Now, Tommy, Things Get Interesting
Almost everybody making money on the matter thinks Clemson will win the ACC Atlantic, at least, and probably the conference, since the same people seem to think the Tigers are destined for the top ten:

Doug at Hey Jenny Slater took a more expansive look at all the preseason rankings floating around and found the same thing: through a dozen mainstream polls, the Tigers came out at No. 8. Doug –– and certainly he’s reflecting a huge portion of general opinion here –– thought that reflected badly on the ACC more than it did positively on Clemson:
By contrast, the ACC -- with three teams in the top 25 and one more receiving votes -- looks like it's still going to struggle in its attempts to be taken seriously as a football superconference. Let's put it this way -- when your standard-bearer is a Tommy-Bowden-coached Clemson team, you're probably not ready for The Show just yet. The Tigers, incidentally, are pretty consistently pegged in the high single digits to low teens across the board, but let's be honest, most of us have heard this song before.
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We have, but not for a few years: the Tigers haven’t been ranked in the top 15 overall since 2000, Bowden’s second season. What Doug’s reflecting is the widespread notion (spread by my own commenters) that Clemson has regularly underachieved. Which is true, to an extent:

* Preseason rank based on Stassen Preseason Conesensus
** In games w/ line greater than +/– 3, based on Phil Steele listings; N/A for 1999-2000
*** Arbitrary, but generally: games w/ final margin 2X greater than line
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Clemson has regularly underachieved, the last three years it began the season in the polls. This takes different forms –– the team collapsed in ‘01 (2-5 following a 4-1 start) and ‘06 (four losses in last five after a 7-1 start) but had to rally to salvage Bowden’s job in ‘03 (win in five of the last six, including over No. 3 FSU and No. 6 Tennessee in the Peach Bowl) and scrape into a bowl game in ‘05 (six wins in the last seven, the only loss by one point, after losing two overtime games in September).
But Bowden’s teams have just as often overachieved, based on preseason expectations. Measured in terms of winning the conference championship, "underachievement" is not the criticism when the team has never been expected to achieve a conference championship –– that crown belongs to Florida State, which has been picked by the vast majority of polls to top the conference or division every year since it joined the ACC, even after its run of immutable dominance ended in 2001, and even though Tommy has taken four of the last five from Papa Bobby. In the big picture, the real criticism for Clemson is "inconsistency." It regularly wins games it’s not supposed to win, sometimes by wide margins –– think of the nighttime beatdown it put on Georgia Tech in ‘06, two weeks after beating eventual conference champ Wake Forest on the road –– but there’s no question it’s also lost too many games in the last two years it was not supposed to lose, and can’t lose if it’s going to be a player: two straight to Virginia Tech, three straight to Boston College, three out of four to Georgia Tech, with scattered slip-ups against Maryland, Wake and even Duke since 2005. The blow fourth quarter lead against B.C. with the Atlantic title on the line last November, at home, was a handy summary for the ‘choke’ narrative.

What’s holding Clemson back? Nothing it can't break through.
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This team has easily the highest expectations of the Bowden era, and is probably the most talented, based on the marked improvement in recruiting over the last three years. That stems directly from beating Florida State on a consistent basis and contributes to sustaining the cycle, and the biggest difference between this outfit and its predecessors is that it’s finally supposed to be better than FSU –– significantly better, in fact, since FSU’s stock has fallen to the point that even Wake Forest is projected in front of the ‘Noles by most of the polls so far. Clemson is the big, fast team the league needs to fill the post-FSU power vaccum. It’s easy to sympathize with the pundits on personnel alone: nobody who watched the Tigeres run out in front of Florida State in the first half last Labor Day can doubt that they look the part now, athletically, and on paper. The defense finished in the top ten nationally in scoring and total defense, with the entire (probably entirely NFL-bound) secondary and three-fourths of the starting line back and one-time recruiting freak Ricky Sapp moving into the Gaines Adams/Phillip Merling role off the edge. The offense is frighteningly balanced: for all the attention heaped on the running backs, the Tigers ran 300 times and passed 300 times in ACC games, and were only slightly run-oriented in the neck-and-neck games with South Carolina and Auburn. Cullen Harper led the ACC in passing efficiency, and threw less than a third of the interceptions Matt Ryan did (at least some people think Harper can be a Ryan-like pro prospect). Aaron Kelly led the league in receiving and passed up the NFL.
But balance is not a substitute for consistency. Clemson prefers to run, and when it does, the results are obvious: in nine wins last year, the Tigers averaged 202 yards per game on the ground, compared to 69 yards in four losses, at more than double the per-carry average. The fruits of those efforts are evident in Harper’s stats: his touchdown:interception ratio in wins was a terrific 28 TDs to 2 INTs; in losses, when Harper threw far more often, it was two scores to four picks. Three new offensive linemen means James Davis and C.J. Spiller are destined to run into a few walls. What happens to Harper then? Woody Dantzler didn’t have the defense; Charlie Whitehurst didn’t have the running game; Will Proctor didn’t have the arm. Harper has the whole package. Bowden, probably for the first time, has the whole package –– Clemson should win the ACC. That you haven’t heard before. Depending on how it goes with the ‘consistency’ thing, you may be hearing it for most of the next decade, or else not again for the forseeable future.
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I thank thee for the link
That second chart of yours was highly edifying—Bowden’s Clemson teams entered the season out of the top 25 five times, and three times they were in it by season’s end; meanwhile, they entered four seasons ranked, and each time came out ranked lower than they were going in (three times they finished the season unranked period).
The Reader’s Digest version of this, then, would seem to be that under-the-radar = good for Tommy B.’s teams, while high preseason expectations = disaster . . . and that does not bode well for 2008.
by Doug G. on Jun 19, 2008 5:26 PM EDT 0 recs
I recently ran some stats on Tommy Bowden’s record at Clemson, broken down by venue, by the quality of the opponent, and split into first half/second half of the season. The tables are here if anyone is interested.
He’s only had a winning record in both the first and second half of the year twice, 2003 and 2007, but 2006 was the only year he’s had a losing record in the second half. That’s greatly aided by going 7-2 versus South Carolina, no doubt the main reason why he’s still employed after 9 years of not winning the conference.
by Year2 on Jun 19, 2008 6:11 PM EDT 0 recs
I don't agree
Why is winning the conference championship the standard? Clemson’s won eight games four of the last five years and has been in the running for a couple conference championships, which it never was in the 90s—this is not the kind of program that can take for granted a coach who wins eight on a regular basis. Only four schools have won the ACC since he’s been hired: FSU, Virginia Tech and Maryland and Wake Forest in their moonshot years, and Bowden has a better ACC record than Ralph Friedgen or Jim Grobe overall. Clemson is second to FSU in overall winning percentage since ‘99. Its recruiting has picked up markedly since 2005. It seems it’s only a matter of time.
by SMQ on
Jun 19, 2008 6:39 PM EDT
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Go deeper
But if you look at Clemson’s history - they’re still the winningest ACC team (in terms of ACC championships) - they can easily take an eight-win coach for granted and even despise him for not succeeding as their history has shown. It’s surprising to me how much bile there is for Bowden among many Clemson fans. Think of them as Notre Dame light.
by Alaska Hokie on
Jun 20, 2008 3:40 AM EDT
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It's the 21st Century
Nothing in the ACC pre-FSU is relevant. If Clemson fans are holding Bowden to the standards of the 70s and 80s, that’s their problem. FSU raised the game. And again, Clemson still has a better record under Bowden than any of its old rivals since ‘98. I don’t think they have any grounds to be that spoiled as long as he’s producing an annual winner.
by SMQ on
Jun 20, 2008 7:21 AM EDT
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You're right, SMQ . . .
. . . but try telling that to the Clemson faithful.
Although the Bulldogs and the Tigers (regrettably) no longer play each other annually, my formative football years were in an era in which Georgia-Clemson was a regular affair. It’s a natural rivalry, given the straight short shot up I-85 from the Arch to Fort Hill, and it’s a heated one, given the national importance of the battles of the early ‘80s.
Based upon that familiarity, I can tell you that Clemson fans are disgruntled precisely because they are applying the standards of the Danny Ford era, just as we Georgia fans were disgruntled with Ray Goff and Jim Donnan because we were applying the standards of the Vince Dooley era.
Given the rise of the Gators under Steve Spurrier, this probably was unfair; Coach Dooley never had to face Florida teams as consistently good as Coach Spurrier’s squads, the Cocktail Party upset over the No. 1-ranked Saurians in 1985 notwithstanding. Nevertheless, this was the standard.
The same holds true for Clemson fans’ expectations, which are rooted not only in an era before Boston College, Florida State, Miami, and Virginia Tech joined the conference, but are rooted even in an era before Georgia Tech joined the conference and created an exciting, if newly-minted, Peach State/Palmetto State rivalry in the A.C.C.
The point is that fan expectations based upon history can become fixed like flies in amber and become impervious to changes in circumstances. Running off Ken Hatfield because he wasn’t Danny Ford was a foolish thing for the Tiger faithful to do, but the rest of the stumbles of the ‘90s could be attributed to hiring Tommy West, and the rest has been the process of rescuing the program from those dark days.
Does that hold up logically in the minds of neutral outside observers? Of course not, not any more than the firing of Jim Donnan made much sense to folks outside of Bulldog Nation who saw a 40-19 record and four straight bowl wins. The heart wants what it wants, though, and, when a fan base has made up its mind, evidence is superfluous.
I am sure, SMQ, that you find that fact frustrating, but, when tempered by the slightest dash of rationality, it also can be one of the things that makes college football great.
Go 'Dawgs!
by T Kyle King on
Jun 20, 2008 8:34 AM EDT
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Why do we get the spoiled rap?
I am a Clemson fan, and we want to win consistently - don’t all teams? - but why do we get the spoiled label when we are entering year 10 with our coach? Other teams (Ole Miss, Nebraska, Alabama, etc.) have changed coaches like they were changing socks. In 2009 Tommy Bowden will be the second longest tenured coach in Clemson football history, following only Frank Howard. He will have put 22 others behind him on the list.
The truth is, 99% of Clemson fans love Tommy Bowden and are pulling for him to be a winner at Clemson, even though we don’t believe he’s one of the top coaches in the nation. But I love the attention he showed me when I was diagnosed with a serious medical condition. Clemson has a family feel (for a state school) with fewer than 12,000 undergrads, so things like this go a long way. Every Clemson fan has a story similar to mine.
Hatfield was never well-liked. He got run off at Rice. West was well-liked, but you can’t go 3-8 at Clemson with little hope of getting better. Ford was 33 when he won the national championship. He will be drawing social security before this freshman class graduates. Believe it or not Danny is fading into memory as many current players were not born when he was coach.
The one thing in this blog that everyone has missed is that recruiting has improved not because we have beaten FSU, but because of facilities. Clemson had fallen to worse in the league in facilities, and ground was broken in 2004 on extensive upgrades that are still years away from being completely finished. Surprise, surprise…...Clemson’s recruiting turns around in the 2005 class.
by sectionHrowJ on
Jun 20, 2008 10:38 AM EDT
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Am I reading that last paragraph correctly?
So kids in the 2005 class and beyond were blown away by facility upgrades that won’t be completed until long after they leave the program?
I would guess the rise in their recruiting fortunes the past 4 classes (top 20’s) as opposed to the two prior classes (not in top 50) had a lot to do with hiring some really good coaches that recruit (Blackwell-who coordinated the first few years there and Swinney-who’s rated very, very highly as a recruiter).
by DoubleB on
Jun 20, 2008 11:17 AM EDT
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Couple of things...
First, you’re right about the role of recruiters in Clemson’s recent success. We’ve had some good salesmen lately.
Second, don’t underestimate the importance of the facilities uprgrades that ARE completed. The portions of the “West Zone” project that are complete have definitely given our salesmen a better product to sell.
by yup on
Jun 20, 2008 3:52 PM EDT
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To clarify
The Jervey and McFadden Buildings had been recently remodeled at that time, and that helped a lot with the 2005 class. Those buildings are to be turned over eventually to olympic sports. The WestZone is the jaw dropping building on which ground was broken in 2004. Phase II is under construction now and will be completed in 2009. Phase III will begin directly after that. If you don’t think these things wow recruits, you’re kidding yourself. Just for the record, the 2005 class started using the WestZone in their sophomore year, provided they didn’t redshirt, so it’s not like they haven’t benefited from the new building.
by sectionHrowJ on
Jun 20, 2008 11:47 PM EDT
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Recruits are wowed by facilities. And then they go see another place with great facilities. And then another. It has an importance, but it pales in comparison to having great recruiters who can connect with kids and their parents.
USC has average facilities at best—limited practice space, limited meeting rooms, and a stadium that isn’t exactly state of the art. And it matters not one lick because they have Pete Carroll.
Rutgers built up their football facilities in the late 90’s and by the beginning of the decade had the 2nd best facilities in the Big East. And they couldn’t beat ANYONE. They hired Greg Schiano and things started to happen for them (although it took him a few years).
Miami had the worst facilities in the Big East at that time (they may still, but I know they’ve made some changes). Didn’t seem to matter to them too much.
I think facilities have their place and in some instances they might really make a serious difference (Minnesota’s new on campus stadium perhaps). But I’d much rather have the great recruiters who can bring in talented players regardless of the situation.
by DoubleB on
Jun 21, 2008 1:04 AM EDT
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Oregon is a good example of a team that has fantastic facilities (thanks Mr. Knight) and uses them to help the recruiting game.
by gahnki on
Jun 21, 2008 9:15 PM EDT
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How much have those fantastic facilities helped them in recruiting? They built the Casanova Center in 1991, remodeled it in 2007. They built the indoor facility, Mashofsky, in 1998. They renovated Autzen in 2002.
Oregon’s Pac-10 recruiting rankings from 1990-2001:
1990 5th
1991 6th--Casanova opens
1992 5th
1993 8th
1994 10th
1995 6th-post-Rose Bowl year
1996 4th
1997 6th
1998 8th—Moshofsky opens
1999 7th
2000 3rd
2001 9th
To stay consistent, Oregon’s recruiting rankings also in relation to the Pac-10, according to Rivals from 2002 to 2008:
2002 7th--Autzen renovation, post #2 ranking
2003 6th
2004 2nd
2005 5th
2006 9th
2007 2nd—Casanova upgrade
2008 3rd
I don’t see anything consistent with those rankings, which I admit are very raw. But even the overall rankings from 2002 to 2008 are all over the map. They have had two top 20 classes the past two years, but they also had a top 20 in 2004 prior to the Casanova upgrade. In both 2002 and 2006 they ranked 49th.
Don’t get me wrong, I think Nike’s money has been a boon for the program. Anybody who watched the 1980’s Ducks can see that. I don’t know how bad the non-Autzen facilities were in the 80’s. If they were hosting recruits in a leaky closet, then certainly the buildings were needed and made a difference. But the money has also gone into general marketing, coaching salaries, and the recruiting budget as well and to assume that Oregon’s fortunes have risen because of facilities seems to ignore a lot of other inputs and information.
by DoubleB on
Jun 21, 2008 11:04 PM EDT
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That’s incredibly intriguing. I wonder if the trend holds true with other programs as well … where facilities didn’t immediately show a return on the investment. Or, conversely, if a school with great facilities can’t get out of the cellar … Duke, perhaps?
by Alaska Hokie on
Jun 22, 2008 2:19 AM EDT
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I think Virginia Tech’s in store for an 11-3 season this year—Tech will lose at Nebraska, then against Clemson in the ACCCG and then against whoever they play in a bowl game, because Tech always loses bowl games. I like Clemson to win the ACC, and there’s even an outside chance of them making it to the NCG, if only because their conference schedule is a bit easier than most. But as has been said before, you can’t take anything for granted with Clemson.
by Alaska Hokie on Jun 19, 2008 6:20 PM EDT 0 recs
Clemson
They’ve always struck me as a team that should be ranked 20th.
No higher, no lower. Their program just seems to fit right there in the polls. Every week of every year.
by CrossCyed on Jun 21, 2008 1:55 PM EDT 0 recs
IT TAKES TIME
It takes time to build a National contending program that has staying power. It takes a team effort from the President of the University down to the type of individuals the coach decides to recruit. Clemson was dominate in the old ACC but even under todays NCAA
would probably fair worse than Tommy. Tommy may not ever win a national title but will win the ACC (hopefully this year) but he has built a program with staying power with ability to compete on a national level for years to come. He has built a program with intgrity and character and I think this is a reflection of his dad and the values he instilled in his son. Maybe not as talented a coach but with just as much character to build a respected footbal program.
by orangebloodedamerican on Jun 21, 2008 6:45 PM EDT 0 recs






