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Phil's Forecast: U.S. Presidential Election '08


Reps have won 4 of last 6 but Dems are 6-0 in bad economy since 1932.

Since 1932 Dems have just 9 losing POTUS elections, unfortunately five of them came from 1980-2004. McCain came to the Senate in 1991 and Gingrich established Reps as a Senate and HOR power from 1993-2000. They finished #2 in the polls in 2000 losing seats in DE, FL, MI, MN and MO. They led Congress for 24 straight months until they fell out of first in Nov 2002. I did not make many friends in the DP in 2004 when I pointed out that Kerry needed to win OH and that it would be a tough task with a young VP and an anti-gay marriage initiative on the ballot. The election was even worse than expected as they finished #2 in OH and FL and were outgained by 35 electoral votes with the campaign basically giving up down the stretch. That 2004 campaign was –31 in red state turnover and lost NM. The Dems returned 44 incumbents in ‘06 and I said they would have the most improved record of any house in Congress and could actually flirt with a winning season. After losing Lieberman and trailing the Reps by 11 they ended their 13-year losing streak. VHT Dem Obama won IL and was Senate Frosh of the Year. Despite the Surge in Iraq the key was a Rep culture that went from criticizing waste and corruption to getting indicted (Abramof) and justifying authorization of torture (Gonzales), and the Dems’ chances were the best here since 1976 (Wgate!). After knocking off Clinton 27-14 in IA, Barack suffered a tough loss in NH yielding voters over 40 yo but beat HC much worse than the final score indicated on Spr Tues with 13-9 edge in states and 838-826 delegate edge. BO won the next 11 before economy and latent racism did them in vs. HC in TX and OH, a loss that cost them a shot at locking up the nomination. McCain outgained Rep foes by a national best 26 delegates per state and this year actually brings more than the 1,575 listed delegates as he will add 85 superdelegates at the convention. Despite a winning record in the primaries, JM was outgained by $60m in fundraising. Obama does have Rev Wright but has 1m donors and a 4 pt lead in most polls w/ bigger leads in OH and PA. McCain is experienced and a vet but this is a loaded Obama campaign and 6 of my 8 sets of power rankings call for BO to become the first AfAm POTUS.

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Turn to page 322 for MORE information than was provided on the individual pages!

WARNING: This page is for Hardcore Fans ONLY. If you need MORE information than was provided on the individual pages. For those of you who wanted more information in this year’s magazine, on this page we will feature some information that just wouldn’t fit!!!!!!!!! You’ve Come to the right spot!
MIKE GRAVEL D AK Gravel’s CRZY was known for excellence as well as a fair share of rocks. They finished #33 in my LOL rankings in ‘06 but had to replace their top ZNY, FNY and ROFL and finished a respectable #68 in his final throws in ‘07.

by WorstFan on Jun 18, 2008 5:13 PM EDT   0 recs

This might be one of the greatest things I've ever read.

Satire at its finest.

http://www.RockMNation.com
Chance McDanielson for Heisman

by rptgwb on Jun 18, 2008 5:38 PM EDT   0 recs

Very funny, but....

the font size was too big.

by everloyal on Jun 18, 2008 5:43 PM EDT   1 recs

McCain...

...was elected to the Senate in 1986 and R’s fell out of first in Senate in June 2001 with the transfer of Jeffords to DP. Wins in MI and MN in 2002 enabled them to rise to the top of the polls until 2006 showdown which made Hawaii in last year’s Sugar Bowl look creditable.

The above predantry aside pretty brilliant stuff.

by marcillac on Jun 18, 2008 6:32 PM EDT   0 recs

A heartbreaking work of staggering genius

The “I did not make many friends in the DP” line about Kerry goes beyond regular brilliant to some sort of fourth dimension of brilliant. Thank you, sir.

by JCCW Jerry on Jun 18, 2008 8:02 PM EDT   0 recs

Concur

Just beyond brilliant.

Go Vols!

by Joel on Jun 19, 2008 7:28 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Democrats in the title election AGAIN?

Democrats have lost the last two championship elections and it’s quite clear that as a Northern-based party they don’t have the voter-turnout speed that Republicans do. In fact, if the current polling system wasn’t so Midwest biased the REAL election would be between McCain and Huckabee.

Obama is a good candidate, don’t get me wrong, but he just didn’t face the caliber of competition that the Republicans did, week-in and week-out. Even though Obama won the Democratic nomination, it’s time the pollsters recognize that the Democrats just aren’t what they’re used to be and that the balance of power has shifted.

I know this makes me look like a biased GOP fan but facts are facts. Do the Democrats need to get whipped a third time in the championship election before we get some other more deserving candidates in there? If ever we need a playoff election, it’s now.

by Montague on Jun 18, 2008 8:12 PM EDT   1 recs

Well, I'm sorta seeing a resemblance between

Elections ‘00 and ‘04 and Oregon-Oklahoma, if you catch my drift.

Coach/Butthol '09: We shall overcome.

by butthol on Jun 18, 2008 8:49 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

If you didnt get

that I’m an Ohio State fan I utterly failed. And yes I signed up just to add my pathetic attempt at comedy.

by Montague on Jun 19, 2008 1:35 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I'm an Oregon fan

Just the parallel was quite clear there, no matter where your fanhood.

Coach/Butthol '09: We shall overcome.

by butthol on Jun 19, 2008 1:43 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Obama's...

...comprehensive brilliance as a candidate has perhaps been somewhat overstated. He’s got a rocket arm, can throw it 95 yards from his knee and drill it into a dimesized opening from 35 yards across his body. However, he barely knows the playbook and has and contiunes to demonstrate some horrendous judgement. The very narrow (by the standards of conventional challangers in recent elections) lead that he has reflects that.

However, the voters are dying to give the Heisman to the hot new QB and team McCain has a lot of injrued veterans, abysmal playcalling and shitty facilities.

On balance Phil/SMQ’s forecast would seem to be quite as insightful and as the satire is rapierlike.

by marcillac on Jun 18, 2008 9:12 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Very very sorry...

...I meant The Trophy Which Should Not be Named, of course. Its a quarter past 3 here and while I have insomnia I’m hardly wide awake.

by marcillac on Jun 18, 2008 9:16 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Obama = Tim Tebow?

Coach Owens = A Chosen Cow.

by butthol on Jun 20, 2008 2:20 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Agree...

...It is that Republican speed that is the difference in the MNE! They are just faster in red states!

by Kenny483 on Jun 19, 2008 10:49 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Dem conf is weak

Don’t forget the Dems were just a 2 candidate party this year. All the Pre polls had HRC and BHO finishing 1 and 2 in that conf, that it was BHO #1 and HRC#2 isn’t surprising. Compare that to JMc’s sched TY. He got RG, at MR, at MH, and a very good RP (Paul proj as my #3 Surprise Cand going into 2008), add to that quality cands like Brownback and Hunter and you can see the depth of the GOP. Even with a disappointing performance by early season dark horse Thompson, the GOP rate #1 in my Top 3, Top 5, Top 8 and overall party rankings.
Also BHO may have won a lot of primaries SU but look at states that could bring pressure w/ WrkClass Whts. He only went 2-8 ATS. (Check in with philsteele.com each week for my list of misleading election results so you can know which candidates are underrated and overrated during the season.) Look for JMc to play to that in the MNE.
Until the Dems play a winner take all round robin like the GOP or instill a party championship election, there will be doubts about the Dem nom in the general

Just remember we all still love you Phil. And kudos to SMQ, brilliant stuff

My infrequent but lengthy writings about college football are at The Captain of History.

by capnhistory on Jun 19, 2008 3:41 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

SMQ's always doing good stuff

But this really takes the cake.

Most satisfying piece of satire I’ve read in a long, long time.

A++

--PB--

by PB @ BON on Jun 19, 2008 12:34 AM EDT   0 recs

Oh god, it's SO REAL

Which is the best compliment one can hand out when comparing to Steele, I suppose…

by Holly on Jun 19, 2008 3:44 AM EDT   0 recs

Begins. . .

. . . slow clap.

http://www.rakesofmallow.com

by CW on Jun 19, 2008 7:37 AM EDT   0 recs

Illnois vs. Arizona

My question is; does this end like the Rose Bowl? You know, everyone talks about how well the Big Ten school will do, then the Pac-10 school destroys them. Or is it like basketball, when the Pac-10 can’t play a physical game and the Big Ten grinds out a win?

mlmintampa
UF C/O 06

by mlmintampa on Jun 19, 2008 9:11 AM EDT   0 recs

Is JMc the Big Ten?

Coach Owens = A Chosen Cow.

by butthol on Jun 20, 2008 2:19 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I swear...

I saw this in the “Only for Diehard Fans” section of the Phil Steele’s book.

Priceless…

by lawvol98 on Jun 20, 2008 3:31 PM EDT   0 recs

WOW!

Funniest blog entry I’ve ever read. One hundred whiskey sours to SMQ.

by The Power T on Jun 20, 2008 5:02 PM EDT   0 recs

This is

Pure Gold!

by Mad.Mike on Jun 20, 2008 10:34 PM EDT   0 recs

ladies and gentlemen...

...your 2009 cfba blog entry for 2009 has just been posted.

by kleph on Jun 22, 2008 7:03 PM EDT   0 recs

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