Oops, meant to get this up a couple of days ago. Some movement from last week's games. Maryland and Michigan State move from "in" to the bubble, Colorado, Oregon State and a bunch of mid-majors move to "in", and Pitt and Western Michigan are now "out".
I haven't looked at it, but I think one of the unusual things about this year is that the BCS conference teams are just dominating the mid-majors, especially between the Big 10 and the MAC, and the SEC and Conference USA. That's helping almost everybody get to 6 wins in the majors, and leaving the best teams in the mid-majors down at 4 or 5 wins even now. The Mountain West and WAC are looking more normal.
OK, so I'm going to go conference-by-conference. Teams in italics haven't officially qualified or been eliminated, but their schedule makes it clear enough for this. For the BCS conferences, I'll also note how likely it is that they'll get a team in the big games beyond the automatic.
ACC (8 bids)
IN: Virginia, Virginia Tech, Boston College, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, Clemson, Miami
OUT: N.C. State, North Carolina, Duke
BUBBLE: Maryland - I was too hasty having them in last week. They do still have N.C. and N.C. St. left, but they need both of them to get to 6 (or a win from somewhere else). Still pretty likely, but not certain.
Florida State - Only need 1 more, but there aren't any easy ones there. (at B.C., at Va. Tech, Maryland, at Florida).
With the 2 teams playing each other, that means Maryland would have to beat Florida State but lose all their other games for neither one of them to make it.
BCS: The issue right now is that they don't look great, but most of the other options are even worse. Virginia Tech didn't drop much even with the loss to B.C. If those 2 wind up in the championship game, I think the loser will still go to a big `un.
Big East (5 bids)
IN: USF, UConn, West Virginia, Cincinnati, Rutgers
OUT: Syracuse, Pitt
BUBBLE: Louisville - Beating either USF or Rutgers looks less challenging than it did last week, but this team is totally unpredictable.
BCS: If UConn wins the conference, I still see a 10-2 West Virginia as a popular option, but does anybody really expect UConn to win the conference? If the Mountaineers come out on top, I have a hard time seeing another Big East team in the top 14 pool, although somebody has to be.
Big 10 (7 bids)
IN: Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, Purdue, Wisconsin, Illinois, Northwestern, Indiana,
BUBBLE: Iowa - Minnesota and Western Michigan should be good for 2 wins, but then again, Iowa State should have been good for one as well. They're a lot closer after beating the Spartans, in any case.
Michigan State - A 5-2 MSU team losing its last 5 games? Probably not as surprising as it should be. They need 1 win from Michigan, at Purdue, & Penn State. My gut says they'll get it, my head is less certain.
BCS: Somebody has to beat Ohio State. If not, it won't be an issue because a 3-loss Michigan or Wisconsin isn't making the top 14. Even if they did get 2 teams in the BCS, their bowl slots are filled now, with a high probability of more teams qualifying.
Big 12 (8 bids)
IN: Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, Texas A&M, Texas, Texas Tech, Kansas State, Colorado
OUT: Iowa State, Baylor
BUBBLE: Oklahoma State - they only need 1 win, and they still have Baylor. Almost a lock. (Troy!)
Nebraska - 2 wins needed, and they are hard to see on the schedule (at Kansas, Kansas State, at Colorado). If they hadn't come so close to beating Texas, I'd probably put them in the OUT group.
BCS: A very good chance, assuming the North winner enters the championship game with 1 loss.
Pac-10 (6 bids)
IN: Arizona State, USC, Oregon, UCLA, Cal, Oregon State
OUT: Arizona, Washington, Washington State
BUBBLE: Stanford - they need 3 wins, but if they can beat USC, they could win any of the ones left - the Washingtons, Notre Dame and Cal (beware rivalry ganes). Pretty unlikely, but it would be boring to have nobody here.
BCS: Looking more and more like a sure thing. Even if one of the top 2 went into a skid, there's a good chance USC would be an option and plenty of bowls would like them.
So there's a decent chance of an unclaimed bid, but they already have a deal with C-USA to cover it.
SEC (8 bids)
IN: LSU, Kentucky, South Carolina, Alabama, Georgia, Auburn, Florida, Tennessee
BUBBLE: Arkansas - They need 1 from South Carolina, at Tennessee, Miss. State, and at LSU. They have to get 1 win out of there, right?
Mississippi State - 1 win needed, and they still have Ole Miss (and Arkansas). Just about a lock, but they're not very good.
Vanderbilt - Got the Miami win, now they need then 1 from at Florida, Kentucky, at Tennessee and Wake Forest. Hey, if they can beat South Carolina...I still don't think it will happen.
BCS: They keep beating each other up. It might get to the point where nobody has the 9 wins needed for a BCS berth, but otherwise, I still think they're in good shape unless Hawaii/Boise State gets involved.
Seriously, the SEC could have 11 bowl-eligible teams and I wouldn't be shocked.
To summarize this, the SEC and Big 10 will cover all their slots, the Big 12 probably will, and the ACC and Big East will unless they get 2 BCS teams, and even in that case, have another team with a pretty good shot at covering. (Louisville/Maryland or FSU). The Pac 10 will probably have an open slot if they get 2 teams in, but they have a replacement ready, in theory. If you don't get one of your conference's automatic bids, you're not going to a game. Simple as that.
OK, onto the mid-majors, more briefly.
C-USA (6 bids)
IN: East Carolina, UCF, Houston, Tulsa
OUT: Marshall, Rice, SMU UAB, Tulane,
BUBBLE: Memphis, Southern Miss and UTEP all need 2 wins, but they all have 2 games against the bottom 5 (or Arkansas St.), plus Southern Miss plays both Memphis and UTEP, so somebody has to win those. They all really should make it. If you had to pick somebody to get bumped, I guess you'd go with Southern Miss.
Independents (1 bid)
IN: Navy (yes, even after losing to Delaware. The 4 teams left on their schedule have a total of 6 wins.)
OUT: Notre Dame
BUBBLE: Army - not much chance, and probably no spot in any case.
MAC (3 bids)
IN: Central Michigan, Ball State
OUT: Northern Illinois, Eastern Michigan, Western Michigan
BUBBLE: Everybody else. Right now I'd guess that Bowling Green is the most likely to get the 3rd bid, but nobody in the East has more than 4 wins, so who knows?
MWC (4 bids)
IN: Air Force, New Mexico, Utah BYU, Wyoming
OUT: Colorado State, UNLV, San Diego State
BUBBLE: TCU just needs 2 wins from New Mexico, at BYU, UNLV, and at San Diego State.
Sun Belt (1 bid)
OUT: Louisiana-Laffayette, FIU, North Texas
BUBBLE: MTSU, Arkansas State, Florida Atlantic, ULM. None of this should matter, although MTSU and FAU could still get the bid if they win out and thus get the tiebreaker over Troy.
WAC (3 bids)
IN: Hawaii, Boise State
OUT: Utah State, Idaho, Louisiana Tech
BUBBLE: Fresno State, Nevada, New Mexico State, San Jose State. Fresno's in good shape, San Jose State isn't, the other 2 are in-between.
BCS: Hawaii would almost certainly make the BCS if they went undefeated, but I don't think they will, and College Football News still thinks Boise will win out and crash the party. They're in the top 25 now, at least.
Finally, here's some of the important bubble games this weekend:
Nevada at New Mexico State (Fri.): This is kind of the "play-off for 4th place on the WAC's bowl list in case we get a BCS berth" game.
Iowa at Northwestern: Both teams would still be in decent shape if they didn't win, but they'll be really good (or in) if they do.
Michigan at Michigan State: The Spartans have to get that 6th win somewhere.
Maryland at North Carolina: Must-win for the Terps.
New Mexico at TCU: Not a must-win for TCU to get eligible, but if they actually want to go to a game, they need it.
Washington at Stanford: I can see Stanford beating Notre Dame OR Cal, but not both. Which means they need this one.
Southern Miss at UAB: If you don't want 7 C-USA teams eligible, this is your best bet.
Any game with a MAC team: Not that I have an idea what any of them mean in the overall picture.