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It Can't Happen Here, If You Don't Let It.

One of my favorite moment in sports is, against all odds, the "deuce" in tennis. Not the physical act of hitting a flourescent ball over a net, which I find about as exciting as a city zoning meeting, or the fact that the academy that never recognized Stanley Kubrick has nominated Norbit for one its trade union awards, but the sort of competitive purity in the concept. You can't win unless you really win, by two points - no flukes, no games determined by a single sketchy bounce. A one-point difference can be a coincidence; a two-point difference is decisive.

Because I talk about playoffs so much, and about the competitive necessity of a playoff to determine a "true" champion, and about just what we mean by "champion," anyway, I sometimes try to apply the certainty of the "deuce" concept to a football season, without much success. Games can't be scheduled, re-scheduled and cancelled until one team decisively breaks away; logistical necessity rejects anything like the deuce model in tennis for a football season, and ensures certain idiosyncracies and compromise will define whatever system it does embrace. Neither concession to the impossibility of perfection derails the pro-playoff argument - no matter what, nominal champion (or "championship game") by opinion poll should never be acceptable - but the Giants' victory over the previously far, far superior Patriots does shine a fat spotlight on both in a playoff context. As I've said before, a six-loss wild card team that finished three games behind the regular season champion of its own division cannot by any concept or definition prove itself superior to the team that finished the season undefeated. In the context of determining the "best" or "better" team, one game can be a fluke; one game, as we see over and over in every sport, proves nothing, especially when another game (as in the Patriots' win over the Giants in the regular season finale) directly contradicts it. A six-game difference, on the other hand, which New England brought into the Super Bowl, is decisive. Or should be.

A playoff that so clearly negates the regular season is, as Kyle King maintains, preposterous, and the NFL now has to live for the next year with the fact that its "champion" did not come close to winning its own division and finished with a substantially worse overall winning percentage even after the playoffs (.700) than four other teams (New England, Indianapolis, Dallas and Green Bay). Even if you give New York a one-game "credit" for beating three of those teams in the playoffs - thus ignoring that it also lost to the same three teams in the regular season - the Giants are at least two games back of all four.

The "hot team" argument (i.e., the undermining of the regular season) is the strongest challenge against a playoff in college football, and the lesson of the Giants' playoff run - as well as that of the Marlins, Cardinals, NC State basketball, Arizona basketball, etc. in other sports - is that the NCAA or whatever organizing body eventually takes on a bracket at the I-A level must keep the standards high. In some regards, major college football is much better situated to this sort of playoff than any other sport, because multiple losses, even as few as two or three, will be enough to eliminate most teams in a six or eight-team bracket, and whatever gap exists between the teams that do make the cut will be small enough to close in the playoff itself - I'll note again (as I did here) that college equivalent of this year's Giants, with a worse regular season record than 18.75 percent of the league, would never meet this standard; an eight-team playoff would represent only the top 6.7 percent of 120 I-A teams. There aren't enough games in the regular college season to allow one team to race that far ahead of the pack.

It's worth noting, too, that the problem of a "hot team" winning a championship is exceedingly rare: including the 2001 Patriots, who finished two games behind the vanquished Rams, the Giants are only the second Super Bowl champion in 42 years to end the year with a multi-game gap behind the league's best post-playoff record.

Still, they're an example, a warning: a playoff that wants to maintain maximum legitimacy (that is, justice, fairness, etc.) has to be selective about who it lets in. The regular season is a precious commodity; the inevitable temptations of "playoff creep" are preferable to voting for a champion, which defies the fundamental nature of competition, but the merely above average, distant division/conference runner-up doesn't deserve its place at the table. No riffraff, please.

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On Kubrick
SMQ, Kubrick won an Academy Award, for "Best Special Visual Effects" or something similar, for 2001.  

The strange thing about that is that my understanding is that Kubrick did not even work on the visual effects for 2001, but since neither of the people who did could agree on who should get top billing, Kubrick listed himself instead, even though he had nothing to do with it.  

And the part that will make you put your head in the oven is that the winner of the Academy Award for Best Director that year didn't go to the director of the movie that is often regarded as the dividing line between the classic and modern eras of cinema, but instead to the director of a rather average musical--Carol Reed, for Oliver!  

Hell, I could have handled his losing to Pontecorvo for La Battaglia di Algeri, but not to that shit.  

by Solon on Feb 4, 2008 1:51 AM EST   0 recs

breadth of playoffs
I put a couple of comments on the subject on DawgSports that I won't reproduce here.

Long story short: NFL playoffs aren't especially selective - you'd need to have in the region of 44 teams for a Div IA playoff to be as indiscriminate. The Giants being in the Superbowl isn't an argument against playoffs, it's an argument against wide open playoff pools.

Also, if some degree of winning in a regular season is required to get into a playoff, then in what form or fashion does a playoff diminish the regular season? It does so only to the extent that misplaced self-esteem experiments / grubby commerce dictate a larger pool of playoff candidates.

by DC Trojan on Feb 4, 2008 10:52 AM EST   0 recs

Pretty Good Stuff
I posted on a similar topic http://www.thecollegefootballreview.com/?p=79.

I mostly agree with one exception. 120 teams do not compete for the natty. It's more like 35-40 each year. And 8 in a playoff makes about 20%. Way too high IMO...start with the plus one (a 4 team playoff). That's plenty, especially when the season is only 11 or 12 games.

by TCFRDave on Feb 4, 2008 11:49 AM EST   0 recs

There's a question that needs begging here
maybe it is the case that only 35-40 teams compete for the national championship on any given year under the current system (which all but precludes mid majors from competing for same) but the question is: Should only 35-40 teams be competing for a national championship on any given year? What did Boise State fail to do in 2006 that justified their exclusion from competing for a national championship?

If your point is just that the NCAA only fields 35-40 competitive teams a year, then that doesn't mean the rest of the riff-raff isn't competing for a championship, it simply means they tried to do so... and failed. But that's true of every sport, yea? In Week 1 the Dolphins were competing for a National Championship. They failed.

by Red Blooded on Feb 5, 2008 12:19 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

Only 35-40 teams
I think all 60-plus BCS conference teams are eligible for the mythical championship, if they win. Duke or Vanderbilt would get their due if either managed to go undefeated. Re: Boise State, it failed to play a schedule that was even remotely comparable to any team in any BCS conference. A mid-major team that loaded up on the out-of-conference slate (which BSU did not - only Oregon State in the regular season), dominated its conference and gets the chips to fall in its favor would stand a good chance of getting its due. But automatically playing 7-8 games a year against the bottom half of the country, and usually 9-10 such games in practice (as in Boise in 2006, Hawaii in 2007) doesn't hold up against the resumes from the best conferences (if you question the validity of defining the six BCS conferences as the 'best' conferences, remember that teams from the MWC, MAC, C-USA, WAC and Sun Belt lost 87 percent of the time against teams from the ACC, Big East, Big 12, Big Ten, Pac Ten and SEC last year, and won a single game - UL-Monroe over Alabama - over a BCS conference team that finished with a winning record). I would push for Boise and Hawaii to be included in the playoff format, but definitely not the championship game as currently constructed.

The larger point is that, because of the shorter season, there is almost always far less difference from No. 1 to No. 8 in college than in the NFL. The No. 8 team usually finishes the regular season with two losses, three at most, which puts it well within reach of an undefeated or one-loss team.

by SMQ on Feb 5, 2008 1:43 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

Kudos, SMQ
The Giants win consititutes a veritable gold rush for playoff skeptics and in light of your previous comments on the subject I expected you to meet the anticipated protestations head on.  Nice to see that you have done so.  

by marcillac on Feb 4, 2008 1:02 PM EST   0 recs

Just Say No to Playoffs!
Well, even though I am against playoffs in general, I have to agree.  This is an argument against having an excessive amount of teams.

If you want to avoid this, just let conference champions play for the title.  6 plays 11, 7 plays 10, and 8 plays 9 which leaves us with 8 teams.  Re-seed them from there and have your playoff.

Oklahoma and Nebraska got lambasted for being able to participate in the BCS while at the same time not winning the Big 12.  The Giants, over the course of the year, were not as good as the Cowboys or the Patriots and lost a combined 3 times in the regular season to them (did they play the Packers and lose in the regular season?) yet they beat them in the playoffs.  It's similar to a conference championship game rematch.

Go BLUE!

by Eric080 on Feb 4, 2008 7:11 PM EST   0 recs

Doesn't it suggest...
that the "best" team isn't necessarily the one with the better record when all is said and done if the two teams played each other twice and split those games by the exact same margin of victory?

Can there be any question that the Patriots have the better resume? I don't think so. Does the Patriots resume against the Giants prove that they're the better team, would win a majority of games were the two to play 50 times over again (as that is a metric of "betterness" suggested by the deuce example above)?

Perhaps going on wins alone isn't the best measure here. I'd suggest that the Patriots 16-0 is about the most impressive thing I've seen in years, but surely not as impressive when you consider the competition. No division's three worst teams could compete with Buffalo, NYJ, and Miami for sheer inept. Even if you granted them split series with New England, they'd still be 8, 5, and 2 in the wins column, and that'd still be lower than any other division's trash.

The Giants may have only won 10 games, but they did so in a division that did not have a losing team. Don't forget that 12 points separate a 16-0 Patriots team from a 13-3 one that looks a lot like the Cowboys, and two of those close games came against NFC East teams.

I guess where I'm going is that while it is easy to say that the Giants were lucky to beat the Patriots, my response would be that without a bit of luck, the Patriots don't win 16 games, either.

Also: Giants beat convicted cheater Patriots team that could only have happened because of the inclusive nature of the NFL playoffs. Perhaps that's a reason to include non-cheating 2nd tier teams in a postseason so that they can exact vengence against rampant cheater (hyperbole!!!!) 1st tier schools. Sounds good?

by Red Blooded on Feb 5, 2008 12:33 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

Disagree
There's very little difference in NFL schedules. The Patriots beat all three fellow AFC division champions in the regular season, beat the Giants and every team in the NFC East and beat the AFC's No. 4 team (Jacksonville) in the playoffs. You write as if there's something inherent and immutable emanating from New York's being that makes it "the best," and the playoffs exist to prove it. I don't agree at all. The Patriots performed dramatically better than the Giants over the course of the entire season; you're overthinking or plainly dishonest if you argue otherwise.

The point is, if you think of the playoffs as a filter, a team with six losses in 16 games shouldn't be allowed to pass through the same gate to compete for a winner-take-all championship with a team that's lost zero. It's too much of a devaluation of the regular season. If the playoffs are the only proof, and all that matters, why play the regular season at all? Thirty-two teams would make a nice, neat bracket. There has to be a high standard for entry that ensures the playoff teams have roughly comparable resumes or the regular season suffers. As a playoff proponent, I have to concede that and acknowledge the importance of keeping the barrier for entry high.

by SMQ on Feb 5, 2008 1:21 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re:
You write as if there's something inherent and immutable emanating from New York's being that makes it "the best," and the playoffs exist to prove it. I don't agree at all. The Patriots performed dramatically better than the Giants over the course of the entire season; you're overthinking or plainly dishonest if you argue otherwise.
You can't square this with:
Can there be any question that the Patriots have the better resume? I don't think so...
I've already agreed, honestly I'd add, that the Patriots had the better season than the Giants. Does that mean I think the Patriots would beat the Giants 51 times or more if the two played 100 games on neutral territory? I'm saying that I don't know that merely from looking at the Patriots superior regular season resume.

What I'd say about the Giants is that they won a Championship, and this question about who had the best season isn't of interest to nearly as many people as is made out to be. I've never met anyone, face to face, in my entire life, who really cares one way or the other whether the NFL crowns "the best" team in their subjective opinion. I have yet to meet anyone, though we're only a few days removed, who has said that the Patriots season is more or less than the sum of its regular and postseason performance. They were the best regular season team. They were the 2nd best postseason team. Those two things combined make them the best team over the entire season and regular season. They are not the Champions, though.

Many of us don't concern ourselves with reconciling "bestness" with "National Champion". For whatever reason, that's unique to CFB, and it's increasingly something the fans are rejecting.

The answer to your later question, if a 6 loss team can compete, why play the regular season at all? It's first and foremost to weed out the 7 loss teams (or the 9 loss teams, more realistically) and second because it's fun to watch.

I agree generally with your point about limiting access to keep the integrity of the system. An all inclusive playoff is the extreme that really does invalidate completely any reason for a regular season. A system that includes only two teams will likely prevent worthwhile challengers from competing every few years. My definition of "worthwhile challengers" is, I imagine, somewhat lower than yours, but it's somewhat higher than "winless teams" or "everybody". I don't think the NFL is even remotely close to including not "worthwhile challengers" in its formula, and I think the Giants prove the point by winning throughout. To my knowledge a 16th ranked team has never won the NCAA tournament, which tends to suggest that system is too inclusive.

For NFL fans, this was one of the greatest Super Bowls of recent memory. I just don't think that many people are kicking around this week going "it's just so unfair for those poor, poor Patriots not to get crowned champions in spite of their unprecedented 18 win season..." Who cares? 18-1 speaks for itself, it doesn't need a Lombardi Trophy to validate it. NFL fans got a great game, an entertaining upset, and an underdog story of redemption that can be discussed, talked about, and enjoyed for the offseason. CFB got LSU vs. tOSU yeehaw!

by Red Blooded on Feb 5, 2008 2:09 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Entertainment trumps fairness?
I don't want that.

And most people seem to just take whatever's in front of them. People accept a playoff championship as valid and also accept the BCS championship as valid because it's the system in place. Whatever the rules are at the time, "the people" tend overwhelmingly to accept them. That doesn't cut off a discussion of what the rules should be.

For the reasons you mentioned (the uncertainty of the outcome of two teams playing a best-of-99 series), the question of "bestness" can't be reconciled with any certainty, but that shouldn't open the door to teams with wide, obvious gaps in achievement in the regular season. The Patriots were six games better than the Giants in a 16-game season - 60 percent better. One game can't wipe that out for me. I have a problem with an achievement gap that large.

Especially in the NFL, where all the schedules are so similar. College is tailor-made for a playoff, because there are so few (often zero) common points of reference between the top teams.

by SMQ on Feb 5, 2008 4:17 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re:
I don't know what's "unfair" about it to the Patriots. Again, they finish the season as the team with the most compelling record over the course of the combined regular season and postseason, though the latter was won more convincingly by the Giants. They don't get to be named National Champions, though they had an opportunity to do so to a degree unshared by any other team other than the New York Giants.

There is something fundamentally unfair about telling two teams with comparable resumes that the one will get to compete for a national championship and the other will not, especially when that determination is made in secret by the subjective opinion of people.

I agree, though, that what is does not preclude a discussion of what should be.

It sounds like what we disagree about is how inclusive a playoff system should be, since I've always taken you for an advocate of postseasons. I disagree that the Giants were undeserving of participation in this year's NFL playoffs, but that's fine, our disagreement simply reflects what degree I'd be willing to allow teams vs. the more stringent standards I'd imagine you support.

Supposing a 16 team playoff would include, at worse, 8 win teams (I believe that to be a relatively uncontroversial claim) and, at best, 12 win teams, my question to you is whether you could get behind that gap? You say that a Patriots team that won 6 more games than the Giants over the course of a 16 game season (60% better) shouldn't have to play them again to win a championship. What about a 12 win team over an 8 win team (50% better?)? Could you live with a 12-4 National Champion?

I ask because I'm a 16 team playoff advocate. If a 16-0 team shouldn't be playing a 10-6 team, than maybe you also think that a 12-0 team shouldn't be playing an 8-4 team. Related question: has there ever existed an 8-4 team that you think could earn a national championship (fairly?) by going 4-0 in the postseason?

by Red Blooded on Feb 5, 2008 7:06 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Every year
I think any almost top 20 team is capable of getting on a roll and catching the breaks to win four straight games in a playoff. Florida, Auburn, Michigan maybe Texas this year had the talent to make a push if given the opportunity. Any of them would have been more likely than the Giants, I think - Florida and Auburn both had leads at LSU in the final minute, you know.

I do like the idea of restricting a playoff to conference champions (division champions in the NFL) - it doesn't make much sense for a team that didn't win its conference championship to win a national championship. The only automatic conference champion in the ten-year history of the BCS, out of 60 of them, that really stunk up the joint coming in was Pittsburgh in 2004, but that's rare enough to bite the bullet whenever it happens. I'd support at-large bids more for Notre Dame or an undefeated mid-major champion than for a good-looking second place team like Georgia, though teams like UGA and Kansas/Missouri this year would probably wind up benefiting from at-large bids more often in practice.

I do think a 16-team playoff would be better than the BCS. Given the choice, I'd take pretty much any playoff in a second. I'd rather it be restricted to eight or twelve teams, though, ideally.

by SMQ on Feb 5, 2008 11:03 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Similarly
The result of the SB is what I dislike most about conference championship games in college.

Sometimes, Team A and Team B will both be 8-0 (or 7-1 etc.), and in these instances the extra game will nicely wrap the season up with a neat little bow.

However, it's inevitable that occasionally, we'll see Team A (an 8-0 monster that already beat Team B in the regular season) matched up against some 5-3 Team B.  Team B will pull the upset, and the public will think nothing of crowning Team B "champions" of the conference (Wikipedia says this already happened, in the 2001 SEC Tenn-LSU title game).

by pffft on Feb 5, 2008 1:47 PM EST   0 recs

Also happened in 1996, 1998 and 2003
Texas over title-bound Nebraska, Texas A&M over undefeated Kansas State and K-State big over undefeated Oklahoma in the Big 12.

by SMQ on Feb 5, 2008 3:59 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Why?
Why do college football fans think competition is about determining the "best team"?  Who cares if the Giants are not the best team?  This year's Super Bowl matchup was was anamoly. The second unbeaten versus the third five or lower seed.  Besides that, a 16 team college playoff would be equal to a four team NFL playoff.  Furthermore, under the format I favor, 12 qualifiers would have been 10-2 or better.  There would have been four teams with 9-3 or 8-4 records including one wildcard and three nonBCS conference champions. If any of these four were to "just get hot", they would likely have to beat four straight top five opponents including three on the road.  

Also, I think a 16 team playoff is necessary to include all I-A membership in the process.  I'm tired of seeing nonBCS schools being criticized for circumstances dictated by the BCS.  Yes, nonBCS schedules play weaker schedules, but they actually face more parity in and out of conference.  There is a reason BCS unbeatens outnumber nonBCS unbeatens 5 to 1 over the years.  They actually have it easier which is not to say that their resumes should have less value.  Futhermore, the system actually creates no incentive to play strong nonBCS schools.  BCS schools gain financially by playing any weakling at home and any resulting penalty under BCS rules is unknowable and negligible.  Finally, how are nonBCS schools suppose to improve individually and as a group if the system lets recruits know those schools are not even allowed to compete?  Look at what the BCS label has done for Louisville, Cincinnati, South Florida, and Connecticut, in such a short period.  What might some nonBCS schools being able to do with direct access to the playoffs by winning their conference?  Boise State is certainly going to benefit more from five straight WAC titles and subsequent playoff berths than their Fiesta Bowl win.  Anything less than a 16 team playoff with autobids only allows a portion of college football's teams and fans to participate in the most exciting part of any competition........chasing the title.  Even a longshot beats no shot.  

by Scoreboard on Feb 7, 2008 2:40 PM EST   0 recs

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