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Around SBN: This Should Encourage Juan Mata

LIFE ON THE MARGINS: THE SCORES ARE WHAT WE THOUGHT THEY WERE

Well, yeah: the weekly obsessing over statistical anomalies and fringe idiosyncracies hasn't abated in any way, but for the first time this season, it was thwarted by the box scores - the finals adhered to the down-to-down numbers completely this week, eerily so, to an extent that disturbs me more than a little. It's like living in Pleasantville - it's all a little too perfect, too neat, all the stats lining up almost exactly the way their scores would lead you to predict, and any second you feel like you might suddenly find yourself among distressingly happy woodland creatures who turn out to worship Satan. Or something like that.


A world where games are decided on blocking and tackling? You gotta get us outta here...
- - -

The best I can do is suggest that Louisville-UConn, in which both teams benefited from bogus calls and scored on defense or special teams; Florida State-Miami, in which both teams scored defensive touchdowns and had short fields on half of their offensive scores; and Florida-Kentucky, in which neither team had much of a prayer of stopping the other, but all of these games were exactly what their box scores suggested. Kentucky may have outgained and out first-downed Florida by sizable margins, but there is nothing flukey about a win by a team that scores on seven of ten possessions without forcing a turnover. Vanderbilt's gain from turnovers does not negate the Commodores' complete stonewalling of South Carolina's offense all afternoon.

North Dakota State did beat Minnesota far more savagely than the statistics suggested; ditto LSU against Auburn in the second half, last second theatrics notwithstanding, and probably also Virginia against Maryland, which produced more to-the-wire drama despite fairly overwhelming statistical advantages for UVA in its second straight one-point win. Still, it takes a special kind of mythological Greek creature to turn the fortune of a game against the grain, and for the first time this year, that mischievous imp took the week off. This really is a crazy season.

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Ohio State-Michigan State
Also a more savage beatdown than the score would indicate (much as I hate to admit it), given that both of MSU's touchdowns came on defense.

by SpartanDan on Oct 23, 2007 7:04 PM EDT reply actions  

The reverse of the Buffalo line watch
USC is an underdog for the first time since the opening game of 2003.

by Tom @ Sunday Morning Quarterback on Oct 23, 2007 9:24 PM EDT reply actions  

Yea SMQ
I was really hoping to see Ohio State this week.  They out-gained the Spartans by 200 some yards despite the touchdown difference!  They had +14 swing points!  I feel like this was our chance to be on there without anything actually bad or embarassing happening.

www.uweekly.com/buck

by OhEssYou on Oct 23, 2007 11:12 PM EDT reply actions  

PSU-36, IU-31
SMQ, I think you should rethink your analysis on the Penn State-Indiana game over the weekend.  Minus the three turnovers and the final possession fumble, IU could win going away (PSU 9 swing points, plus a gift at the end as IU is driving).  I know that IU didn't stop the run in that game, but they did not allow a Mendenhall or Ringer-type long touchdown run that hurt them in their two previous losses.  Ripe for Marginal Victory Status, IMO.

by tsell89 on Oct 24, 2007 10:51 AM EDT reply actions  

I watched that game
and I never thought anything like that. Indiana made some key mistakes, but the yardage and first down totals were dead even. I think it was an evenly played game that turned on Indiana's giveaways, but Penn State only got six points off the fumbles in the second half and I'm not convinced that IU would have won without them, much less "going away."

by SMQ on Oct 24, 2007 11:33 AM EDT up reply actions  

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