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Around SBN: Kentucky Basketball: Where the Wildcats Stand as of Today

THEY ALL FALL DOWN

Or they're chopped, as it were.

It doesn't diminish the chances of the BCS being seized by chaos, but the season does get that much less interesting for Cinderella sympathists and well-wishers (and satirists, if they recognize setbacks), whose last feel-good hopes rest solely with Kansas. But when it wasn't attempting to fumble the game away, there was nothing misleading about Rutgers' win: the Knights adjusted at the half to keep Matt Grothe in the pocket, from whence he demonstrated a consistent inability to make plays (or even try, really, as his habitual attempts at escape continued long after it was clear Rutgers was committed to erecting a virtual cage around his scrambling lanes), and pounded Ray Rice in that old-school, straight-ahead workhorse fashion you don't see much anymore.

In the bigger picture, it's just another reminder among so many this season: you are not your ranking. I thought it was a little bit ironic that Rutgers students started the "O-ver-RA-ted!" chant as the Knights ran the clock out, because it was clear that USF was rated exactly right for what it had accomplished over the first six games. South Florida was a team with two impressive wins over Auburn and West Virginia and no losses; now it's a team with with two impressive wins over Auburn and West Virginia and a loss at Rutgers. It's the same team, and the fleeting assessment/sentiment that named the Bulls the "second-best" team in the country wasn't wrong as some kind of catchall judgment. It was just a snapshot.

I write this as a person who a) is not comfortable with South Florida's success, b) defended the Bulls right to compete for a mythical championship and ranked them second in the nation this week and c) picked USF to lose tonight. I also think there was widespread, quasi-secret acknowledgment that, no, when it was finished, South Florida wouldn't be the number two team by whatever method it's defined, not really, not with the same set of players that lost four times last year in the most successful season in school history, playing now through a series of land mines that had managed to down more promising contenders before them.


It all slips away.
- - -
That didn't stop USF from achieving that high, though, which is an acknowledgement the voters were paying attention, at least, and were open to the blasphemy (and potential commercial disaster) of a South Florida championship if it took care of its business. It didn't, and so traditionalists can breathe easier dropping the upstarts back in their place. But at least the Bulls have the snapshot, and when they work their way into this position again, it never hurts to have a few of those to show.
- - -

Unless you live in a certain area of the country or were specifically seeking it out, you were probably less aware tonight of the latest setback to one of the would-be Cinderellas of the summer, TCU, which turned the ball over four times and fell to 4-4 in a home loss to Utah. The Frogs were favorites in the preseason "BCS Buster" circuit, but have lost their best player under bizarre circumstances, failed to establish the usual running game and suffered highly erratic play from quarterback Andy Dalton - the redshirt freshman was brutal against the Utes, completing just 20 of 45 with four picks and no touchdowns. TCU is 1-3 now in the Mountain West, more losses in half a season than it suffered in its first two full seasons in the conference and three games out of the current lead, and if winless Colorado State wins Saturday at UNLV, the Frogs will find themselves in a tie for last place.

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Resume ranking...
This is my beef with it. Yes USF "beat" Auburn and West Virginia, but they did it due to wacky turnovers and were completely outplayed otherwise in both games...

It just surprises me that someone who devotes so much time every week to show us anomalies in final scores and how the games actually went, can just ignore that and do their rankings based by final score only...

Just seems to take any knowledge/reasoning out of the equation- it's just schedule strength times winning percentage and rank away, no need to watch any games, use any analysis, just get the scores the next day. No fun IMO. Take a chance, tell the world BC is a fraud and rank them 15th based on observation and not the above...

by Pants McPants on Oct 19, 2007 10:30 AM EDT reply actions  

If USF is a fraud
I reflect that by picking them to lose in the future, which I did in this case with Rutgers (and WVU after the Bulls beat Auburn). A win is a win, though - I pay attention to margin of victory, but pointing out the anomalies is for predictive, full-disclosure purposes only. For ranking purposes, it's you're not a fraud until you're proven a fraud. Those games have to count for what they are, which is big wins.

by SMQ on Oct 19, 2007 11:20 AM EDT up reply actions  

It is this thinking -- "observation"....
...that keeps the LSUs and USCs ranked high week after week after losses. Sure LSU has a ton of talent. But their win over Florida was up there in terms of wackiness. They needed a 9:00+ drive in the 4th quarter including a number of 4th down conversations to pull out a win. AFTER Tebow threw a flukish INT that hit someone's helmet and bounced to LSU.

WINNING GAMES is important. How many teams have gone into Auburn for a night game and not pulled out a W? Last year's national championship team for one. And "the most talented 10-2 team in the country" LSU. So when South Florida actually wins, that says something, especially when Auburn goes and beats Florida.

"Close wins" are sometimes more telling about a team than 14-point wins. Did anyone have faith in LSU's offense when it NEEDED to score last week? I sure didn't.

Is BC a fraud? Who knows. The next few weeks will tell.

Maybe there should be a playoff of the top 6-8 teams and we could work this out every year. I think that might be fun.

by CardsFan922 on Oct 19, 2007 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions  

Conceeding
for the moment the contention relating to the relative lack of potency of the LSU offense watching the LSU/Florida actually confirmed and in some way enhanced my prior favorable opinon of LSU.

They were in fact able to control the ball for those 9 minutes and get the 4th downs which speaks in a fairly compelling way to their ability to almost dominate an excellent and very game Florida team and to come back and win in somewhat adverse circumstances.  Florida did have some turnovers but its difficult to argue that these turnover were anywhere near as important to the LSU victory as in USC/Stanford or USF/Auburn.

USC has clearly failed to impress this season even in what should have been fairly easy games and to be fair has not been as well regarded in the blog polls as has LSU.

As a general matter, however, I have been won over more and more to the pure resume approach used by SMQ and am fairly convinced that by weeks 12/13 the teams will be "what thier records say they are" (Kansas and perhaps even Ohio State depending on what happens in the Big Televen being the possible exceptions) if not in all cases "who we thought they were".

by marcillac on Oct 19, 2007 8:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

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