College Football Question: Sleeper Teams
by SteveMeredith
on Jul 13, 2008 7:14 PM EDT
Last year, Missouri shocked the nation with its climb up the BCS and Associated Press polls (in week 13 they were ranked number one in both polls). On Saturday night ESPN Game Night was debating which teams had a shot at the '08 BCS title. The crew at Game Night came up with seven possible championship contenders. I don't know if I necessarily agree with that assessment, but I do think it raises an interesting question. Which team, in your mind, has the best shot to be this year's Missouri? In other words, what sleeper team will you have your eye on in '08?
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Wake Forest
Why Wake?
Because I keep looking at their schedule and dont see an obvious loss. I dont think they will go undefeated or necessarily win even their division, but it wouldnt surprise me either.
Clemson is the obvious divisional favorite, but they play @ Wake and the rest of their ACC schedule is tougher that Wake’s. Clemson could beat Wake and still lose the division (6-2 v 7-1), although that is less likely.
I guess we will find out a lot for sure when they go to Tallahassee for FSU’s last game with suspended players (about WF and FSU).
by gtne91 on Jul 14, 2008 9:16 AM EDT 0 recs
Wake??--hardly qualifies as a sleeper
cause in the consensus is they are a preseason top 30 team. To me sleepers are teams that are currently flying way under the radar.
Here’s 2 examples:
Northwestern-lots or returning starters and a very manageable schedule.
Oregon State—when all is said and done this team always seems to overachieve.
I don’t think either is a real threat to win their conference—but a top 25 finish and decent bowl game are possibilities.
by baal on Jul 14, 2008 11:49 AM EDT 0 recs
Amen...
...on Northwestern. I’m obviously a fan, but improved coordinators, senior returning talent (along with talented freshmen/redshirts coming in), and a favorable schedule that could potentially have them start 9-0 (going into hosting OSU, travelling to Michigan, and hosting the Illini) means one thing, to me:
Florida New Years Bowl game.
Believe in the ‘Cats….overlook them at your own peril!
by Chadnudj on
Jul 14, 2008 1:05 PM EDT
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Sports Book Odds
Just checked 2 sites, one had WF at 100-1 odds, the other at 125-1, to win BCS. Sounds like a sleeper to me. I think no one would be surpised if they went 9-3, but they are a national title sleeper.
What is interesting is that WF has better odds to win the ACC than a number of teams that have better odds than them for BCS title.
I guess they arent a sleeper in the same way Mizzou was last year – they wouldnt be coming from out of the blue.
by gtne91 on
Jul 14, 2008 2:18 PM EDT
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Speaking for the Pac-10, I think both Cal and Oregon could really surprise people this year.
Cal has a good O-line and a decent number of returners on the defense. Also they have a good QB situation, as SMQ pointed out Longshore is above-average to excellent when healthy and Riley’s performance (outside of the “epic boner”) is surprisingly efficient. Of course they lost some serious receivers (Hawkins and Jackson) and a good RB, but Cal always seems to find a decent runner so I don’t think it should be that big of a concern.
Oregon, however, is another story. If Nate Costa really is Dixon-esque then Oregon could field a special team this year. Costa runs a 4.5 40 (allegedly, and that was before he tore his ACL) and has been hyped up considerably by Oregon fans. They should field an elite secondary, and they return 7 (or 8?) starters on defense. I also think people forget how good of a back up Jeremiah Johnson was before he was injured. He’s fast, can block, and can catch passes. With a little bit of luck (i.e. no more injuries) this Oregon team could be as good as last year’s edition, and that’s saying a lot as last year’s Dixon lead team was the best team offensively in the country. Although they are ranked near the bottom of the top 25 by a few services, its possible that they could make a sleeper run to the Rose Bowl IF USC beats tOSU.
by Laughing Stock on Jul 14, 2008 3:35 PM EDT 0 recs
Maybe Oregon...
But that’s pretty rough. Oregon has a brutal road schedule. I don’t think any game is a sure-fire loss, but squeaking out wins won’t be easy either. I doubt Oregon will be as potent as last year, but I do think they’ll be a good contender.
Go Duckies!
by JShufelt on
Jul 17, 2008 12:42 AM EDT
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I think its pretty obvious
I think ND will do better than the odds maker’s expect this season. Maybe the term “2nd tier sleeper” would be most appropriate.
Facts:
Last season, ND fielded their youngest team in its storied history against a scheduled that had 10 bowl teams. This season, the significant majority of the ND team returns and the schedule is undeniably more like a typical BCS conference schedule.
Talentwise, over the last 3 years ND has had better recruiting classes than every D1 team, except for USC and Florida. There are maybe 1 or 2 other programs that could argue to have done better, but the point still stands. The talent is there. Granted most of this talent is just 3rd year juniors (still young in the trenches) or younger, the youth did get significant PT last season.
Heck, even Phil Steele picks ND as his most improved team.
The brass tacks of it . . . . . ND either proves to be a better team this year, or ND’s coach gets shitcanned.
Will ND win all the marbles? Probably, not. Will ND surprise some teams as their young talent comes of age? Definitely.
Bet the over this season and enjoy the season.
By the way, the easiest bet is that the 2009 season will have a lot of nauseating media hype around the ND program. Historically teams choke in the limelight, which is why I think 2008 will be better than expected.
by atepesm on Jul 15, 2008 6:00 PM EDT 0 recs
ND has never done better than the odds maker's expect
because they know the homers will pound the hell out of the line. The #1 rule in sports betting is to never bet on ND or the Yankees.
I question wasn’t “who will be the most improved”, then ND is an obvious answer b/c they were on part with Temple last year.
Also, there hasn’t been a season since my birth that did not include a lot of [unwarranted] nauseating media hype around the ND program.
Kevin @ Black Shoe Diaries
by Kevin HD on
Jul 19, 2008 9:29 AM EDT
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There is a chart somewhere online that ranks teams based on their preseason odds and then compares them to where they end up. Much to my delight, Notre Dame and Michigan are very high on that list. I will search for a link to it later today.
by gahnki on
Jul 21, 2008 2:03 PM EDT
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The Chart
...is here: http://preseason.stassen.com/over-under/all-teams.html
But I’d put about zero stock into it. The “Most Overrated” teams since 1989 are Michigan, Texas, Notre Dame, Nebraska, Florida State, USC, Miami, Oklahoma, Clemson, UCLA and Florida, most of which also happen to be the most consistently successful programs in the country. When you’re picked in the top 10/15 every year, it’s impossible to over-achieve. Literally, there is nowhere to go but down.
I always thought “overachiever” was basically an insult. I’d much rather underachieve by finishing No. 16 when I was picked fifth than overachieve by finishing No. 22 when nobody picked me to do anything at all. I mean, the “Most Underrated” since 1989, according to that chart, is Washington State, for finishing in the top 25 six times in 19 years. “Most Overrated” Michigan has finished in the top 25 about three times as often in the same span, won half a dozen conference championships and shared a national championship. So who cares?
by SMQ on
Jul 23, 2008 3:57 PM EDT
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Heck, even Phil Steele picks ND as his most improved team.
That’s not exactly hard. I mean, nobody (okay, maybe Minnesota) has more room for improvement.
Notre Dame won’t be a train wreck this year (at least, not if they figure out that little thing called “blocking”), but they won’t be anything remotely special either. I’d be surprised if they go better than 1-2 against the Big Ten (Michigan-@MSU-Purdue); BC and Navy will be realistic threats as well, and USC is going to eviscerate them in the finale. 7-5 and another evisceration in the bowl as they get picked for the Big East’s first slot behind the BCS on name alone seems like a reasonable scenario, and that assumes at most one slip-up in the other games.
by SpartanDan on
Jul 22, 2008 1:40 AM EDT
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Don't believe in the luck of the Irish
OK – I’m an Alabama fan (you may recall me as “Newspaper Hack”), so I dislike Notre Dame out of hand. But, as a former sportswriter and a degenerate college football fan, I have to advise atepesm to chill on the talent and returning players bit. In ‘99, Bama had a damn good season (beating a Spurrier-coached Florida team in Gainesville and the SEC Championship Game, plus knocking off Auburn) and was returning just about everyone in 2000. Hence, the reason the Tide was preseason No. 3. However, it later came to light that the ‘99 team won because of Shaun Alexander and Chris Samuels, not the coaching or other player leadership. So, I have to say, watch out. Be paranoid and cynical.
"You can travel 'cross this entire land, there ain't no place like Birmingham." – Randy Newman
by John Vierdsen on Jul 15, 2008 11:34 PM EDT 0 recs
Actually, re-read my last couple of lines.
John, I think you missed a line or two.
You say Bama did well (when not in the spotlight), but when expected to do well, underperformed.
This is the exact reason why I think ND will overachieve in 2008.
ND is currently ranked somewhere around 60th in few pre-season polls. That’s a lot different than expecting ND to be a pre-season #3, like ‘Bama was in 2000.
Besides, I think ND has a Shaun Alexander. ND’s big halfback (Robert Hughes) requires 2-3 guys to tackle him before he goes down. And he’s got surprisingly quick feet. If the team runs the ball (more than Weis has in the past), This kid is going to light teams up. He’s the only ND kid that has CONSISTENTLY shown something special. He earned good PT last year as a true freshman. He knows the offense this year and should prove to be a legitimate weapon. I’ve had season tickets to ND games for 35+ years. This kid has the potential to be a once in a 5-10 year kind of kid for ND.
Hence, ND has a solid shot at being a top 20 (+/- 10) team by the end of the season, but like I said, I don’t think you’ll see them winning any BCS games.
By the way, I don’t believe in the luck of the Irish. However, I do believe that good talent, well coached, that consistently works their ass off, will somehow end up getting lucky. Funny how that works out, no?
by atepesm on Jul 16, 2008 3:07 AM EDT 0 recs
Nah, I read the last two...
Maybe it’s just my nature, though. I just can’t understand anyone getting really optimistic about anybody in July. Even through October, you never know. Both teams I follow – Bama and South Carolina – went 0-for-November last year. It’s crazy. The team goes out, notches a couple big wins, then hits the skids.
But, hey, if you feel good, ride it. It just may work out.
"You can travel 'cross this entire land, there ain't no place like Birmingham." – Randy Newman
by John Vierdsen on Jul 16, 2008 4:31 AM EDT 0 recs
+1 on the Randy Newman line, John
There can never be enough—although I’m pretty sure he was being sarcastic, as usual, about Birmingham (in the seventies, anyway; it looks like a decent enough place to me now, if not particularly unique). This is the same guy who did “I Love L.A.” and “My Old Kentucky Home” and called Cleveland the “city of lights, city of magic” because one of its rivers was so polluted it burst into flames. Other than “Baltimore” and maybe the last verse of “Rednecks,” I’m not sure the guy’s written a straightforward line in his life. At least not in any of the songs I like.
by SMQ on
Jul 16, 2008 9:33 PM EDT
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You know, Kansas is way more a sleeper team than Missouri… Mizzou started 2006 hot, then fizzled out. Kansas, on the other hand – no one gave them a chance. Missouri, Illinois, etc. were all teams people expected to be better (though they exceeded expectations).
The next Missouri will probably be Rutgers, in my opinion. They’ll do a lot better this year than last year, even with the departure of Ray Rice. I expect them to be in NC consideration at some point.
The next Kansas? I doubt it will happen this year – that was a rare occurence (along the lines of 2006 Rutgers). The closest candidate I can think of is Vanderbilt. It won’t happen, but you never know.
Oh, and I see Purdue as the next Boston College.
by Rishi on Jul 20, 2008 1:06 AM EDT 0 recs
Indiana
I’m not a Hoosier fan (in fact,go Michigan) but they had an okay season last year. I think they’ll improve on it and make another bowl game and actually win it! Maybe not top 25, but definitly top 40 team at the end of the season.
by EagleX16 on Aug 2, 2008 4:10 PM EDT 0 recs
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