explanations for the turn around.

Perhaps the folks closest to a situation can make the best assessment after all.  May Southern Miss once again enjoy the same fate as the Mets.

This is a little off track, but I read about this at the very good Tide blog Roll Bama Roll and now have a deep need to purge this list from my head.

Traditional, plain helmets like Penn State's and old-school traditions like Michigan's wings and Alabama's numbers have their virtues, but the most important element of a good helmet design, if you ask me, is a strong, distinct logo unadorned by generics -- that is, words and/or letters, interlocking or otherwise. There's nothing wrong with, say, Tennessee or Illinois taking the easy route with the 'T' or block 'Illinois,' or North Carolina's interlocking 'NC.' If I was Carolina and my other options were a heel with tar on it or a goat, I'd definitely take that 'NC.'

But a few teams do it better:

1. Texas

2. Florida State (it always bothers me that the NCAA video games screw up this beauty by making it too small and too straight: the real thing wraps around the helmet with the subtle arc of a spear with killer intent)

3. Colorado (gets a pass on the interlocking letters because they're so well incorporated within an otherwise boring logo; also, as with FSU: love the gold)

4. Kansas State

5. Arkansas (best execution of a potentially sketchy concept: a drawing of a pig should be a disaster, but this is pretty clean and dynamic; quirky, completely original and only loses points for being monochromatic)

6. Southern Cal

7. Miami (unique, and like Texas, benefits from the clean white-on-white facemask)

8. Clemson

 9. Michigan State (only with the Spartan helmet as shown - the big 'S' does not work)

10. Arizona State

Honorable Mention: Wyoming, Iowa, Auburn, Georgia Tech (after Colorado, the best use of interlocking letters), LSU (would score higher if it was just the cool Tiger head), South Carolina (again, love the chicken, hate the big 'C'), New Mexico (right idea, but not a great logo), SMU (ditto), Western Michigan (too close to the Denver Broncos) and Washington (only because of the colors). Washington is one of several teams, along with South Carolina, Illinois, Southern Miss, Missouri, Boston College, Arizona and many others with perfectly good logos but generic, word/letter-themed helmet designs. Washington would have kick-ass helmets if the sleek Husky replaced the block 'W.'

Dishonorable mention goes to schools that try to incorporate words/acronyms and a logo in one big, unwieldy mash-up: Iowa State, Oregon State, Boise State, Memphis, San Jose State and Akron. Western Kentucky gets a pass for its sorry "hand waving a towel" logo because it's just joining the show and obviously has no idea how to represent a Hilltopper. And to Washington State and NC State, because what the hell?

That is all.

This Week on BleepingIdiots.com  we have a special treat for everyone as we sit down with Virginia Tech Hokies Redshirt Junior Running Back Jahre Cheeseman.

1. BleepingIdiots.com: First off tell us a bit about your injury, and the rehab process behind it. Do you feel you will be able to be back 100% and compete for the bulk of the carries this season?

• Jahre Cheeseman: I broke my left fibula during a scrimmage in the spring. I been doin a lot of balance and flexibility exercise along with lifting. the agility came later this summer but are also going well. I think I will be ready for the season but i expect that we will have a two-back system once again at VT. kenny lewis is now clear to go and we are workin together to compliment each other.

2. BleepingIdiots.com: On November 1st last year against Georgia Tech, you showed the coaching staff as well as the whole nation what you are capable of with the ball in your hands when you broke off that 70 yard run. Do you feel that the GT game gave you stronger pull for more carries this upcoming season?

• Jahre Cheeseman: I think it changed a couple of minds and opened some eyes. However I believe the spring determined alot of what kind of pt i will get this fall.

3. BleepingIdiots.com: Coming out High School, you were the #9 all purpose back in the nation. What was the toughest part of the transition from high school ball to the college game.

• Jahre Cheeseman: I think the hardest transition was the mental aspect, and getting more involv ed in film and my reads on the field.

4. BleepingIdiots.com: Many scouts still consider you to be a running back / cornerback… where do you prefer to play and where are you most comfortable?

• Jahre Cheeseman: I’d much rather play tailback. I feel more comfortabnle and able to produce more for the team at the running back spot, it is more natural to me.

5. BleepingIdiots.com: Which NFL running back do you compare most favorably to, and who do you feel you model your running style after?

• Jahre Cheeseman: I dont really compare my running style to anyone, I kind of just do what comes natural on the field.

6. BleepingIdiots.com: What is your opinion on the Dual QB system with Tyrod and Sean? Do you think it has a negative, positive, or no effect on team chemistry?

• Jahre Cheeseman: I really like the duel system that we have I think it brings out the best in each of them. Also I feel that it is great for the team and widely accepted

7. BleepingIdiots.com: You and Tyrod Taylor line up on the goal line, who gets to the 40 yardline first?

• Jahre Cheeseman: I couldn’t even say, In my current status I would say easily he would take me. But prior to the injury I think it would be a good race.

8. BleepingIdiots.com: Every kid’s dream is to play as themselves in a video game. This Wednesday NCAA 09 comes out, any rating predictions for yourself?

• Jahre Cheeseman: I didnt have any predictions for myself on the game I’m just curious to see what happens. I still have yet to pick it up. I’m just happy to even be in the game.

So in yesterday's WinCorr conversation, I mentioned that while WinCorr could be (and was) used to look at the overall stats that are most directly connected to success on the field.  I also mentioned that the measure could be used to create an individual 'footprint' for each team.  To illustrate this, I'm simply going to look at said footprint for a few teams and see where that takes us.

Team-Specific WinCorr's

We'll start with Colorado since, well, I've already done them.  Here are Colorado's top WinCorr's (and my conclusions) from Tuesday's Colorado piece:

Colorado's Top WinCorr's (any categories that were > 0.800)

1. Offensive Close-game Passing S&P+ (Correlation: 0.875)
2. Offensive Close-game Passing S&P (0.864)
3. Offensive Close-game Passing PPP (0.860)
4. Defensive Passing Success Rate, Pressure Situations (0.854)
5. Defensive Success Rate, Pressure Situations (0.843)
6. Offensive Line Yards on Non-Passing Downs (0.837)
7. Offensive EqPts gained in Non-Passing Downs (0.829)
8. Total Offensive EqPts gained (0.821)
   
9. Offensive EqPts+ (0.819)
10. Defensive Rushing Success Rate, Pressure Situations (0.817)
11. Offensive Rushing S&P, Pressure Situations (0.806)

There's some repetition in there obviously, and it builds a very distinct narrative.

• When Colorado was able to move the ball through the air, they probably won (especially when they were able to rip off a couple big plays).
• The Buffs found themselves in quite a few 'pressure' (i.e. 4th quarter, score within two possessions) situations, and when the defense stepped up, they won.
• Offensive 'Pressure' numbers weren't as important, but to the extent that they were, it was all about moving the ball on the ground and staying out of passing situations.
  
• Actually, that went for the whole game.  Staying out of uncomfortable situations was key for the Buffs--if they were able to move the ball well in Non-Passing Downs and stay out of Passing Down situations, they stood a chance.  But with a shaky freshman QB behind center, Passing Downs were murder.

In some cases, you can see how this would be useful in making your 2008 predictions/rankings.  Obviously the basic criteria--returning starters, etc.--are still useful, but in discussing Colorado we can see that how they deal with things like finding a more consistent passing game is a little more important than other things.

Anyway...let's take a look at some other teams to determine a) how different one team's 'footprint' is to another's, and b) what all this Team WinCorr concept can tell us.

We'll start with Phil Steele's preseason #1 team, Florida.

Florida's Top WinCorr

1. Defensive Passing Success Rate, pressure situations (0.960)
2. Defensive Success Rate, pressure situations (0.928)
3. Offensive Rushing Success Rate, redzone (0.899)
4. Offensive S&P (0.888)
5. Defensive Rushing Success Rate, pressure situations (0.869)
6. Defensive Rushing S&P, pressure situations (0.861)
7. Offensive S&P+, close games (0.856)
8. Offensive S&P, close games (0.849)
9. Offensive Success Rates (0.847)
10. Offensive Passing Success Rates, close games (0.845)
11. Offensive PPP, close games (0.843)
12. Offensive Passing S&P, close games (0.837)
13. Defensive Rushing S&P+, Non-Passing Downs (0.832)
14. Defensive S&P, pressure situations (0.827)
15. Offensive Passing S&P (0.827)

Tie this with what we already (think we) know about Florida, and you can reach the following conclusions.

• Florida found themselves in a lot of pressure situations (kind of like Colorado), and their defensive performance was key (as with Colorado).  We kind of already knew this--the offense had no problem generating points against Georgia and Michigan in particular, but they couldn't keep points off the board.
  
• Even though we discovered yesterday that Points Per Play was more important than S&P and success rates overall, for Florida it was all about Success Rates.  The explosiveness was always there, but the efficiency broke down at inopportune times.
• '+' numbers weren't as strong in correlation than the more raw statistics.  This most likely tells you that their performance didn't have much to do with the opponent they were playing.  Offense was pretty much good no matter what and defense was average(ish) no matter what.
• The importance of redzone success running the ball was very much unique to Florida.  Either it tells you that the predictability of "Tebow right, Tebow left, and Tebow up the middle" held them back at times, or that their rushing game down there was bad until they instituted "Tebow right, Tebow left, and Tebow up the middle."  I'm leaning toward the latter.

So...being that Florida was breaking in a lot of young players on defense, and they've now gotten a year's worth of pressure situations under their belt, you figure the defense will respond better to pressure than they did last year.  That's obviously a good thing for UF's title chances in '08.  Meanwhile, we can't say anything definitive about the Gators' consistency/efficiency, but we do know that UF's non-Tebow running game should be in better shape in '08.  Not only will Kestahn Moore have another year of experience, but if the spring is any indication, USC transfer Emmanuel Moody will be more than ready to make some noise, and true freshman Chris Rainey could be dangerous as well.  Having more realistic threats in the redzone should alleviate that issue.

Okay, so the WinCorr concept says encouraging things about Florida.  How about my own team, Mizzou?

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