Who Voted You King?
Just to back up the skin-of-the-teeth nature of the series I did last month on the mythical championship contenders, Stassen.com's preliminary preseason consensus makes a great case for compromise:

The Buckeyes' hold on the top spot holds up even if you include some of the earlier top 25 polls from mainstream sites on the Web, though those ballots were much more likely to settle on Georgia as No. 1 than the magazines are, and the Cocktail Party winner is the favorite in general. Either way, it seems everybody's expecting three winner-take-all Armageddon games: Ohio State-USC, Georgia-Florida and Oklahoma-Missouri in the Big 12 Championship, which must be an unprecedented triptych of cataclysmic showdowns for a single season. This regular season really does look like a playoff, if not for, uh, all those other games getting in the way.
But if the favorites hold serve, oh, the drama! The bitching! Would that we could only hope...
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God, Steele is confusing
I mean, I understand the basics of his point about putting Georgia 9th, but it just feels wrong. 9th? Really? Georgia is the 9th best team in the country? I mean, we’re obviously all grasping at straws when trying to rank teams that haven’t yet played a game, but Georgia as the 9th best team in the country? That’s a pretty strong statement. I can see Georgia ending the season at #9 (a loss to FL and LSU, with no SEC Championship game appearance), but I can’t think of 4 teams that are for sure better than Georgia to start the season.
Florida is at best questionable, since we’re guessing that their defense will be better. Ohio St., you have a realistic point with arguing for being better on the returning talent alone. USC, they’re replacing their QB, and have gotten dramatically less out of their wide receivers in recent years than they did in the heyday. Oklahoma, they’ve got a great OL and DL, but they lost some good players and didn’t really play well away from Norman last year at times. All those things make for reasonable arguments for placing certain teams ahead of Georgia, but really, are we going to go as far as to say that Georgia couldn’t beat West Virginia (try and see if they aren’t prepared going in to that game)? Or Missouri? I think Georgia matches up considerably well with both of those teams, as they do with teams like Auburn (who they’ve beaten two years in a row now and who is replacing their starting QB, and both their offensive and defensive coordinators) and LSU (breaking in either a redshirt freshman or a junior transfer from Harvard at QB). How many teams can we realistically say start the season with a better team than Georgia? 4-5 at most.
What worries me most as a Georgia fan is that Steele’s usually right, however. I mean, he’s where he is because he does so much work (a distinction I might say SMQ also receives) and is usually so right. I hate to think that with a team like they’ve got, Georgia is that easy to throw into the bottom of the top 10. People complain about SEC teams and not playing tough non-conference schedules, but if Georgia’s getting counted out because of their schedule, then maybe Vince Dooley’s method of staying in the South was right! I mean, Ohio St. managed to make it to a national title game with a marque game of Miami of Ohio last season(this is obviously not a dig at Ohio St., who has scheduled much harder teams over the course of the last couple years and just seemingly got lucky last season, however, it’s a point that I felt needed to be made). Maybe scheduling the Oregon’s and Arizona St.’s of the world isn’t really the best bet for teams like Georgia, who seemingly could have ridden the much easier schedule of Florida to considerable pre-season feelings of inevitability.
I hate to think that, however. Because really, we’re all going to watch that ASU/UGA game, just like we’ll all watch USC/Ohio St.
by blackertai on Jun 5, 2008 5:49 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Why are you high on Georgia?
And I don’t mean that to be sarcastic. I’m literally asking what makes you believe Georgia should be a preseason Top 3 team.
I think they’ve gotten a ton of mileage out of their end of season run after the inexplicable Tennessee loss, in particular the wins over Florida and Auburn. But look at some of those games more closely. A 3-point win over Vandy (at the end no less). They were outgained by Troy at home in a 10-point win. They were behind with 5 minutes or so left in the 3rd against Auburn (in a game they won by 25).
This isn’t to take anything away from UGA. A win is a win is a win, no matter how it comes about. But I think Steele looks a lot farther beyond perception than your average football fan and if you discount that end of year run, what’s left? Another good SEC team with a brutal schedule.
by DoubleB on Jun 5, 2008 8:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Discount?
Help me understand why you’re willing to discount a 7-game winning streak including 6 over bowl-eligible teams.
To answer some of your questions:
-While we were outgained by Troy, we also played our 2nd teamers for a good part of the 2nd half. Part of the reason Georgia was able to go on the 7-game streak is because it built and conditioned depth over the course of the season. This is one of the signatures of Mark Richt; he empasizes depth over running up the score.
-You’re really holding being down by a FG early in the 2nd half against a top-25 team against the Dawgs? As you noted, it ended up a laugher. Having been in Sanford Stadium that night, I can tell you that it never once felt like Auburn had any sort of control in that game despite the temporary lead change. Brandon Cox will forever have nightmares of the UGA secondary.
by Hobnail_Boot on Jun 7, 2008 11:02 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
UGA
Where would you rank them preseason? Are you sold on Matt Stafford, a guy with marginal numbers for a very good running attack? I’m not and that’s why I would put them lower (9th does seem unusually low and I haven’t read Steele’s magazine so I don’t know why he put them there).
And just to clarify Richt was playing 2nd teamers in the 4th quarter when Troy cut the lead to 7? Georgia pulled away late and I can envision him playing them with five minutes left, but let’s not pretend that wasn’t a game in the 4th quarter.
48 of 65 BCS teams were bowl-eligible. Let’s not treat the victories over Kentucky and Georgia Tech as really impressive. They were favored in both games and won both of them.
by DoubleB on Jun 7, 2008 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Steele
Phil Steele makes his rankings based off of his 6 computer models. And yes, he’s the most accurate according to Stassen, but here’s some highlights from his 2007 preseason rankings (which won the most accurate award):
5. Michigan
7. Louisville
8. FSU
10. Penn St.
13. South Carolina
15. Ohio St.
17. Alabama
20. Texas A&M
27. Miami (FL)
41. Auburn
43. Illinois
There’s more strangeness than that, but keep in mind that while Phil is the most accurate, it’s not like he’s spot-on or anything.
by Year2 on Jun 5, 2008 8:53 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Preseason Curiosities
You have to admire how firmly the Ohio State backlash has already cemented itself in the minds of many. No one putting together a preseason ranking can deny that tOSU could be the best team, but few of them have had the gumption to actually say the Buckeyes are the best. No matter what the evidence indicates, they just can’t be the best can they? It has to be USC, or Oklahoma, or an SEC team. Depending on how this season plays out Ohio St. could go wire-to-wire as No. 2.
Also when you consider how difficult it is to judge teams this far before the season, it stuns me that these magazines generally tend to coalesce around a few ideas that become the new conventional wisdom. Last year the whole season was supposed to build to a USC v. LSU championship game (um, almost). As is already noted Steele and others bought into a number of things that seem laughable now. Michigan and Louisville in the top ten. SoCarolina as a factor in the SEC. Miami on the margins of the ranked teams. It could be that Steele is just the proverbial one eyed man in the land of the blind.
Now 3 months of football can make a lot of predictions look dumb, but more than the inaccuracy of some predictions, what strikes me is the near unanimity with which many reasonable people will line up behind them. I am certain they have their reasons, but given how much is unknowable at this point each year, shouldn’t the predictions vary more widely?
My infrequent but lengthy writings about college football are at The Captain of History.
by capnhistory on Jun 5, 2008 11:08 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Slow down there, cowboy.
Preseason magazines are all about selling copies on newsstands. They don’t have to be right, just glossy and entertaining enough to keep being bought. If that means underselling Ohio State, then so be it. If that means putting Ohio State at the top, then so be it. Only Phil Steele doesn’t think in these terms, and that’s because he’s a robot.
If you’ve read the national columnists, you’d know there’s not really a Buckeye backlash. Maybe with local guys, but not the national guys. When the AP, Coaches’, and Harris polls come out, Ohio State will be no lower than 2, and I’ll eat my hat if an undefeated Ohio State never hits #1.
by Year2 on Jun 6, 2008 9:16 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Last year was 2005?
Blackertai,
Ohio State did not play Miami U last year. The marquee OOC game was supposed to be Washington, to finish a home and home from 2003. Washington wasn’t too bad back then. Ohio State has commited to playing a top tier OOC opponent every year for the not so near future. Home and homes from now thru 2019: USC, U of Miami (Fla), Cal, Va. Tech, , Oklahoma, Tennessee. Throw in Texas and you’ve got 6 teams that have played in a BCS title game, with 5 champions. Can anyone name another team that’s doing that? It’s a gamble, but it may become necessary in the BCS system. If a team that’s probably going to be in the top 15 every year has a chance to beat another top team early, that’s gonna give them about a 5 place surge in the standings and a quality win before Oct. Chances are if they win out, they’ll be in the top 2, having a good tie-breaker argument. Yes, OSU does like to play instate schools to help them out financialy, and there aren’t any big teams outside of Columbus. Anyone outside of Louisiana who’s still whining about OSU’s schedule last year should ask themselves why their teams choked. (not directed at you, blackertai, just an observation) Most Buckeye fans would have been more than happy playing USC in the Rose Bowl. We were ranked 7th after the Michigan game. It’s not our fault everyone ahead of us laid an egg.
by generaladm on Jun 5, 2008 11:33 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

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