I Was Wondering...
Here's a meta, philosophical question out of the break: what are we refering to, exactly, when we say a player or a team is 'consistent'?
This is basically asking, 'What makes a player good?' since, once they reach a certain level, every athlete is physically capable of carrying out his assignment, or occasionally going beyond that. I was thinking about this when comparing a couple of very similar players for a post that might go up later today. Virtually the same skill set, the same capacity for success, but one guy is "consistent," the other guy isn't. The difference in this case is probably something like a 70-75 percent success rate vs. a 60-65 percent success rate. Both guys are good a majority of the time. So what is the difference?
Even the worst players make good plays; even the best players make bad ones. Sometimes the relatively mediocre guys do amazing things at the expense of players who are usually, by any objective measure over a long period of time, 'better' players.
Is this just a random burst of the split-second combination of firing synapses, fast-twitching muscles and hand-eye coordination, or is it `clutch'? Did David Tyree just find himself in the right place at the right time, facing the same long odds of making the play that any other person with the physical and mental skill set to become a pro wide receiver would have faced under the same circumstances? Or is there something inherent about his mind or body that increased the odds he would make the catch?
If success is the former, a totally random act, why do some players - Joe Montana, Tom Brady, Robert Horry - find themselves performing those acts so much more often than others? If it's the latter, some inherent trait in the individual, what is it? Could it be identified on a brain scan (if such things actually existed)? If not, then what do you think you're talking about?
This doesn't just go for the extraordinary plays. Since the question is really about consistency, apply it to the every-down routine: why do the same guys make blocks sometimes and miss them other times, catch difficult passes sometimes and drop easy balls other times, make perfect breaks on an out route sometimes and get completely burned other times? And why do some players - sometimes the guys with obvious physical advantages, sometimes not - succeed a much greater percentage of the time than others? Is there any actual difference in the .265 hitter and the .305 hitter?

Sometimes, this game makes no sense.
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Beyond that, the physical and mental level of the vast majority of players is roughly equal. On any given play, unless the physical disparity is extreme, there's no way to tell which player or which team will `win' that specific play. What varies is the consistency of their performance over a large number of plays, the odds that a player or a team will be more successful a greater percentage of the time. Assuming everyone has talent and everyone is running his wind sprints, what is that? Strategy? Uh, "moxie"? Explain.
Just something I think about whenever I'm about to write 'Player X isn't special, physically, he's just consistent.' I know what I mean based on the results, but the notion of "consistency" as a cause, as a trait that leads to results, does not exactly compute. Consistency is an effect. But of what? This is the territory of psychologists and neuro surgeons, I guess, and most people probably don't want to know the answer. If there is one. But there must be an answer, because otherwise...it's random, right? And it's not random - if it was, all the records over time would be the same. I dunno. Maybe I'm listening to too much Radio Lab.
Also: Tim Tebow MD spent time this spring circumcising some Filipino kids, whose genitalia will be heretofore worshiped as a golden gift from heaven by the most fertile women of the land. That is all.
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Multiple Answers
One is timing. If Robert Horry misses a potential game-winning shot against Milwaukee in December, no one remembers. If he does make that shot in the playoffs, he becomes legend. I'd be interested to see his all-time record on potential game winning/game tying shots in both the regular and post season. Maybe he just takes a lot more shots in that situation because he's always been on good teams.
Part of it is also innate talent. Some guys have better hand-eye coordination. Some guys have quicker feet. Those types of things can be taught and practiced to a certain degree, but that won't replace having innate talent. Another basketball analogy is Shaq - in his prime he was the nimblest big man in the game despite letting himself go every offseason while the Ewings and Duncans were doing intensive workouts. It wasn't training and practice, it's just that he had something the others didn't.
Another part of it is preparation. Jerry Rice is the best receiver ever in large part because he worked the hardest at it. Michael Jordan had boatloads of talent, but no one outworked him. Robert Horry has been a serviceable player - he's averaged 10+ PPG only three times and not since 1996 - but he has practiced shooting threes enough that it's an automatic motion for him.
Bill James has tried to dispel the notion of a clutch hitter, though he has admitted that David Ortiz gives him trouble in that regard. Horry or fellow clutch shooter Steve Kerr appeared in every finals between 1994 - 2003. That would speak to the mental toughness aspect.
Some of it is randomness too. After all the smaller, slower, less prepared guy wins sometimes. Still, even in March Madness (perhaps the most notorious venue for upsets and chaos), the champion has come from outside the top three seeds only 3 or 4 times in the 23 tournaments since 1985 when the field expanded to 64 teams.
by Year2 on May 5, 2008 4:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Re:
by Red Blooded on May 5, 2008 11:21 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
You should start reading Fire Joe Morgan
Joe Morgan loves him some consistency, and the FJM high council has been emotionally groin punching him for ages because of how much (and how awfully) he uses the term. I think this is an excellent illustration of a problem that leads to (over)usage of the term: people wanting to say something about a guy but lacking the ability (for whatever reason) to say it. So they fall back on something that is knowable and easy to understand, and consistency is one of those fall back terms. And since everybody uses it and it's a sound-bite culture, it's an easy thing to fall back on.
That's not to say that the term shouldn't be used. By the mainstream media, at least, it should be used less.
by peacedog on May 6, 2008 12:36 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
The Buffalo Bulls were D-Is most consistent team
As the famous motivational poster says, "Consistency is only a virtue if you're not a screwup."
http://www.despair.com/consistency.html
by Calvert on May 6, 2008 1:16 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Perhaps for some the "game slows down"?
Think about it this way. For any sport where split-second decision-making is crucial, the brain's ability to integrate information is probably more important to performance than the body's ability to respond, because everyone's body is in tip-top shape. The difference is that those whose brain is working faster see the game "slow down" and make better decisions. That means that while their body may be slower, they find ways to be sure they're in the right place at the right time, because the speed at which their brain responds closes the gap.
There are a lot of people who make it to the big time that are "too small" or "too slow" or whatever. Drew Brees. Doug Flutie. Emmitt Smith. Spud Webb. Possession receivers. But they bridge the gap. There has to be an explanation for it, and I think that explanation is mental. On the smaller scale, as to why a physically "average" player can dominate a physically gifted player may have the exact same explanation. The especially physically gifted players make up for their lack of mental toughness with their body's ability. The especially mentally gifted players make up for their lack of physical gifts with their brain. And those who are gifted in both ways (Michael Jordan, as an example) absolutely dominate everyone.
by Brad Warbiany on May 7, 2008 2:03 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Buck
No emotion on that play. It was one of the most incredible plays in history and we are stuck with that as the call.
by gahnki on May 7, 2008 8:14 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Consistency in the NFL
Of course I could go deeper into the analysis and weight the numbers based on the end of year rankings of each team rushing defenses, or even construct and test models to predict the likely rushing output of a given running back. If the model is significant and useful, then you have yourself a consistent player.
Obviously the psychological aspects are difficult to gauge, and there just aren't comprehensive statistics for many defensive positions. Regardless, there is a wealth of information hiding in the numbers, as you have well shown in the past.
by Laughing Stock on May 8, 2008 12:40 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

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