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BCS Bustin': The Week in Realpolitik

Except for the twisted "logic" of spots 6 and 7, if that noun could be applicable to such amnesiac foolishness, there is no reason to be alarmed:

Updated BCS Standings, 11-25
Rank Team BCS Pts. Harris Coaches Comp. Avg.
1. Missouri .978 1 2 1
2. West Virginia .971 2 1 2
3. Ohio State .919 3 3 3
4. Georgia .827 4 4 5
5. Kansas .792 6 T-5 4
6. Virginia Tech .781 7 T-5 6
7. LSU .774 5 7 7
8. Southern Cal .693 9 9 T-10
9. Oklahoma .683 8 8 12
10. Florida .618 11 11 T-10

My instincts tell me the race is between three equally viable one-loss teams, but the margins in the numbers show this is not true: if West Virginia and Missouri win Saturday, they will play for the self-ordained mythical championship in January. No style points, no scoreboard watching, no number crunching – WVU and Mizzou only have to win, by hook or crook. We’ll look at how "fair" this is later in the week by comparing resumés, but it’s academic. Both human polls favor the Mountaineers and Tigers, and not one of the computer polls ranks the Buckeyes ahead of WVU; one (Richard Billingsley’s) does prefer OSU to Missouri, but it’s tossed from the average in both cases as the high computer score for Ohio State and the low for Mizzou. From OSU’s perspective, there is no conceivable way to make up a half point without playing.

Obviously, the Buckeyes will be in with a loss by either West Virginia or (more likely) Missouri, and the odds of one or the other actually happening are probably about even, so it is, technically, a three-horse race – the tidiest scenario is a Missouri loss and subsequent overhyped Ohio State-West Virginia collision. But as long as surging USC is the opponent in the Granddaddy, OSU’s stance should be the same:

Who needs your stinkin’ championship? The AP and a couple dozen other polls are out there, independent of the BCS and no doubt itching for controversy, and they haven’t signed away their right to take the Rose Bowl or any other game into account. Define your own stakes in Pasadena and let the chips fall where they may.

Outlandish scenarios leading to a meeting of Ohio State and any one of the half dozen teams immediately behind the Buckeyes – one of which will actually occur, if form holds:

Georgia gets in. Missouri and West Virginia both lose, bumping the Bulldogs up to play Ohio State. Whether UGA can hold off any of the four two-loss teams behind it as said teams capture conference championships is the x-factor; for best results, the Dogs should be rooting for Tennessee, Boston College, UCLA and Oklahoma and hope the latter’s win over Missouri isn’t impressive enough to make the leap to number two.

Kansas gets in. Nein. For the love of god, nein.


Time to work your magic, big guy.
- - -
Virginia Tech gets in. Nein again, basically, but infinitismally possible if Missouri and West Virginia lose and the Hokies’ margin over Boston College is too overwhelmingly huge to be denied. Providing voters continue to deny the overwhelmingly huge loss Tech suffered in September to...

LSU gets in. Losses by Missouri and West Virginia, a shaky win by Virginia Tech (or win by Boston College) and a little anti-Georgia P.R. by Gary Danielson on the Tigers’ behalf during the SEC Championship – he should know: Saturday will be the sixth time Danielson and Lundquist call an LSU game this year – might do the trick. I like LSU, personally, and I'm having a hard time figuring out how the Tigers fell below both Kansas and Virginia Tech (argh!), but at any rate, the timing of the Arkansas loss puts them too far back to realistically jump five spots.

USC gets in. Missouri, West Virginia, Virginia Tech and LSU all lose, and the Trojans’ win over UCLA is enough to hold off Oklahoma.

Oklahoma gets in. West Virginia, Virginia Tech and LSU all lose, and either USC loses to UCLA or the Sooners’ win over Missouri is enough to leap SC – and Kansas and Georgia.

Now: Ignore all of that, because it requires at minimum that Pittsburgh upset West Virginia Saturday, which is so unthinkable – especially in tandem with an otherwise realistic loss by Missouri to Oklahoma, even in an "oh, this season!" sort of way – that any scenario not including the Mountaineers, Midwestern Tigers or Buckeyes is fantasy.

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WVU is in
I'd say Dave Wannstedt leading a horrible Pitt team to an upset of a West Virginia team finally getting its chance at a BCS title game after a couple years of hype is less likely of an event as Stanford beating USC was at the beginning of the year. At least Jim Harbaugh can play the role of master motivator.

by Year2 on Nov 26, 2007 10:02 AM EST reply actions  

LSU should be
I have been wondering this since Saturday, and while I'm a little younger probably than some on this site (mid-20's), I still argue that if LSU were 10-0-2 that they would be playing for the MNC.

Not allowing for the likelihood that teams may have played for the W/L instead of the tie in the UK or Arky games, does anyone else think that a 10-0-2 LSU team would get in ahead of WVU, Mizzou, OSU, etc.?

And if that's so, how can they be so heavily penalized for two losses that required the "2-pt conversion" portions of OT?  I hate college OT.

by USCKB on Nov 26, 2007 10:27 AM EST reply actions  

I love it
Everyone just keeps on assuming we'll lose.

"You lost to OU earlier!"

Yeah. In Norman. Let's see WVU and the cutesy offense of the year go into Norman. Big 12 Championship isn't in Norman. We're better than we were then, they're worse. But that's cool. Everyone keep sipping the Kool-Aid of a team from the Big East that lost to South Freaking Florida and OSU. That's cool. We're happy to go in as the most underrated #1 in history.

Much like Kansas, it doesn't bother us any.

LSU is a terrific team. But it can't close. It just can't. When it absolutely has to get it done, it folds. And allowing a bazillion yards doesn't speak well for that dominating defense.

by mizzourobot @ Sunday Morning Quarterback on Nov 26, 2007 10:42 AM EST reply actions  

'LSU can't close'
I'm not conceding an Oklahoma win, but on your critique of LSU, the Tigers came from behind in the fourth quarter to beat Florida, Auburn and Alabama. So sometimes they can close.

by SMQ on Nov 26, 2007 11:27 AM EST up reply actions  

South Freaking Florida
is #15 in the computer polls.  And it was on the road in front of a packed house of suprisingly raucous fans.  And before you count "team from the Big East" as a negative, check the conference standings from each of the 6 BCS Computers.  Not saying they're gospel, but "team from the Big East" really can't be used as an insult.  Not this year (or last year, for that matter).

And who is sipping the WVU kool-aid and ignoring Mizzou?  I promise no one (except maybe SMQ and Buckeyes) want OSU over Mizzou.  

by Gator Cub on Nov 26, 2007 11:29 AM EST up reply actions  

Wait!
I don't want OSU over Mizzou. I just think the Buckeyes are equally deserving of a shot they're not going to get. Actually, West Virginia would probably be on my chopping block before Mizzou - wins over UConn, Cincinnati and Mississippi State, huh? I don't want anyone over anyone; I want a playoff!

I agree about Missouri's popularity, though. Nobody's questioning the Tigers' ability to beat Oklahoma (OMG, three-point underdogs to open, the disrespect!) or their 'worthiness' re: the rest of the field if they do.

by SMQ on Nov 26, 2007 11:53 AM EST up reply actions  

Are we really ok with tOSU in the MNC game?
If we're saying "nein" to Kansas, does a Buckeyes team that's beat, um, well, also just about nobody make us much happier?

by Calfan on Nov 26, 2007 11:13 AM EST reply actions  

OSU's schedule vs. Kansas'
Kansas has one win vs. a winning team (over 7-5 Texas A&M). Ohio State has five wins over teams with seven wins or more (Wisconsin, Penn State, Michigan, Michigan State and Purdue). Those are very different levels of 'nobody.'

by SMQ on Nov 26, 2007 11:28 AM EST up reply actions  

Why is 7 wins so magical?
Are you telling me Wisky, PSU, Michigan (banged up), MSU, and Purdue are that much better than TAMU, Oklahoma State, Colorado, Kansas State (pre-implosion), and Nebraska?  That looks like an amalgam of average for both sides across the board.

by DoubleB on Nov 26, 2007 11:53 AM EST up reply actions  

Seven wins is not magical
But it's better than five or six. Wisconsin, Penn State and Michigan have eight wins (Wisconsin has nine, actually), and yeah, I'd put them on the higher side of 'average' than Ok State, Colorado, Nebraska and K-State. Ohio State's schedule is not amazing, but before you get to Missouri, Kansas' is pretty wretched for an alleged top five team - the only BCS conference team with a weaker sked based on opponents' win % is Iowa, because the Hawkeyes didn't play Ohio State or Michigan.

http://web1.ncaa.org/d1mfb/2007/Internet/toughest%20schedule/ia_9games_past.pdf

I'm not trying to dis Kansas, but in this poll territory, it is what it is.

by SMQ on Nov 26, 2007 12:01 PM EST up reply actions  

I don't know what the computers would look like
but in the human polls LSU could definitely jump to #2 if Mizzou and WVU lose.  Similar to last year, I would expect the voters to completely throw out previous polls and approach their final ballots from the perspective of "who am I nominating for the Championship game?"  With that kind of thought process, I have a hard time believing any voter would rank UGA over LSU.  Maybe Oklahoma or USC... maybe.

by Gator Cub on Nov 26, 2007 11:34 AM EST reply actions  

Playoff now more than ever
As an LSU supporter I'm not going to try to make the argument that LSU should be in the BCS title game.  But what's really painful is seeing who's replacing LSU at the top of the BCS.  Missouri I have absolutely no problem with.  They've got a victory over a BCS top 10 team and will have played Oklahoma twice.  That's pretty solid.

I'm pulling hard for Missouri to come through because a WVU - OSU BCS title game would match two teams with pretty shoddy resumes.  WVU has a win over the #23 BCS team and a loss to #21.  OSU is not much better with a win over #18 and a loss to #15.  And that is all.  I would have to boycott such a matchup.  The best strategy this year (and probably in general) is to play in a BCS conference without a title game and schedule a bunch of out of conference patsies.

The neutral college football fan should be lamenting Oregon and LSU's falls from grace (Or cheering for an OSU vs. WVU debacle, hoping for some reform to the system).

Go Mizzou!

by crepuscular @ Sunday Morning Quarterback on Nov 26, 2007 1:51 PM EST reply actions  

why?
The neutral college football fan should be lamenting Oregon and LSU's falls from grace

Really?  Why should they?  Because you like LSU?  It seems as if this is a common stance- "I hate the current system because my favorite team is not in it anymore, but would be in a playoff system".  

Honestly, this is one year where I think the system is working as well as it can- each worthy team in the discussion controlled it's own destiny and, in most cases, stumbled.  And that's the game.  That's what makes it dramatic.  That's what makes it amazing.  

where every game matters... until the playoff system kills it all.

by Tim J @ Sunday Morning Quarterback on Nov 26, 2007 2:26 PM EST up reply actions  

It should be self-evident
But I made it pretty clear in my discussion of the respective resumes of WVU and OSU.  Is it really so hard to see that neither team has really made a good argument to be in the top 2?  Each beat just one team ranked in the lower half to the BCS top 25.

The flaw in the system is that teams from different conferences have widely different paths to a potential BCS title bid.  

I agree that LSU controlled its own destiny and squandered it.  But it's a lot easier to not squander your chance when you play several fewer BCS top caliber teams.  I was for a playoff system a week ago and I remain in favor of one.

by crepuscular @ Sunday Morning Quarterback on Nov 26, 2007 2:35 PM EST up reply actions  

not self-evident
If the championship game ended up being OSU v WVU, who is the team with the superior resume that is being left out?  You complained about each resume in a dismissive way but didn't name a candidate with superior results.  I don't think there is one.
where every game matters... until the playoff system kills it all.

by Tim J @ Sunday Morning Quarterback on Nov 26, 2007 2:42 PM EST up reply actions  

I don't disagree
I may not have made myself entirely clear in my first post.  My point was that, with a WVU - OSU BCS title game, the system is matching up teams that have not even beaten a single top ten team.  Had LSU and Oregon continued atop the polls, both would have won at least two games against top 10 BCS teams (though OU's ASU victory has since slide down a bit).  Both teams would have been deserving and only Missouri would have a strong argument to be in the mix in that hypothetical situation.

My point was that a neutral college football fan would prefer a matchup of teams with multiple wins over top 10 teams to a matchup of teams without a single such win.  Hence my cheering on Missouri for the BCS title game.

by crepuscular @ Sunday Morning Quarterback on Nov 26, 2007 3:14 PM EST up reply actions  

resumes
As far as your question about who has a superior resume, I really wouldn't want to claim than anyone does.  But I would also strongly claim that WVU's and OSU's are not any better than a number of others, probably not any in the BCS top 5 to 8.  I think you would have to elevate Hawaii to the top spot with any reasoning that allows you to separate the WVU and OSU resumes from the others.

by crepuscular @ Sunday Morning Quarterback on Nov 26, 2007 3:20 PM EST up reply actions  

Re-"I Don't DIsagree"
Oregon had the most impressive wins of the season followed distantly by LSU. Wins over USC and ASU? that seems pretty impressive to me, USC is top 10 and ASU is for sure not in a slide. ASU has only lost to 2 teams when they are easily the best team in the country. my phrasing may be a little confusing, but I mean when ASU played USC, they would have beaten any other school in the country, and same goes for when they played Oregon. Dixon fragile ligaments messed everything up this year.

by FreakinA on Nov 26, 2007 5:04 PM EST reply actions  

wow, you are really sensitive
Take another look at the BCS standings before believing your "followed distantly" comment.  Besides, my argument was that LSU AND Oregon were the most impressive teams in the country before their losses.  Why would you want to make the absurd argument that Oregon's wins were so much more impressive?

by crepuscular @ Sunday Morning Quarterback on Nov 26, 2007 5:12 PM EST up reply actions  

Proving Crepuscular wrong
Because the only game that people can pretend was over a good team was the come from behind win over Florida. I saw the Vtech game, and they were NOT good when they played LSU, it had nothing to do with LSU's play.

by FreakinA on Nov 26, 2007 5:19 PM EST reply actions  

Huh?
Yeah, you're right.  LSU's wins against Florida, Virginia Tech and Auburn don't stand up to the mighty Oregon victories over USC and ASU.  Gimme a break!

No disrespect to other Oregon supporters but, FreakinA, you're spouting nothing but hot air.

Read back over my comments.  I never elevated LSU over Oregon.  Why are you trying to prove the reverse?

by crepuscular @ Sunday Morning Quarterback on Nov 26, 2007 5:33 PM EST up reply actions  

LSU and Oregon
would have, HAD THEY WON OUT, clearly made more deserving national championship contenders.  They have not won out and Oregon, without Dixon OR even Leaf cannot, I don't think be considered a viable Top 25 or maybe even a Top 50 team.  LSU, is still no less than a Top 10 and on quite possibly a Top 5 team (it certainly is that on a resume basis).  No one can argue that they are at this point worthy Championship contenders.  However, had they won out they could plausibly have claimed to be the best team in the country.  

I think it would be difficult for tOSU or WFV to make such a claim.  That might be the "official" result but discerning observers  would do well to give this result little credence.  

SMQ is quite right in what I take to be his intimation that a win by tOSU over a healthy USC would give them a superior claim to being "National Champion" than a win over WFV, BCS blessing or no.  

However, a tOSU win over USC combined with an Ilinois win over Florida in the Captial One, and completed by a Missouri win over WFV (which would necessarilly be preceeded by a win over OU at a neutral site - avenging their only loss, at OU) might indeed render the Tigers Mythical National Champions.  

by marcillac on Nov 26, 2007 7:20 PM EST reply actions  

I'm an OSU fan...
And my feeling is this:  I don't care where OSU goes, I just want to see them play well and win (obvious comment I suppose).  As far as I'm concerned, a real, no doubt champion isn't going to happen - every school has some issue, be it a couple losses, an iffy schedule, whatever.  Seeing OSU in win the MNC game would be lovely (the school can hang some banners, have a parade, woohoo!), but as you point out, I don't really know what beating WVU would prove, and perception-wise a win over a healthy USC would do OSU a lot more good in terms of national perception after the disaster last January.

Bottom line:  a playoff would be awesome.

by osuvandy on Nov 26, 2007 7:49 PM EST up reply actions  

re
Auburn is not a good team, and I'm not saying that in any way should oregon now be ranked about 117, but no other team has the two top quality wins that oregon had when they were actually good.

by FreakinA on Nov 26, 2007 8:25 PM EST reply actions  

As I write
above I agree that a win over USC would carry more weight than one over WFVU.  The traditional Rose Bowl matchup would also carry much appeal as such, which leads to your second point respecting the playoff which I oppose (certainly in an 8 team or greater version).

The reason for opposing a playoff are not new but remain compelling (if not quite venerable):  1) maintaining the significance of the regualr season, and 2) the tradition of the bowls.  The second argument is of course more of less compelling depending on the extent to which one views tradition as a particuarly appealing aspect of CF.

Moreover, I'm somewhat dubious that a playoff would always definitively determine the best team in a given year.  As Lou Holth so often says you get a different team every week.  On this point the 2007 season supports his postion in a notably powerful way.  Injuries, emotions and other factors might yield a different result but on this point than the BCS or the polls but not necessarilly a better one.  

True, the championship would have the merit of being "decided on the field" and that would seem especially attractive this year when there are no clearly superior teams and a decision on the field would yield a result at least as good as any other.  Most years, however, we can with some clarity identify the superior teams and a thorough evaluation subsequent to a compelling bowl matchup would often yield at least as valid a result of the said playoff while retaining the intensity of the regular season and the tradion of the bowls.  

None of this should be construed as a defense of the BCS, which has the notable appeal of both diminishing the significance of the non "1/2" matchups and, especially with the advent of the "National Championship Game", trashing an important part of the very tradition which constitues a principal argument against a palyoff.   Prior to this advent the system worked perfectly, I would argue, precisely 1 of 9 times.  The USC/Texas matchup in the ACTUAL Rose Bowl was in my view superior to any alternative, even say a 4 team plaoff which would have inolved No. 3 Penn State, a triple overtime winner over 5 loss Florida State.  

In general a 4 team playoff incorporating the bowls would seem the best way to go.  It would have the merit of preserving virtually the entire value of the regular season as well as the bowl tradition.  This might be suboptimal in years such as 2005 where we had two teams which pretty clearly stood head and shoulders above the crowd or 2007 where we really have no clue, but over time the right balance would be struck.  

by marcillac on Nov 26, 2007 8:59 PM EST reply actions  

I hate the idea of a playoff
I hate the plus one, and I hate the argument that schools without tradition or a big time following are at a disadvantage.  They are at a disadvantage, my school has a larger enrollment, a bigger endowment, a more expensive coach, more expensive tickets(taking into account donations to get sed tickets), and my school has won national championships.  College Football is a business, big business.. big schools that make big money get shots at the big bucks.  That's how things work in every other business.. why not this one?

Let me add this.. I graduated from Penn State but I was born a tarheel fan.  I've heard the praise and adulation of March Madness all my life and I hate it.  I hate how college basketball decides their champion.  Go 20-12 in a BCS conference, .500 in conference record piss around for 4 months, sneak into the tourney, win 6 games(less than 1/5 of the overall schedule) and you crown yourself champion.

How great would college football be if every year a 6-5 team with a 4-4 conference record showed up in January.. won 4 games and crowned themselves nat'l champ.  Awesome.

Secondly, the MNC isn't the end all goal.  Sure its great for the media and leads to discussion but any Big 10 fan will tell you their goal is to win the conference and play in the Rose Bowl.  Prior to the SEC championship game, that was the goal in that conference.  

There are so many problems with a playoff I can't even begin to count them.. You'd have to add auto births for small conference champs(Sun Belt, MWC, etc.) doing that adds at least 6 teams to the mix that are just bad.  As soon as you do that you need to increase the field to 16 teams.  So the difference between your #10 team and your #11 team(after auto births) is the difference between playing for a national title and playing in a bowl that won't exist in 4 years.  Umm.. Yeah.. Fuck that shit.

The media(who sucks btw) advocates a playoff because rational comparison of teams and making an actual determination of who the 2 best teams in the country are via watching the games and looking at actual data is too difficult for their liberal arts degree carrying minds to accept.  

Look, the beauty of the system now is: you have 2 teams playing for a mythical national championship, you have multiple polls that can split the title on a whim, you have BCS games that represent a major step in the history of a program, and you have bowl games providing a destination for alumni and a celebration of the grind and the parity of college football today.  People may trash the humanitarian bowl but at the end of the day its a bowl just like anything else.  The #3 team is going to play in one and is not going to be crowned a national champ just like the #48 team.  I don't feel that way about the NIT tournament.  Either you are in a bowl or you are not, or you are in the Big Dance or you might as well be home.

And if you feel wronged by the system.. fuck it.  Throw up a banner celebrating a 12-0 season.  The 1994 Nittany Lions went 12-0, weren't pushed at all, crushed Oregon in the Rose Bowl, finished #2 behind Nebraska.  Nebraska was the champ, who cares?

The other added beauty of college football is that no matter what happens on the football field you can always look that irate Big 12/SEC fan in the eye and say, " I'm sick of discussing this around your 20 year old pickup truck, I'm going to finish this discussion behind the wheel of my Benz."

by displacedfan on Nov 27, 2007 12:29 AM EST reply actions  

Penn State
That Benz and Anthony Morelli will get you a trip to the Alamo Bowl.

by DoubleB on Nov 27, 2007 4:29 PM EST up reply actions  

On the merits of a playoff
Fair enough, displacedfan, that you don't like the idea of a playoff.  No system is going to satisfy everyone.  I haven't seen any real scientific polls but I strongly suspect you're in a minority on that one.

As for one playoff scenario that I find very appealing, Dan Wetzel of Yahoo lays a 16 team playoff out, including what that would look like this year, assuming the currently favored teams win this weekend.  Link here:
http://sports.yahoo.com/ncaaf/news;_ylt=AsHyFMatQmwwXDayNHMEzWE5nYcB?slug=dw-playoff112707&prov= yhoo&type=lgns

I've always been bothered by the BCS and how it presets the "superior" conferences, which essentially becomes a self-fulfilling mandate.  This 16 playoff format would do away with that and maintain the integrity of the regular system.  It may not be perfect but it's miles ahead of the mess we have now.

Btw, what's with the Benz comment?  I guess it's nice for you to have one but I personally couldn't give a shit.

by crepuscular @ Sunday Morning Quarterback on Nov 27, 2007 9:24 AM EST reply actions  

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