BCS Bustin': The Week in Realpolitik
Except for the twisted "logic" of spots 6 and 7, if that noun could be applicable to such amnesiac foolishness, there is no reason to be alarmed:
| Rank | Team | BCS Pts. | Harris | Coaches | Comp. Avg. |
| 1. | Missouri | .978 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 2. | West Virginia | .971 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 3. | Ohio State | .919 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| 4. | Georgia | .827 | 4 | 4 | 5 |
| 5. | Kansas | .792 | 6 | T-5 | 4 |
| 6. | Virginia Tech | .781 | 7 | T-5 | 6 |
| 7. | LSU | .774 | 5 | 7 | 7 |
| 8. | Southern Cal | .693 | 9 | 9 | T-10 |
| 9. | Oklahoma | .683 | 8 | 8 | 12 |
| 10. | Florida | .618 | 11 | 11 | T-10 |
My instincts tell me the race is between three equally viable one-loss teams, but the margins in the numbers show this is not true: if West Virginia and Missouri win Saturday, they will play for the self-ordained mythical championship in January. No style points, no scoreboard watching, no number crunching – WVU and Mizzou only have to win, by hook or crook. We’ll look at how "fair" this is later in the week by comparing resumés, but it’s academic. Both human polls favor the Mountaineers and Tigers, and not one of the computer polls ranks the Buckeyes ahead of WVU; one (Richard Billingsley’s) does prefer OSU to Missouri, but it’s tossed from the average in both cases as the high computer score for Ohio State and the low for Mizzou. From OSU’s perspective, there is no conceivable way to make up a half point without playing.
Obviously, the Buckeyes will be in with a loss by either West Virginia or (more likely) Missouri, and the odds of one or the other actually happening are probably about even, so it is, technically, a three-horse race – the tidiest scenario is a Missouri loss and subsequent overhyped Ohio State-West Virginia collision. But as long as surging USC is the opponent in the Granddaddy, OSU’s stance should be the same:

Who needs your stinkin’ championship? The AP and a couple dozen other polls are out there, independent of the BCS and no doubt itching for controversy, and they haven’t signed away their right to take the Rose Bowl or any other game into account. Define your own stakes in Pasadena and let the chips fall where they may.
Outlandish scenarios leading to a meeting of Ohio State and any one of the half dozen teams immediately behind the Buckeyes – one of which will actually occur, if form holds:
Georgia gets in. Missouri and West Virginia both lose, bumping the Bulldogs up to play Ohio State. Whether UGA can hold off any of the four two-loss teams behind it as said teams capture conference championships is the x-factor; for best results, the Dogs should be rooting for Tennessee, Boston College, UCLA and Oklahoma and hope the latter’s win over Missouri isn’t impressive enough to make the leap to number two.
Kansas gets in. Nein. For the love of god, nein.

Time to work your magic, big guy.
- - -
LSU gets in. Losses by Missouri and West Virginia, a shaky win by Virginia Tech (or win by Boston College) and a little anti-Georgia P.R. by Gary Danielson on the Tigers’ behalf during the SEC Championship – he should know: Saturday will be the sixth time Danielson and Lundquist call an LSU game this year – might do the trick. I like LSU, personally, and I'm having a hard time figuring out how the Tigers fell below both Kansas and Virginia Tech (argh!), but at any rate, the timing of the Arkansas loss puts them too far back to realistically jump five spots.
USC gets in. Missouri, West Virginia, Virginia Tech and LSU all lose, and the Trojans’ win over UCLA is enough to hold off Oklahoma.
Oklahoma gets in. West Virginia, Virginia Tech and LSU all lose, and either USC loses to UCLA or the Sooners’ win over Missouri is enough to leap SC – and Kansas and Georgia.
Now: Ignore all of that, because it requires at minimum that Pittsburgh upset West Virginia Saturday, which is so unthinkable – especially in tandem with an otherwise realistic loss by Missouri to Oklahoma, even in an "oh, this season!" sort of way – that any scenario not including the Mountaineers, Midwestern Tigers or Buckeyes is fantasy.
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WVU is in
LSU should be
Not allowing for the likelihood that teams may have played for the W/L instead of the tie in the UK or Arky games, does anyone else think that a 10-0-2 LSU team would get in ahead of WVU, Mizzou, OSU, etc.?
And if that's so, how can they be so heavily penalized for two losses that required the "2-pt conversion" portions of OT? I hate college OT.
I love it
"You lost to OU earlier!"
Yeah. In Norman. Let's see WVU and the cutesy offense of the year go into Norman. Big 12 Championship isn't in Norman. We're better than we were then, they're worse. But that's cool. Everyone keep sipping the Kool-Aid of a team from the Big East that lost to South Freaking Florida and OSU. That's cool. We're happy to go in as the most underrated #1 in history.
Much like Kansas, it doesn't bother us any.
LSU is a terrific team. But it can't close. It just can't. When it absolutely has to get it done, it folds. And allowing a bazillion yards doesn't speak well for that dominating defense.
by mizzourobot @ Sunday Morning Quarterback on Nov 26, 2007 10:42 AM EST reply actions
'LSU can't close'
South Freaking Florida
And who is sipping the WVU kool-aid and ignoring Mizzou? I promise no one (except maybe SMQ and Buckeyes) want OSU over Mizzou.
Wait!
I agree about Missouri's popularity, though. Nobody's questioning the Tigers' ability to beat Oklahoma (OMG, three-point underdogs to open, the disrespect!) or their 'worthiness' re: the rest of the field if they do.
Are we really ok with tOSU in the MNC game?
OSU's schedule vs. Kansas'
Why is 7 wins so magical?
Seven wins is not magical
http://web1.ncaa.org/d1mfb/2007/Internet/toughest%20schedule/ia_9games_past.pdf
I'm not trying to dis Kansas, but in this poll territory, it is what it is.
I don't know what the computers would look like
Playoff now more than ever
I'm pulling hard for Missouri to come through because a WVU - OSU BCS title game would match two teams with pretty shoddy resumes. WVU has a win over the #23 BCS team and a loss to #21. OSU is not much better with a win over #18 and a loss to #15. And that is all. I would have to boycott such a matchup. The best strategy this year (and probably in general) is to play in a BCS conference without a title game and schedule a bunch of out of conference patsies.
The neutral college football fan should be lamenting Oregon and LSU's falls from grace (Or cheering for an OSU vs. WVU debacle, hoping for some reform to the system).
Go Mizzou!
by crepuscular @ Sunday Morning Quarterback on Nov 26, 2007 1:51 PM EST reply actions
why?
Really? Why should they? Because you like LSU? It seems as if this is a common stance- "I hate the current system because my favorite team is not in it anymore, but would be in a playoff system".
Honestly, this is one year where I think the system is working as well as it can- each worthy team in the discussion controlled it's own destiny and, in most cases, stumbled. And that's the game. That's what makes it dramatic. That's what makes it amazing.
by Tim J @ Sunday Morning Quarterback on Nov 26, 2007 2:26 PM EST up reply actions
It should be self-evident
The flaw in the system is that teams from different conferences have widely different paths to a potential BCS title bid.
I agree that LSU controlled its own destiny and squandered it. But it's a lot easier to not squander your chance when you play several fewer BCS top caliber teams. I was for a playoff system a week ago and I remain in favor of one.
by crepuscular @ Sunday Morning Quarterback on Nov 26, 2007 2:35 PM EST up reply actions
not self-evident
by Tim J @ Sunday Morning Quarterback on Nov 26, 2007 2:42 PM EST up reply actions
I don't disagree
My point was that a neutral college football fan would prefer a matchup of teams with multiple wins over top 10 teams to a matchup of teams without a single such win. Hence my cheering on Missouri for the BCS title game.
by crepuscular @ Sunday Morning Quarterback on Nov 26, 2007 3:14 PM EST up reply actions
resumes
by crepuscular @ Sunday Morning Quarterback on Nov 26, 2007 3:20 PM EST up reply actions
Re-"I Don't DIsagree"
by FreakinA on Nov 26, 2007 5:04 PM EST reply actions
wow, you are really sensitive
by crepuscular @ Sunday Morning Quarterback on Nov 26, 2007 5:12 PM EST up reply actions
Proving Crepuscular wrong
by FreakinA on Nov 26, 2007 5:19 PM EST reply actions
Huh?
No disrespect to other Oregon supporters but, FreakinA, you're spouting nothing but hot air.
Read back over my comments. I never elevated LSU over Oregon. Why are you trying to prove the reverse?
by crepuscular @ Sunday Morning Quarterback on Nov 26, 2007 5:33 PM EST up reply actions
LSU and Oregon
I think it would be difficult for tOSU or WFV to make such a claim. That might be the "official" result but discerning observers would do well to give this result little credence.
SMQ is quite right in what I take to be his intimation that a win by tOSU over a healthy USC would give them a superior claim to being "National Champion" than a win over WFV, BCS blessing or no.
However, a tOSU win over USC combined with an Ilinois win over Florida in the Captial One, and completed by a Missouri win over WFV (which would necessarilly be preceeded by a win over OU at a neutral site - avenging their only loss, at OU) might indeed render the Tigers Mythical National Champions.
I'm an OSU fan...
Bottom line: a playoff would be awesome.
re
by FreakinA on Nov 26, 2007 8:25 PM EST reply actions
As I write
The reason for opposing a playoff are not new but remain compelling (if not quite venerable): 1) maintaining the significance of the regualr season, and 2) the tradition of the bowls. The second argument is of course more of less compelling depending on the extent to which one views tradition as a particuarly appealing aspect of CF.
Moreover, I'm somewhat dubious that a playoff would always definitively determine the best team in a given year. As Lou Holth so often says you get a different team every week. On this point the 2007 season supports his postion in a notably powerful way. Injuries, emotions and other factors might yield a different result but on this point than the BCS or the polls but not necessarilly a better one.
True, the championship would have the merit of being "decided on the field" and that would seem especially attractive this year when there are no clearly superior teams and a decision on the field would yield a result at least as good as any other. Most years, however, we can with some clarity identify the superior teams and a thorough evaluation subsequent to a compelling bowl matchup would often yield at least as valid a result of the said playoff while retaining the intensity of the regular season and the tradion of the bowls.
None of this should be construed as a defense of the BCS, which has the notable appeal of both diminishing the significance of the non "1/2" matchups and, especially with the advent of the "National Championship Game", trashing an important part of the very tradition which constitues a principal argument against a palyoff. Prior to this advent the system worked perfectly, I would argue, precisely 1 of 9 times. The USC/Texas matchup in the ACTUAL Rose Bowl was in my view superior to any alternative, even say a 4 team plaoff which would have inolved No. 3 Penn State, a triple overtime winner over 5 loss Florida State.
In general a 4 team playoff incorporating the bowls would seem the best way to go. It would have the merit of preserving virtually the entire value of the regular season as well as the bowl tradition. This might be suboptimal in years such as 2005 where we had two teams which pretty clearly stood head and shoulders above the crowd or 2007 where we really have no clue, but over time the right balance would be struck.
I hate the idea of a playoff
Let me add this.. I graduated from Penn State but I was born a tarheel fan. I've heard the praise and adulation of March Madness all my life and I hate it. I hate how college basketball decides their champion. Go 20-12 in a BCS conference, .500 in conference record piss around for 4 months, sneak into the tourney, win 6 games(less than 1/5 of the overall schedule) and you crown yourself champion.
How great would college football be if every year a 6-5 team with a 4-4 conference record showed up in January.. won 4 games and crowned themselves nat'l champ. Awesome.
Secondly, the MNC isn't the end all goal. Sure its great for the media and leads to discussion but any Big 10 fan will tell you their goal is to win the conference and play in the Rose Bowl. Prior to the SEC championship game, that was the goal in that conference.
There are so many problems with a playoff I can't even begin to count them.. You'd have to add auto births for small conference champs(Sun Belt, MWC, etc.) doing that adds at least 6 teams to the mix that are just bad. As soon as you do that you need to increase the field to 16 teams. So the difference between your #10 team and your #11 team(after auto births) is the difference between playing for a national title and playing in a bowl that won't exist in 4 years. Umm.. Yeah.. Fuck that shit.
The media(who sucks btw) advocates a playoff because rational comparison of teams and making an actual determination of who the 2 best teams in the country are via watching the games and looking at actual data is too difficult for their liberal arts degree carrying minds to accept.
Look, the beauty of the system now is: you have 2 teams playing for a mythical national championship, you have multiple polls that can split the title on a whim, you have BCS games that represent a major step in the history of a program, and you have bowl games providing a destination for alumni and a celebration of the grind and the parity of college football today. People may trash the humanitarian bowl but at the end of the day its a bowl just like anything else. The #3 team is going to play in one and is not going to be crowned a national champ just like the #48 team. I don't feel that way about the NIT tournament. Either you are in a bowl or you are not, or you are in the Big Dance or you might as well be home.
And if you feel wronged by the system.. fuck it. Throw up a banner celebrating a 12-0 season. The 1994 Nittany Lions went 12-0, weren't pushed at all, crushed Oregon in the Rose Bowl, finished #2 behind Nebraska. Nebraska was the champ, who cares?
The other added beauty of college football is that no matter what happens on the football field you can always look that irate Big 12/SEC fan in the eye and say, " I'm sick of discussing this around your 20 year old pickup truck, I'm going to finish this discussion behind the wheel of my Benz."
by displacedfan on Nov 27, 2007 12:29 AM EST reply actions
Penn State
On the merits of a playoff
As for one playoff scenario that I find very appealing, Dan Wetzel of Yahoo lays a 16 team playoff out, including what that would look like this year, assuming the currently favored teams win this weekend. Link here:
http://sports.yahoo.com/ncaaf/news;_ylt=AsHyFMatQmwwXDayNHMEzWE5nYcB?slug=dw-playoff112707&prov= yhoo&type=lgns
I've always been bothered by the BCS and how it presets the "superior" conferences, which essentially becomes a self-fulfilling mandate. This 16 playoff format would do away with that and maintain the integrity of the regular system. It may not be perfect but it's miles ahead of the mess we have now.
Btw, what's with the Benz comment? I guess it's nice for you to have one but I personally couldn't give a shit.
by crepuscular @ Sunday Morning Quarterback on Nov 27, 2007 9:24 AM EST reply actions

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