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Around SBN: Two Minutes Of Thunder Basketball Wins The Game

BLOG POLLIN': OFFICIAL WEEK FOUR BALLOT

Update [2007-9-19 14:11:38 by SMQ]: As promised, notes and justification:

BlogPoll Ballot, Week Four
This is not a power poll.
1. LSU
2. Boston College
3. Florida
4. Oklahoma
5. Southern Cal
6. Oregon
7. South Carolina
8. Alabama
9. Ohio State
10. California
11. Kentucky
12. West Virginia
13. Clemson
14. Cincinnati
15. South Florida
16. Air Force
17. Kansas
18. Purdue
19. Texas Tech
20. Rutgers
21. Arizona State
22. Michigan State
23. Penn State
24. Texas
25. Wisconsin

Waiting: Tulsa, Washington, Georgia, Missouri, Texas A&M, Indiana, Connecticut, Hawaii, Nebraska, Arkansas
At the top, Boston College makes a strong push by waxing previously impressive Georgia Tech, its third straight conference win to open the season and second over one of last year's ACC championship participants, but LSU gets a boost from Mississippi State's win at Auburn to hang on to the top spot. B.C. ahead of Florida, Oklahoma and Southern Cal is a pretty arbitrary value judgment: I'll take three okay-to-good wins in real games over one very good win (is anyone willing to call pounding Tennessee, Miami or Nebraska a "great" win right now? Or Virginia Tech?) and two patsies. USC is only fifth, in fact, because it has one less patsy right now to its name. I can definitely accept arguments over that order.

But the Eagles haven't avoided patsies; they've only delayed them. The next four games are Army, UMass, Bowling Green and Notre Dame, so B.C. will not be in the top five for long as its schedule weakens considerably.

The next ten spots – Oregon through South Florida – aren't separated by much. All ten teams have one solid win over another respectable team accompanied by weak sister wipeouts. Cal loses a little luster as the value of beating Tennessee takes a hit this week. West Virginia, because it's win over Maryland is the only "quality win" blowout aside from Ohio State's over Washington, is probably a little underrated in retrospect, though the Mountaineers' do lose some points for a comeback win at Marshall after the Herd's loss to a I-AA team Saturday.


Who dares question Mangino?!
- - -
Now, a little Q&A, via our poll maestro his own self, who wonders in connection with my ballot coming up (to my surprise, because it looks fairly mainstream to me for this early in the season, with one or two exceptions) as this week's Mr. Bold:
Question: just what has Kansas done against CMU, Toledo, and a I-AA team that's better than beating TCU, in the case of Texas, or Washington State, in the case of Wisconsin?
- - -
Answer: Kansas has thoroughly obliterated all three teams, one of them the defending MAC champion, with no whiff of competition, where Texas and Wisconsin have struggled to varying extents with Arkansas State and Central Florida in the first case and UNLV and The Citadel in the latter – the Badgers were almost "Michiganed," in Brian's own words, even if I don't think the Citadel game was really all that close – which takes away from the more impressive wins over TCU (a 1-2 disappointment already after losing to Air Force) and Wazzou (subsequent wins over San Diego State and Idaho).

Admittedly, it's not a very wide gap; every team beginning with the Jayhawks down is 3-0 without a strong win, or with a suspiciously close win (or two) against a much weaker team. I try to judge every game equally, so one decent win can be somewhat negated by a sketchy win like Texas' over Arkansas State on the other end. Purdue, Texas Tech, Rutgers and Arizona State all have virtually identical, cupcake-strewn resumes after three weeks (Purdue and Kansas, in fact, have both crushed Central Michigan, Toledo and a I-AA team), but at least they've devoured the cupcakes as expected. Texas and Wisconsin haven't. Penn State has, but – again, as Brian has pointed out himself – the Lions' non-conference schedule with Notre Dame's collapse is potentially the worst in Big Ten history. All of these teams will make giant strides with conference wins.

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Judging games equally
I don't think it's -quite- right to weight each game equally. Unless you get Michiganed, a I-AA game can only tell you so much: there's little difference between a 20-point winning margin and a 40-point one. In Wisconsin's case, they never trailed the Citadel, and while the UNLV game earned them a question mark, the Washington State win shows they -can- dominate a respectable team. That's something that (arguably) Oklahoma haven't done: I think the Sooners are getting too much credit for obliterating two I-AA quality defenses, and it remains to be seen exactly how much the Miami blowout means. This doesn't mean they're not great, just that they're not yet beyond-all-doubt as a top 5-10 team like LSU or USC (remember, Nebraska did beat the ACC champs).

Your Boston College rank, on the other hand, is correct, give or take a spot. Ryan must be the MVP of the season so far. Another reason why resume ranking is right: the next few weeks of meaningless wins will let Boston College drift up on everybody else's poll, despite nobody thinking any higher of them than they do now. They'll drift down on your ballot, but that's completely consistent with your methodology (uh, provided you don't judge all games equally, otherwise you'd have to keep them high for crushing Army and Massachusetts).

by bradluen on Sep 19, 2007 7:03 PM EDT reply actions  

Weighting games equally...
I may be reading you wrong, but when I say each game is weighted equally, strength of opponent in those games is the major value component after winning or losing - otherwise, Kansas would be number one right now for absolutely crushing two MAC schools and a I-AA team. I mean that a poor performance against a bad or mediocre team counts as much in downgrading a team's overall resume as beating a good team does in upgrading it. I don't think there's enough data even at the end of the season to disregard anything as an outlier. But absolutely beating Georgia by a point is far more valuable than beating North Texas by a hundred.

So Boston College is definitely dropping over the next month, no matter how large its margin of victory over Army, UMass, Bowling Green and Notre Dame. This is why Hawaii is coming nowhere near the poll. Other than actual record, strength of schedule is the most important component.

by SMQ on Sep 19, 2007 7:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

More or less agreed then.
I guess I just see the value of Kansas' games so far  as something like +3, +2, +3, as opposed to Wisconsin's +8, +1, +2. Totally subjective, of course.

by bradluen on Sep 19, 2007 8:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

The difference between USC and OU/Florida
... if you're calculating from their respective "big name" games against Nebraska, Miami, and Tennessee, is USC is the only one who got their win on the road. That should count for something.

by Defender90 on Sep 20, 2007 1:56 AM EDT reply actions  

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