Like any right-minded College Football fan out there I would obviously like the Championship to be settled on the field in a Playoff system. But unfortunately we have to play with the cards we were dealt and this year’s season is yet another year of BCS football travesty.

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Yes you good Defense players will go with Walker and again you will be lost in Westwoodie at the Mother Load. I know you hang out their because the seats are the way you like it. so have a terrible day and make sure you step on that banana peel. OH by the way your QB recuit looked like Craft out there tonight only thing that was good for you was Pressy, but that was when Barkley was hitting him on the numbers. Maybe Chow Chow can steal him or maybe Weissel Man can teach him Texas holdem or how to bet a pool? So I guess it is time to say yo bartender Jo Boo needs a refill!

            Tonight will be the 74th Heisman Trophy presentation, and despite not knowing who will receive this honor yet, I am already disappointed. Is this disappointment because a very deserving quarterback from Texas tech isn’t even at the ceremony after an amazing statistical season? Or is it because a fan favorite and constant nationally publicized quarterback from Florida might repeat as the winner because of regional voting and the bigger spotlight? Either way I’m prepared for yet another miserable Heisman result.

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Question: What percentage of teams win based on the Vegas point spread?

Why I asked the Question: I entered my first NFL survivor pool this year and wanted to know at what point spreads do the chances increase for guessing the correct winner between two teams.

Analysis: I did an online search trying to find the past lines with little luck. There are a ton websites on gambling and after going through a few hundred, I found the following that had the lines:

http://www.footballlocks.com/nfl_point_spreads.shtml

- NFL lines for 2006 and 2007 (towards bottom of page):

http://www.collegefootballpoll.com/weekly_picks.html

- College lines back to the 2003 season.

Even though I was not looking for the college number, I decided to run the numbers anyway. I did want more data for the NFL , especially since they have about 200 less games with point spreads than college games do (in 2007 there were 677 college games with lines vice 353 NFL games). I then noticed that Phil Steele's Pro Football publication had the lines back to 2003. I asked them where they got there numbers and they gave me the following website which has NFL and college lines back to 2001:

http://www.ncsports.com/online/schedulepage.html

A combo of the two databases could be used, but Vegas and the people betting on the games seemed to be less accurate guessing college games (probably for less information available), so the two were kept separate.

Games with ½ point spreads had less games than the other games around them, so I also created a weighted percentage. It is 50% from that specific line, 16 % for each ½ point away and 9% for each 1 point away. This helps with evening out impacts a huge upset in the extreme values. For example Stanford's 24-23 upset of USC when they were a 39.5 point underdog. There were much more lines at even numbers vice ½ so this help to smooth the winning percentages from one value to the next.

Note: The college games from 2005 don't have ½ point lines.

So far I have complete comparisons on NFL 2004 to 2007 and college 2005 to 2007 and here is the results. I will add data as I find time to go back through the previous years..

NFL – Vegas's line's year by year winning percentage:

2007 69.6%

2006 59.6%

2005 75.1%

2004 64.1%

Total 67.1%

College - Vegas's line's year by year winning percentage:

2007 73.7%

2006 75.4%

2005 72.3%

Total 73.8%

Percent chance for a team to win the game base on point spread (using the weighted values)

Complete NFL list (2004 to 2007)

Complete College list (2005 to 2007)

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Oklahoma is going to roll this Saturday! 

UT's secondary can not handle Juaquin Iglesias, Manny Johnson, Ryan Broyles and Jermaine Gresham... especially with Sam Bradford standing tall behind a huge O-Line.  I know, I know... "Will Muschamp has energized the UT defense"... Whatever.  Unless he's suited up and on the field; he will not be able to help his young secondary.

UT can't run the football.  Colt McCoy will get his head knocked off if he trys to be the hero and run all over the place.  Chris Ogbonaya is not the answer, sorry 'Horns.

OU has tons of wrinkles up their sleeves.  Remember last year... OU threw the wide receiver screen about 1,001 times and it worked every time.  UT was dumbfounded by it.  Stoops will expose the weaknesses of the UT defense.

Boomer Sooner!

Among all the questions coming into this week regarding weather or not the Penn State University Nittany Lions were "the real deal," I have to pose another question.  I was watching the PSU-Purdue game today, and I understand all the traditions that are carried by the PSU football team, but would it be too much to ask for PSU to put the Nittany Lion logo on their helmet?  Or, if you don't want to put the logo on the helmet, what about just a plain block letter "S" in Nittany Lion Blue?  I don't know, but the plain white helmet just seems like it has something missing.

Additionally, for news and scores on the Collegiate and Pro-Football level, head on over to The Pigskin Report.  It offers news and analysis from college and pro level games, as well as scores, rankings, and polls in College Football Gameday Central, and NFL Gameday Central.

Good game against Tennessee last although a little closer than should have been. Big game tomorrow against a conference rival, Vanderbilt. Lets give it to em! Auburns really got the talent to go far this year. We're 4-1 so far we got to just conintue playing tough and who knows maybe we'll go to the champinoship. We got the talent and the coaching, lets just put it together on the field. Check out the Tiger Walk

Yeahhh Trojans!!! Way to kick buckeyes butt! And they thought they even had a chance. Are they out of their minds??? I mean come on we are stackeddd. Maybe now they’ll realize how much better we are than them. I sure hope Oregon St. is ready for us cuz if not it'll be another shellacking. Check out the Sensational Song Girls of USC GO TROJANS!!!!! Lets get ready for the bowl game!! :)  # 1 babyyy

Before I get to my question of the week, I'd like to congratulate Mizzou's Chase Daniel for another spectacular performance in which he passed for 439 yards and completed a Big 12 best.  As it stands right now, Daniel looks to be the clear cut front runner for the Heisman (based on stats alone, mind you).  I don't want to get too anxious yet, however, because It is fairly easy to put up those kinds of numbers when the toughest team on your schedule to this point was Illinois.  The next three weeks will be very interesting, and could make or break Daniel's ligitimacy, as Mizzou travels to Nebraska, heads back home for Oklahoma State, and then travels to Texas to take on the Longhorns.  I'll consider Daniel ligit if and when he comes away with wins from those teams.

As for this edition of College Football Question, I hail from outside of Pittsburgh, and with Pittsburgh being part of the Big East, I thought I'd gear my question towards that conference.  As it stands right now, the only team ranked in the top 25 is the University of South Florida.  Yes, you heard me right, USF.  The Mountaineers of West Virginia University keep laying eggs against teams that they should flat out beat.  Pittsburgh isn't doing so well.  Even though they did win on Saturday against Iowa, they won by a point, and had to battle back to do so.  Additionally, the Panthers already have a loss against Bowling Green.  Right now, it seems to me that the Big East is the weakest conference in college football, which is why I pose the question how strong is the Big East conference?  Do you think that it can rebound from its near complete departure from the world of "rankedhood?"